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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Prediciton: NX will be....

 

Do you agree with that concept?

1. 40 24.10%
 
2. 28 16.87%
 
3. 73 43.98%
 
4. 25 15.06%
 
Total:166
JustBeingReal said:

It’s actually redundant to talk about NX being what you think it will be, because nothing hints at that being the case.

 

There are several hints listed in OP. Your welcome. Im not gonna repeating them.



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I don't think it's likely ARM have won the contract for NX, many signs point to AMD. Digital Foundry have speculated that this means we will have three platforms that are technologically comparable--perhaps even largely identical on an architectural level--but there's also the suggestion that rather than the exact same GPU/CPU combo as the PS4 revision, Nintendo will instead use AMD's new Polaris 11 GPU, which is designed for gaming notebooks. It's the type of chip that would, theoretically, fit in with what Nintendo would look for, IF they were going for PS4/Xbox One level technology. It would allow them to outperform PS4 with a small, lower power, low heat chip. It would also still allow relatively easy porting from one system to another, which is what multi-platform publishers want. How it fits with the idea of a hybrid piece of hardware, though, I don't know. Crucially when NX was first talked about, there was the distinction that 'the platform' is no longer the individual hardware, but the network around which those devices orientate. I am beginning to wonder if a home console launch next March is merely the first of two NX devices we're going to see in 2017.

The real issue here is that we just don't have enough cast-iron details from Nintendo about NX to be sure about what type of hardware they'll launch. Tecmo-Koei suggested NX is a home console, as do many rumours, but then you also have rumours pointing to Nintendo placing large orders for more sophisticated (higher storage) versions of the carts they've been using across DS and 3DS. The timeline for these orders suggests when NX launches next March, the games will be launching on higher capacity carts rather than on optical media. Assuming a similar memory yield increase from DS to 3DS (x16), then the maximum cart size for NX could hypothetically be 128GB. I'd assume the actual range would be 16-64GB, though, and within that range you still have more than enough storage for modern videogames. This might also help Nintendo in reducing the cost of their hardware, by removing the need for an optical drive. We also have to remember optical media is not portable-friendly, so playable cartridges would suggest either we have a hybrid device launching in March 2017, or that many of the same games will be playable on a home and handheld device that will share the same network, development tools, operating system and broadly similar architecture, like iOS devices. iOS devices, are, of course, the example Iwata used in that very first NX briefing.

There are a couple more points I'd throw in here. The advantage of using relatively common mid-tier architecture on PS4 and Xbox One also means those devices have come down in price quite rapidly, and can be refreshed every 3 years or so as die sizes shrink. If we also look at Nintendo's priorities in the next year, NX, financially at least, is intended primarily to replace the revenue stream Wii U should--but has failed to--generate. 3DS is certainly slowing down, but Nintendo are still shipping several million units of their 5 year old portable, with a major franchise (Pokemon) coming at Christmas, whereas Wii U's one remaining major title is coming to NX and has been delayed to 2017. In addition, Nintendo are only shipping a relatively paltry 800,000 Wii U units this financial year and ending Wii U production in March 2018. In addition, smartphone games and digital content are key revenue pillars for Nintendo going forward, and NX will be the first system to benefit from Nintendo's newly unified R&D structure. Quite how the rumours--and Nintendo's own target--of more Nintendo software more often would square with another big jump in technology, I don't know. It may be that internal changes within Nintendo have streamlined development processes, and that lessons many publishers learnt from the transition to HD have now been learnt by Nintendo. Finally, we could also see Nintendo treat some of their major franchises as ongoing services, rather than as single tent-pole releases.

We could have reached the point where Nintendo can launch a system that will match or slightly exceed PS4 and Xbox One (the 2013 models) performance wise, potentially play host to multi-platform games, while managing to launch at $300 or less. $250, I think, is the sweetspot for Nintendo. Let's not forget that Nintendo can produce small, powerful and affordable consoles: just look at GameCube. Nintendo may also subsidise their hardware with a subscription model for Virtual Console (I'm thinking something similar to Amazon Prime here). We are, in many ways, though, in unprecedented territory, and while I initially believed Nintendo would launch a single, low-power hybrid device--a handheld controller with a micro-console unit--I'm no longer convinced that's the case. If anything, the closer we've got to the NX being unveilved, the less sure I am of what it's ultimately going to be. 



hoala said:
JustBeingReal said:

It’s actually redundant to talk about NX being what you think it will be, because nothing hints at that being the case.

