By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales - May 2016 NPD Thread! Hardware and software numbers up!

Teeqoz said:
Aquamarine said:

 

Per the norm with many initial VG Chartz estimates, I'm afraid.

You really can't trust them until they've been revised based on actual market data. Projections based on precedent and intermittent sampling can only get you so far.

It still surprises me though. We got 2.7 million first week from Sony. Using a reasonable digital ratio, that means 2 million physical tops (probably more like 1.9ish), yet VGC ends up with 2.3 million.... How? xD

MAGIC



Just because you have an opinion doesn't mean you are necessarily right.

Around the Network
Aquamarine said:
Dadrik said:

879k with bundles in 3 weeks ?

That would mean there is already like a 100k overtrack so far...

That's kind of a lot

 

SWORDF1SH said:

Lol OK it's overtracked by at least 300k

Per the norm with many initial VG Chartz estimates, I'm afraid.

You really can't trust them until they've been revised based on actual market data. Projections based on precedent and intermittent sampling can only get you so far.

Yeah, should of got the Uncharted 4 data close considering Sony helped them out with the 2.7M announcement. 

Thanks again aqua for the data and effort you've put in. Also nice to read your knowledgeable posts.



jason1637 said:
SWORDF1SH said:

Hopefully Sony don't bundle it because I would like to see how good the legs are and if it gets a decent spike during the holiday. 

Isn't it already bundled?

The LE bundle yes, but that would be bought by people that want the game. I'm talking about what they are doing with cod now and before that TLoU, making the standard bundle come free with a game.



Dadrik said:

MAGIC

Haha! 



Was hoping Uncharted would do a bit better. 870k certainly isn't bad, but it isn't as high as I was expecting.



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

Around the Network
SWORDF1SH said:
jason1637 said:

Well Halo when you look at the install base for the xbox one when halo launched compared to the ps4 when uncharted launched its over a 5ml lead for the ps4. It's not crazy to think that Uncharted could outsell Halo in the US considering that it had the biggest marketing than any other uncharted game and the install base is over 5ml lead when it launched compared to the launch of Halo.

One was released in time for holiday, one was released in May.

One also had a month of sales, another had just a few days.



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

Aquamarine said:
Pavolink said:

So, majority of the forecast is already in inventory?

Yep, Nintendo has ~700K Wii U units in inventory before the fiscal year even began. That's why the projections are so low....they're clearly trying to get rid of the Wii U as soon as logistically possible.

I really need to buy one ASAP. 



My bet with The_Liquid_Laser: I think the Switch won't surpass the PS2 as the best selling system of all time. If it does, I'll play a game of a list that The_Liquid_Laser will provide, I will have to play it for 50 hours or complete it, whatever comes first. 

Shadow1980 said:
RolStoppable said:

They don't need to catch lightning in a bottle to sell considerably more than 100k hardware units per month.

Yeah. They just need to have a system that people besides the most loyal Nintendo fans will buy. If it's going to be gimmick-based and underpowered, the gimmick needs to be some "gee whiz" thing that gets people just as excited as the Wiimote did. If it's some poorly thought-out gimmick like the Wii U gamepad, well, then they're going to have a bad time. Their other alternative is to make a system that is powerful and conventional enough to get third parties on board, because third-party games are that damn important. Such a system might not set the charts on fire like the Wii did, but it should have healthy enough sales to where the system couldn't be realistically seen as a flop. If they can manage at least 40M globally lifetime, that's good enough.

Nintendo has been trending downwards since the NES, the only exception being the Wii. They don't have a sustainable amount of core fans, they've burned bridges with major third parties and their fanbase time and time again, and they completely fail at understanding what their customers want and communicating in an effective manner (how long did we think E3 would be JUST Zelda?)

 

Their core fanbase cannot sustain them, third parties want nothing to do with them, and their entry into mobile was lukewarm at best. The only way they can succeed is if they catch lightning in a bottle again and manage to get a whole new fanbase. You don't cultivate a fanbase and goodwill over night, and it baffles the mind that despite how far they've fallen, they STILL continue to make questionable, sometimes outright idiotic decisions and just bury themselves deeper. 



Thank you aqua for all the data. My go to thread for NPD sales is now vgchartz now .

So thanks a lot again. Can you share any platform exclusive life time sales. Like sunset overdrive, Forza, ryse, tomb raider, drive club, killzone, infamous, etc

Not asking for all of them but any which you can share. Thanks a lot.



Noobie said:
Thank you aqua for all the data. My go to thread for NPD sales is now vgchartz now .

So thanks a lot again. Can you share any platform exclusive life time sales. Like sunset overdrive, Forza, ryse, tomb raider, drive club, killzone, infamous, etc

Not asking for all of them but any which you can share. Thanks a lot.

Remember, I'm not a leaker. I gave up leaking a long time ago when NPD's old management bullied me to no end. Every data point I reveal is sanctioned by The NPD Group, and in general they don't like me revealing LTDs.

Why? It's simple-----LTDs are a much more relevant gauge of success in the retail market than one-month sales. Therefore, they're much more important to NPD clients. In general, The NPD Group does not allow me to share data that would materially impact their business. That means I can't share so much that clients would no longer invest in their datasets.

In that sense, LTDs for larger multiplats are tolerable because many of the multiplat publishers really don't care all that much (for example, GTA V LTD is currently 17.784 million in the USA excluding bundles). However, LTDs for exclusives and smaller titles are much more touchy. For example, Quantum Break's failure in the market reflects really poorly on Microsoft and creates this "Xbox is doomed!" narrative......but the failure of a big multiplat like Battleborn wouldn't create that same sort of drama. And smaller publishers don't tend to like it because a lot of the niche ones have large digital shares...so if something only sold 30K at retail LTD it could have sold like >100K digitally...which for a niche publisher is the difference between a flop and a success. In that sense, retail is inherently misleading.

Although keep in mind, Creamsugar often focuses primarily on exclusives and does yearly 2014 and 2015 updates. For example, we got updates in December 2015 for many of those titles you listed. That's the difference....Creamsugar is an unsanctioned leaker who pisses the administration off....I'm trying to stay within the rules and reach a happy compromise so we can have data.

If you apply basic conjecture using the #10 sales figure that I usually reveal you can easily get to an approximate LTD (or at the very least, a maximum range) from those December 2015 data points. Catalog sales are rather predictable from month to month...you can approximate them quite nicely.

I'll have to re-negotiate with them if I want to share lots of LTDs with you guys. We'll see how it goes.