Well we know it's not MP3. The guys at IGN have been very insistent that A) all 3 will come this year and B) if one gets delayed it will be Mario Galaxy. SSBM seems to be the more hyped game amongst the hardcore crowd and with plenty of non-hardcore stuff coming it would seem to be the better choice for this year.

They actually seem to release all of the big 3 in 2007 - but not at the same month. Metroid comes in August. So Mario in October and Brawl in December maybe?

 Actually I expect Brawl in october, and Mario in November, right before Black Friday

Nintendo doesn't have to worry about running out of big existing franchises. Animal Crossing, Nintendogs, Brain Training and Mario Kart are all a lot bigger than Metroid, for example, and at least as big as Smash. I think Nintendo wants to have a ton of heavy hitters for every Xmas. If they keep coming up with great ideas for Wii-brand games, and reinvent the Zelda franchise like they've said they would for the next iteration, and don't mess up conversions from the handheld world, they should be okay. By 2009 and certainly 2010, third parties ought to have big properties on the system too, so they'll fill in the gaps later in the cycle. Games like Wii Sports, Mario, Smash, Nintendogs, Animal Crossing, Mario Kart and Brain Training are all the type that can keep selling systems for years, too. Its really astonishing how many huge franchises Nintendo has.

I see Mario getting delayed before Smash Bros.

I dunno... we've seen a playable version of Mario galaxy as early as a year ago... at that time, all we had of Smash Bros. was a concept video, and the word was that that's *all* they had of Smash Bros. Granted, Galaxy is going to need more actual level design that Smash Bros., but I'd assume Galaxy would be finished first.

Galaxy is rumored to be released in Japan in October, and Kojima played Super Smash Bros Brawl and said it felt nearly complete. It's possible it'll get a release in November. Who knows!

I agree they don't need to release them to keep up demand for the wii hardware, but I say it's 95+% likely that none of them will be delayed. However, the releases are more to keep the Wii in the top software sales, and they do need them to keep Halo, and some of the other 360/PS3 from dominating the software sales... If they can dominate the software charts this holiday season, it will not matter if nothing is planned for the first half of next year!

I still think one of them will be delayed, hopefully not Mario Galaxy...