 

There are several hints listed in OP. Your welcome. Im not gonna repeating them.

There aren't. If you think your speculations on your assessments of rumors are "hints" then you're gravely mistaken.

 

The fact Kimishima, the current CEO of Nintendo has come right out and stated that Nintendo aren't making another Wii or Wii U, but instead something new disagrees with you entirely.

The history of Nintendo's consoles and the fact that 5 out of 6 have been massively more powerful than previous generations also goes against what you're saying being likely. There's only a 16.66% chance of Nintendo going weak on hardware compared to the competition.

The tech to release a system at least on par with PS4 is cheap, developing games can also be cheap and not require a tonne of resources, indies are a great example of this being true.

 

Nothing hints at Nintendo doing what you claim, everything points to the contrary.



JustBeingReal said:

The fact Kimishima, the current CEO of Nintendo has come right out and stated that Nintendo aren't making another Wii or Wii U, but instead something new disagrees with you entirely.

So a ARM based handheld and "apple tv" like gaming device is the same as the wii and wii u? okay.

 

JustBeingReal said:

The history of Nintendo's consoles and the fact that 5 out of 6 have been massively more powerful than previous generations also goes against what you're saying being likely. There's only a 16.66% chance of Nintendo going weak on hardware compared to the competition.

And that weak console sold almost as much as all other 5 combined.

 

JustBeingReal said:

The tech to release a system at least on par with PS4 is cheap, developing games can also be cheap and not require a tonne of resources, indies are a great example of this being true.

As a console, yes. As a handheld, no.

Like already discussed multiple times the ps4 is in terms of a portable device a bit more powerfull as Nvidia GTX 960m. Notebooks with that GPU costs starting at 600-700$.  And that GPU still needs a big battery (normal battery life is like 1,5 hrs), a fence, ad is relativly big.

So your thinking Nintendo can achieve more power then 700$ notebooks on an smaller device with longer battery power and without fences and sell it for half the priece of that notebooks is nothing but ridiculous.



hoala said:
JustBeingReal said:

The fact Kimishima, the current CEO of Nintendo has come right out and stated that Nintendo aren't making another Wii or Wii U, but instead something new disagrees with you entirely.

So a ARM based handheld and "apple tv" like gaming device is the same as the wii and wii u? okay.

 

JustBeingReal said:

The history of Nintendo's consoles and the fact that 5 out of 6 have been massively more powerful than previous generations also goes against what you're saying being likely. There's only a 16.66% chance of Nintendo going weak on hardware compared to the competition.

And that weak console sold almost as much as all other 5 combined.

 

JustBeingReal said:

The tech to release a system at least on par with PS4 is cheap, developing games can also be cheap and not require a tonne of resources, indies are a great example of this being true.

As a console, yes. As a handheld, no.

Like already discussed multiple times the ps4 is in terms of a portable device a bit more powerfull as Nvidia GTX 960m. Notebooks with that GPU costs starting at 600-700$.  And that GPU still needs a big battery (normal battery life is like 1,5 hrs), a fence, ad is relativly big.

So your thinking Nintendo can achieve more power then 700$ notebooks on an smaller device with longer battery power and without fences and sell it for half the priece of that notebooks is nothing but ridiculous.

Wii and Wii U both had low power, relative to the competition as a trend in their designs, Kimishima stated outright Nintendo aren't doing that with the NX.

Arm hasn't been mentioned by Nintendo as a processor they're considering, they have never been interested in using an Arm processor in their home consoles, they do however have a relations with AMD, dating back to the Gamecube.

 

As for your comment about Wii selling that much, it had the motion controller gimmick, to entice people that weren't traditional gamers to play on a console, a handheld and console device linked by the same library doesn't entice a non-traditional audience of people to game, especially when they use their mobile phones for this.

The 3rd party market consists of significantly more potential customers than Wii had, even now that PS4 and XB1 have clocked up 60 million+ units in sales combined, the console gaming market consists of over 200 million potential console gamers that could buy a device, adding the dedicated gaming handheld market to this gets that number pretty close to 300 million.

Point here is that the audience that bought Wii are largely inconsistant customers within the console space, however the audience that buys consoles and dedicated gaming handhelds have been here for the last 3 generations, so it would make way more sense to target the market that is more likely to buy either a dedicated gaming handheld or console.

 

A part of your theory is the console portion, which would be comparable to Wii or Wii U because of how weak both would still be compared to PS4 and XB1, let alone any future console generation.

