Here comes the "Nuh-uhs". "They can never drop the price that much until the generation is almost over" Lets remember Sony dropped the price $200 in less than one year. Don't think they won't do it again, especially with the line up of games they have coming in 2008 and 2009. A $199 PS3 with the games it has coming will do EXTREMELY well. Also, don't give me the "Sony is bleeding money", because its not true anymore (its debatable as to whether they ever bled money). It's not debatable. Sony lost millions on the PS3 according to their financial reports. If anything, they are now just breaking even, and won't make up the money they lost for a long long time. Also, where is all this Nintendo love coming from? A wacky controller does not make up for the fact that the same system, released as the GameCube didn't do too well. It's not the same system. Better hardware, better software (or at least, will be), new controller. It's a completely different system that is based on the GameCube's hardware. Just because the Wii isn't 25x better (or whatever the PS3 is compared to the PS2) doesn't make it the same system under a new name.

Like I said in another thread and was largely ignored (or called, how was it, "delusional"). The so called casuals don't buy Smash Bros, SMG, Metroid Prime 3, or even Monster Hunter 3. They buy, Cooking Mama, Nintendogs, Wario Ware, Carnival Games, etc. And casuals don't buy FF13, GT5, or even Kingdom Hearts. They buy SpongeBob Square Pants (look it up, it sold a million on the PS2, and I think there were two of them) and Scooby Doo: 100 Frights (sold 1.78 million on the PS2). Usually they might buy Wii Play, but many buy the system for Wii Sports and never buy a single game. I guess a few people are buying a lot of games then, because software sales are very healthy. If you subtract the people buying Wiis for the non-games listed above from the people buying the "real" games (Smash Bros, SMG, etc) you are left with a number of consoles sold at or below that of the GameCube. And if you subtract the number of people buying the PS3 as a blu-ray player, you get less sold than the PS2. Oh wait. And guess what, blue oceans will dry out. The casual gamer is the quickest to get bored.

So in conclusion, the PS2 won on tried and true standards in gaming and broad library. The Wii, because of its novel controller, is currently feeding on a fickle "casual" crowd and a the remaining former GameCube owners. If this was not true we would be seeing "Petition to bring Capcom's Resident Evil 5 to the PS3", or "Why is third party support so bad for the Xbox 360?" But in reality the third parties decide it all, and they have decided (in most instances, Monster Hunter 3 as an example exception) to pass on the Wii and are slowly leaking support back onto the PS3 from the 360. Michael Pachter has said this and gets paid ALOT of money to make such claims. Do you get paid for saying "50 million Wii's by the end of 2009"? I think not. Its economics. Basically, what will the price be of the Wii when the PS3 reaches this sub-$200 level? Will it be at $250 still? Probably not. Its economics.

Here comes the "Nuh-uhs". "They can never drop the price that much until the generation is almost over" Lets remember Sony dropped the price $200 in less than one year. Don't think they won't do it again, especially with the line up of games they have coming in 2008 and 2009. A $199 PS3 with the games it has coming will do EXTREMELY well. Also, don't give me the "Sony is bleeding money", because its not true anymore (its debatable as to whether they ever bled money). Also, where is all this Nintendo love coming from? A wacky controller does not make up for the fact that the same system, released as the GameCube didn't do too well.
So are you saying it will be free in 2 years? Price drops don't follow a linear pattern, $200 cannot just be dropped each year so easily, the main components that were costing so much have been reduced to a few dollars, it will be difficult and take a while before they can drop down to $200, I am sceptical they will go as far as $100 before 2009.
Also the Wii is nothing like the GC, the thing some people don't see is the whole philosophy behind the console, The Wii is not just a GC with different advertising.... Even from a hardware standpoint most of the Wii is different to the GC, it is more powerful and more efficient (as well as the obvious size difference). I'm not going to go beyond the hardware  as it is too complex, but the whole of the Wii from the name and the channel menu, through to the controller and the marketing is entirely different to the GC, and that is what makes the Wii so different from GC.

Like I said in another thread and was largely ignored (or called, how was it, "delusional"). The so called casuals don't buy Smash Bros, SMG, Metroid Prime 3, or even Monster Hunter 3. They buy, Cooking Mama, Nintendogs, Wario Ware, Carnival Games, etc. Usually they might buy Wii Play, but many buy the system for Wii Sports and never buy a single game. If you subtract the people buying Wiis for the non-games listed above from the people buying the "real" games (Smash Bros, SMG, etc) you are left with a number of consoles sold at or below that of the GameCube. And guess what, blue oceans will dry out. The casual gamer is the quickest to get bored.
See the sales numbers really don't agree with you, I am sure there are a lot of people who buy the Wii only for Wii Sports (which is in fact my second fave game of all time after Windwaker), but clearly they are being enticed to buy other games later or else there are not as many of them as you think.... In fact back in the summer Nintendo themselves stated only 5% of Wii owners had not had a console before, and a further 5% had owned a console, but not from the 6th gen, the other 90% can not have all been GC owners because there were, and are way too many of them.... Perhaps since then the percentage of Wii owners who had no console before has increased slightly, but 80%+ of current Wii owners likely had a 6th gen console, 80% of 23 million is over 18 million, you can't be implying all those were GC owners surely?

So in conclusion, the PS2 won on tried and true standards in gaming and broad  library.(I think you will find the Wii's library is just as broad if not more so, the Wii is geting all the shite like the PS2 had (top trumps games, quiz games like buzz etc)as well as the gamers games) The Wii, because of its novel controller, is currently feeding on a fickle "casual" crowd and a the remaining former GameCube owners. (see above)If this was not true we would be seeing "Petition to bring Capcom's Resident Evil 5 to the PS3",(you realise RE5 was being developed before Wii's release) or "Why is third party support so bad for the Xbox 360?"(Erm no, the 360 came out firt, therefore had the luxury of all 3rd party attention early, which helped it bag the sports crowd who buy only sports games but have to have the best tech to play them on)  But in reality the third parties decide it all, and they have decided (in most instances, Monster Hunter 3 as an example exception) to pass on the Wii and are slowly leaking support back onto the PS3 from the 360. (I really don't see this happening, most of the PS3 games I know of had been announced early last year, if not before the Wii release) Michael Pachter has said this and gets paid ALOT of money to make such claims. Do you get paid for saying "50 million Wii's by the end of 2009"? I think not. Its economics.
Pachter? seriously... you know he predicted the PSP to trounce the DS, and also thought the Wii would have succumed to the PS3 before last Christmas.... his monthly numbers are not so bad but anything predicting more than a season into the future means no more than what I can predict myself.