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Forums - Gaming - The Nintendo NX will be dead on Arrival.

oniyide on 13 June 2016
Darwinianevolution said:
Considering the same was basically said for almost every Nintendo console after the SNES days (and specially for the Wii, that little box that became the best selling Nintendo home console ever), I would just wait and see.

3 out of 4 consoles didnt do to good. Not a great track record



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vivster on 13 June 2016

I wonder how the comments would be if the Wii only sold 50m units.



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oniyide on 13 June 2016
MDMAlliance said:
vivster said:

Yep. As long as there is the fleeting one time success of the Wii, Nintendo fans will never lose hope.

I guess if NX fails as well, its successor is gonna be a smash hit for sure! Because precedent and brand power have no impact on sales whatsoever.

You're missing the point, really.  People didn't expect the Wii to succeed, and only in hindsight do people call it a fad.  Did we even know such a thing was possible at the time?  The thing is that success isn't outside the realms of possibility.  Jumpin is probably exaggerating things, but if it were so easy to understand the market, businesses would be successul more often.

thats not true, lots of people back then even on this very site were saying it would be a fad and the sales would eventually fizzle. They were right for the most part. Now what people didnt expect was the Wii U to do so poorly, You go from 100mil console sales to 12mil? Not even the biggest Ninty hater could have predicted that.



MDMAlliance on 13 June 2016
vivster said:
MDMAlliance said:

It's a probabilities game, yeah.  However, there are ideas that could be done that we wouldn't think of that are possibly things that can imitate the success of the Wii.   I doubt it, but I don't think I can claim to know how likely it is.  It's something that would be beyond me.

Yeah, but do you realize something? All these hopes of NX not failing are based on wishes that something unexpected happens while the predictions on NX failing are all based on cold hard facts about Nintendo's current standing in the gaming industry.

That's why I get really annoyed when my arguments are called baseless speculation.

I guess I thought you were claiming to know it.  I also don't believe we know the likelihood either.  I do think that the trend downwards isn't just a coincidence, but I also don't think it's an inherent trend.



MDMAlliance on 14 June 2016
oniyide said:
MDMAlliance said:

You're missing the point, really.  People didn't expect the Wii to succeed, and only in hindsight do people call it a fad.  Did we even know such a thing was possible at the time?  The thing is that success isn't outside the realms of possibility.  Jumpin is probably exaggerating things, but if it were so easy to understand the market, businesses would be successul more often.

thats not true, lots of people back then even on this very site were saying it would be a fad and the sales would eventually fizzle. They were right for the most part. Now what people didnt expect was the Wii U to do so poorly, You go from 100mil console sales to 12mil? Not even the biggest Ninty hater could have predicted that.

Actually you misunderstood what my point was.  I meant in hindsight that's how people explained the success when they were so sure it was a failure.  They didn't, for the most part, think "it will do well, but it's going to be a fad."  

Not everyone agrees it was necessarily a "fad" but that's a totally different argument that I am not willing to go into.

edit: Put in the wrong word.



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Ruler on 14 June 2016

nope it wont fail,
it wont even try to compete with both



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vivster on 14 June 2016
MDMAlliance said:
vivster said:

Yeah, but do you realize something? All these hopes of NX not failing are based on wishes that something unexpected happens while the predictions on NX failing are all based on cold hard facts about Nintendo's current standing in the gaming industry.

That's why I get really annoyed when my arguments are called baseless speculation.

I guess I thought you were claiming to know it.  I also don't believe we know the likelihood either.  I do think that the trend downwards isn't just a coincidence, but I also don't think it's an inherent trend.

Likelihood is not about knowing. It's calculated on cold hard facts. Even if the NX succeeds, the likelyhood still was just 1%. That doesn't make people who bet against it the idiots. That makes them the sensible ones.



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oniyide on 14 June 2016
MDMAlliance said:
oniyide said:

thats not true, lots of people back then even on this very site were saying it would be a fad and the sales would eventually fizzle. They were right for the most part. Now what people didnt expect was the Wii U to do so poorly, You go from 100mil console sales to 12mil? Not even the biggest Ninty hater could have predicted that.

Actually you misunderstood what my point was.  I meant in hindsight that's how people explained the success when they were so sure it was a failure.  They didn't, for the most part, think "it will do well, but it's going to be a fad."  

Not everyone agrees it was necessarily a "fad" but that's a totally different argument that I am not willing to go into.

edit: Put in the wrong word.

fair enough, "fad" is a strong term but sales did kind of fall off a cliff



oniyide on 14 June 2016
Ruler said:
nope it wont fail,
it wont even try to compete with both

Wii U didnt compete and it still failed.



MDMAlliance on 14 June 2016
vivster said:
MDMAlliance said:

I guess I thought you were claiming to know it.  I also don't believe we know the likelihood either.  I do think that the trend downwards isn't just a coincidence, but I also don't think it's an inherent trend.

Likelihood is not about knowing. It's calculated on cold hard facts. Even if the NX succeeds, the likelyhood still was just 1%. That doesn't make people who bet against it the idiots. That makes them the sensible ones.

That's the problem, we don't know the likelihood.  The problem is that what the NX is technically already exists, but we don't know what it is.  Therefore we cannot actually talk about cold hard facts about something like that.  Do you get what I mean?