Notebooks aren't a relevant example of a device built using the economics of technology available to a dedicated gaming platform holder. RRP prices for a device like that don't reflect what a console ends up costing, the very fact that you use this example as some kind of proof shows you don't really get that Notebook device creators wants to make the most money they can, while maintaining sales of their various Notebook models.

Notebooks or any device in the PC market aren't supported by streams of revenue and profit created by video games software, DLC additions or any other potential merchandise, peripherals etc.

I already pointed exactly how chip prices work out for AMD, how they would add a profit margin and shipment costs, how other components work out cost wise for Nintendo and how a device could end up being that price.

A notebook with PS4 level specs is no example of a devide made by the dedicated gaming platform creator business model, so therefore your point about notebook costs is entirely moot.

I also dealt with the fact that battery tech, with greater longevity than your example exists and just by going to Amazon and searching for dedicated batteries meant for recharging mobile devices we can see that end consumer prices of these devices, with enough power to charge a laptop multiple times over are very cheap. under £30 for a 20,000mah unit, some units with 10,000 mah are under £15, even retail for £10. That price not only includes the cost of the actual power cell, but packaging and shipping costs, profits made by both the device maker and the retailer.

 

You're still yet to answer the question of "what do you mean by a fence", instead you repeatedly ignore the question and don't even bother to deal with it, even when asked by myself and Potato.

 

Both Wii and Wii U were weak technologically, they took the approach by Nintendo of low performance hardware to release cheap, this is exactly the core premise your insisting that your theory of NX would be based on. Cheap to sell to many, but the audience for that market aren't interested in Nintendo any more, they have their mobile phones and tablet devices which cater for their needs in this area.

The dedicated gaming device audience is Nintendo's market and the entire point of continuing to create hardware for this purpose. That very audience are mainly made up of people that buy 3rd party games or the console gamers and still want a dedicated gaming handheld.

The customers that are still yet to move on from PS3 and Xbox 360 would be a large part of that gaming audience, these are the audience Nintendo must be targeting with NX and those people will demand hardware performance in the ball park of at least XB1 and PS4, maybe more, otherwise there's little reason to buy another console.

This Wii U level device you've invented doesn't fill that need, that market is catered to with a modern tablet or mobile phone, especially in 2017.

 

If you reply again, arguing please actually deal with each of my points, rathe than ignore the major ones that you're still yet to actually deal with.



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JustBeingReal, WII U is using an ARM processeur for the OS ... 

----------------------------------------------------------------------

For me, the NX will probably be a HC at first (March) and in October / november Nintendo released a HH ...

HC NX will in my opinion, a Nintendo smartphone, using a proprietary OS, this smartphone will average power but will be particularly optimized thanks to the proprietary OS, ARM type components + MALI GPU ...
the smarphone can be inserted in a pad like this

 

but with a more disign like 2DS or Gamepad ... forming a true HC ...
But smartphone & pad = HC is the first secret of NX ...

The second secret of NX and explains the hybrid machine is a second part which will remain at home, part that is connected to the TV.
I think that this part contain a hard drive for storing games, an Opteron server CPU (for high quality online service without subscription), a graphic part for displaying HC games on TV (probably streaming) .. .

 

So the NX HC will be : 1 smartphone with 1 special pad to transform the smartphone in HC, Accompanied by 1 personal server (storage, online gaming, viewing on TV)
 
 Then in late 2017 (the last secret of NX), Nintendo will release a HH, it will only contain CPU, RAM, GPU and connects via PCI (or equivalent) on the server that accompanies the HC ... for making a powerfull système and be ready for PS5 and Xbox 2 ...
 
 NX HC : 300 $ ...
NX HH : 300 $ ...
;)
  
 


I don't think Nintendo has the balls to enter the smartphone market. They're too afraid of behemoths like Apple and Google to wander into that turf.

If they wanted to do that, they'd be better off just making an NX branded controller that works with existing iPhone/iPad/Galaxy/LG/Sony smartphone devices.

Maaaaaybe I could see a Nintendo branded tablet that can emulate/run Android apps while still utilizing a custom Nintendo OS that Nintendo controls.



Akeos said:

JustBeingReal, WII U is using an ARM processeur for the OS ... 

----------------------------------------------------------------------

For me, the NX will probably be a HC at first (March) and in October / november Nintendo released a HH ...

HC NX will in my opinion, a Nintendo smartphone, using a proprietary OS, this smartphone will average power but will be particularly optimized thanks to the proprietary OS, ARM type components + MALI GPU ...
the smarphone can be inserted in a pad like this

 

but with a more disign like 2DS or Gamepad ... forming a true HC ...
But smartphone & pad = HC is the first secret of NX ...

