You're missing the point, really.  People didn't expect the Wii to succeed, and only in hindsight do people call it a fad.  Did we even know such a thing was possible at the time?  The thing is that success isn't outside the realms of possibility.  Jumpin is probably exaggerating things, but if it were so easy to understand the market, businesses would be successul more often.

Yeah, but do you realize something? All these hopes of NX not failing are based on wishes that something unexpected happens while the predictions on NX failing are all based on cold hard facts about Nintendo's current standing in the gaming industry.

That's why I get really annoyed when my arguments are called baseless speculation.

thats not true, lots of people back then even on this very site were saying it would be a fad and the sales would eventually fizzle. They were right for the most part. Now what people didnt expect was the Wii U to do so poorly, You go from 100mil console sales to 12mil? Not even the biggest Ninty hater could have predicted that.

I guess I thought you were claiming to know it.  I also don't believe we know the likelihood either.  I do think that the trend downwards isn't just a coincidence, but I also don't think it's an inherent trend.

Actually you misunderstood what my point was.  I meant in hindsight that's how people explained the success when they were so sure it was a failure.  They didn't, for the most part, think "it will do well, but it's going to be a fad."  

Not everyone agrees it was necessarily a "fad" but that's a totally different argument that I am not willing to go into.

edit: Put in the wrong word.

Likelihood is not about knowing. It's calculated on cold hard facts. Even if the NX succeeds, the likelyhood still was just 1%. That doesn't make people who bet against it the idiots. That makes them the sensible ones.