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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo Shares Plunge 17% After Saying Pokemon Go’s Impact Is Limited

OnlyForDisplay on 25 July 2016

I was never under the impression that Nintendo should ever go full mobile to begin with even after the release of Pokémon GO. Their core business value has served them quite well for quite some time. Going onto a platform due to a products immense success does sound well.. but the issue is that said game may not sustain such a high level of success.



If something is not wrong with what Nintendo is doing.. I would suggest that they keep doing that same practice that helped them sustain such success since 1983. Having something like Pokémon GO is icing on the cake for them... at least that is how I see it.



" It has never been about acknowledgement when you achieve something. When you are acknowledged, then and only then can you achieve something. Always have your friends first to achieve your goals later." - OnlyForDisplay

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Train wreck on 25 July 2016
RolStoppable said:
Train wreck said:
The stock drop today is not because of investor's "cashing in" on a stock that has doubled, its about Nintendo's incompetency (which of course has been their theme this generation). For today, they will not be able to leverage any of Pokemon Go's success. Those are Nintendo's words, not some investor.

Nintendo is now 0 for 2 in their personal investment in mobile. Miitomo was a flop and Pokemon Go, while being the runaway success it is, Nintendo will have little to do with it presently or in the future.

Nintendo did not do itself any favors but not announcing any future revisions to sales or profits which tells me that the supposed halo effect that Pokemon Go was supposed to have is not that extensive. The game has been out for 20 days, that is good enough time to revise 3DS hardware and software up if those were going to ride the wave of Pokemon Go's success.

Actually, Nintendo said that what they can leverage from Pokémon Go's success had already been factored into the original guidance. Plus they aren't going to be bullish and make a revision to their forecasts based on a few weeks of Pokémon Go when they've repeatedly missed forecasts in recent years. Had they done that, you would have been the first one to criticize them for it, pointing at the missed forecasts of previous years and stating that it has yet to be seen if Pokémon Go will have sustained success.

The biggest mobile game so far and Nintendo already factored that success into their original guidance?...sounds to me like somebody dropped the ball somewhere. 



Turkish on 25 July 2016

It's risky for Nintendo to be so dependent on mobile sales. The market is very volatile and any fluctuation in demand has big consequences for the company's share price.



kitler53 on 25 July 2016
vivster said:
mountaindewslave said:

its actually kind of a good thing, it dropped because of Nintendo basically blatantly havign to repeatedly explain that they are not getting the majority of revenue from the game. 

Nintendo just bringing people back down to Earth like they always do. they could have BS-ed and made it appear to investors that Pok Go was more of an effect on them than it is but they're straight shooters

Doesn't the publisher usually get a major share, especially when it owns the IP? Or do they need to pay big to google?

niantic is the developer

niantic is the publisher

niantic use the pokemon ip but nintendo doesn't own the pokemon ip,.. they own a 1/3 stake in the company that does.

 

honestly,. i'm surprised nitnendo's share of the pie is as high a 13%.   but whatever,.. i was saying it all of last week.  nintendo didn't have much to do with pokemon go,.. they don't deserve any of the credit.  this project got started when niantic approached the pokemon company.  it is why nintendo's name doesn't appear on the app and why nintendo didn't even mention the game as part of their 5 game mobile stategy.



Ljink96 on 25 July 2016

I was waiting for this to happen. Nintendo was only making 10-20% with the way they've invested in the Pokemon company and Niantic. Apple and Google were making more money on it than Nintendo is and that's not how Nintendo likes to roll and it's not how investors like to roll. It was overvalued and we're seeing the effects of it. Not only is it overvalued but the micro transactions aren't mandatory like in say Candy Crush or CoC. Pokestops almost make the transactions useless unless you're really serious about the game.

It's not Nintendo game, investors should have invested more in Niantic and that's what I think they're going to do. Pokemon Sun and Moon will net Nintendo more money that Go would have for an entire year... Nevertheless, it's still a fun and phoenomenal game that's broken a lot of ground. Let's hope Niantic will improve.



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Pavolink on 25 July 2016

Dream ended too soon...



Proud to be the first cool Nintendo fan ever

Number ONE Zelda fan in the Universe

DKCTF didn't move consoles

Prediction: No Zelda HD for Wii U, quietly moved to the succesor

Predictions for Nintendo NX and Mobile


Teeqoz on 25 July 2016
Train wreck said:
Teeqoz said:

It's about some investors' incompetency in realizing the ownership structure of the Pokemon IP, as well as what this project was to begin with. This was The Pokemon Company's project, not Nintendo's directly. Forum goers like us put two and two together pretty quickly, and suprise surprise, people that frequent a video game sales forum can actually have more extensive knowledge about video games and even the financials of them than your average investor. (FYI, that's how "private" investors can compete with "professional" investors; leverage your expertise and knowledge about certain fields and industries that interest you particularly much. You have an advantage there. Most "professional" investors don't know all sectors extremely well. They know many sectors okay-ish. Meanwhile, a private investor can know a few sectors that interest them very well. Compete in those sectors, don't try and beat them in their own game. Beat them in your game).

 

Nintendo has yet to release any of their own mobile games. They are so far 0/0 in that regard. 

 

Also, first of all, why on earth would Nintendo announce any forevast revisions today, when they are releasing quarterly results this wednesday? Second of all, how do you know that Nintendo hasn't already factored in the umbrella effect of Pokemon Go into their 3DS hardware and software forecasts? They did seem high at the start of the fiscal year (and I stated this when they released it, it's not just me saying it in hindsight).

Coming out Friday after the markets close to announce this is a mystery in itself as you said, they release their earnings Wednesday.  Being a flipflopper (i.e. changing their outlook within 48 hours of saying they wont benefit) will tell everyone that they have no idea how to accurately forcast within their own industry and make it hard for anyone to believe anything they say going forward.

As for private and professional investors, they have the same access to the structure of the Pokemon Company.  Both investores are reacting to what Nintendo said Friday, nothing else.

While they are 0/0 on games (I didn't mention anything about games) their mobile ventures (whether direct or slightly indirect) have been suspect, which can easily call into question the games coming out...fall is right around the corner.

Having access to the same information does not mean everyone has read it. For instance, you have access to Nintendo's message to shareholders about Pokemon GOs impact on their financials, yet you do not appear to have read it. And if you have read it, then there's an even bigger problem here somewhere, because it does not at all support the claims you are making. Here, take a look:

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2016/160722e.pdf



Train wreck on 25 July 2016
RolStoppable said:
Train wreck said:

The biggest mobile game so far and Nintendo already factored that success into their original guidance?...sounds to me like somebody dropped the ball somewhere. 

If that makes you feel better.

Things are looking up for Nintendo either way.

Yes, the bar is set so low, even failures and missteps are considered good news, we know.



tbone51 on 25 July 2016
Train wreck said:
RolStoppable said:

If that makes you feel better.

Things are looking up for Nintendo either way.

Yes, the bar is set so low, even failures and missteps are considered good news, we know.

Such from a Train wreck i would say



Augen on 25 July 2016

I expected a 10% bump, but the mania of it increasing ~100% in a week or so seemed too much.