vivster said:
Mummelmann said: And still there are some who insist that this will be a long generation. Trends are developing precisely as some predicted in here a few years back. |
It will be the longest generation ever. With the PS4 Neo 2 and PS4 Neo 3 prolonging it for another 5 years alone. The generation will be exactly as long as people start realizing that the current arbitrary rules of what constitutes a new generation and what not are silly at best.
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We could do a John Lucas, he claimed that his predicion on the PS3 and 360 "dying" were correct since the Slim versions came out... 
I'm not so sure that we'll see more than one main update (as in a proper hardware upgrade, not just shrunken die and slim versions) and then a new console. They won't lock themselves down to one design paradigm over a decade or more with the speed with which the tech industry is moving now, ending up having a box that has nothing to do with the original PS4, that is still named PS4 makes no sense from a marketing perspective or design perspective. I'm really not sold on the idea, but I have said all along that consoles will rely more on revisions and added features since the smart devices are setting the pace and consoles have placed themselves in the line of fire by offering competing or semi-competitive features and options.
Heck, we don't know anything about the PS4 revision, or the possible Xbox revision, they could be slim consoles with some added features (like 4k movie output and more streamlined VR-friendly setup).
Expecting consoles to stay on for several cycles with only small changes, like mobile phones, is a bit unreasonable since consoles are a much more static product than smart devices, this is also evident in the numerous revisions the 3DS got compared to the home consoles of the 7th gen, for example, as the 3DS competed/competes a lot more closely with tablets and phones.
I still maintain the belief that the 8th gen will be shorter than the 7th gen by a fair margin and that it will die off a lot more abruptly and quickly once new hardware is in place, once more due to the savage pace the industry has to keep up with, and thus also the consumers and overall market.