The second secret of NX and explains the hybrid machine is a second part which will remain at home, part that is connected to the TV.
I think that this part contain a hard drive for storing games, an Opteron server CPU (for high quality online service without subscription), a graphic part for displaying HC games on TV (probably streaming) .. .

 

 

So the NX HC will be : 1 smartphone with 1 special pad to transform the smartphone in HC, Accompanied by 1 personal server (storage, online gaming, viewing on TV)
 
 Then in late 2017 (the last secret of NX), Nintendo will release a HH, it will only contain CPU, RAM, GPU and connects via PCI (or equivalent) on the server that accompanies the HC ... for making a powerfull système and be ready for PS5 and Xbox 2 ...
 
 NX HC : 300 $ ...
NX HH : 300 $ ...
;)

 

I know that, but we're talking about gaming here and Wii U doesn't use it's Arm processor for games or any really CPU intensive tasks.

PS4 has an Arm chip for decoding and encoding tasks, I'm pretty sure XB1 does the same, but both have an SOC, made by AMD, which both use AMD CPUs and GPU tech.

Cost wise it's much cheaper to make a single chip for CPU and GPU needs, especially when it comes to actually building the system, you only need to install one part and the only provider that can really give Nintendo decent CPU and GPU power on a single package are AMD.

There's no real reason for Nintendo to target the mobile gaming and set-top box markets, because people have no reason to spend extra money on such devices, but the dedicated console market is still up for grabs. This is why having reasonable performance is important, Nintendo needs comparable technology to PS4 and XB1 at the least. Going well beyond that, beyond say the rumored PS4K is going to be too costly and 3rd party developers aren't ready to move on yet.

It's cost effective to make a handheld close to XB1 and a console around 2X the performance of PS4, especially in the time frame Nintendo are releasing. The timing doesn't make sense for an Arm based system, it does however make sense for an AMD SOC using Zen and Polaris or using Excavator CPU cores shrunk down to 14nm, along with a Polaris GPU.

 

The tablet market is already flooded, same goes for the set-top box market, dedicate gaming devices, even with Sony and Microsoft's current grip on the console space there's still a big chunk of the market up for grabs, through people that are yet to move on from PS3 and XBox 360, plus people looking to upgrade from their vita or 3DS devices.



Soundwave said:

I don't think Nintendo has the balls to enter the smartphone market. They're too afraid of behemoths like Apple and Google to wander into that turf.

If they wanted to do that, they'd be better off just making an NX branded controller that works with existing iPhone/iPad/Galaxy/LG/Sony smartphone devices.

Maaaaaybe I could see a Nintendo branded tablet that can emulate/run Android apps while still utilizing a custom Nintendo OS that Nintendo controls.

I don't think Nintendo have any choise... 

DS 150 millions 

3DS 55 millions...

Smartphones are what Apple and Android choise to do... But Nintendo can make a OS with a another philosophy,  more confidentiality,  intégred new technologie, more protection for Child and Web... 

And put in front à lots games with theirs licences,  only on smartphone NX !

If they take only 2% of smartphones business,  it's a lots of millions selling... 



Akeos said:
Soundwave said:

I don't think Nintendo has the balls to enter the smartphone market. They're too afraid of behemoths like Apple and Google to wander into that turf.

If they wanted to do that, they'd be better off just making an NX branded controller that works with existing iPhone/iPad/Galaxy/LG/Sony smartphone devices.

Maaaaaybe I could see a Nintendo branded tablet that can emulate/run Android apps while still utilizing a custom Nintendo OS that Nintendo controls.

I don't think Nintendo have any choise... 

DS 150 millions 

3DS 55 millions...

Smartphones are what Apple and Android choise to do... But Nintendo can make a OS with a another philosophy,  more confidentiality,  intégred new technologie, more protection for Child and Web... 

And put in front à lots games with theirs licences,  only on smartphone NX !

If they take only 2% of smartphones business,  it's a lots of millions selling... 

Microsoft or Blackberry haven't been able to make any headway in the phone market.

People want Apple or Android's ecosystem and nothing but, and Nintendo's brand is too associated with kids to be taken seriously overnight by adults who basically rely on their phone for their entire social and business life. It wouldn't fly and Nintendo has nowhere near the marketing acumen to pull it off.

They have problems selling video games to modern teenagers ... as a video game company. Good luck with phones and adults.

Like I said if they wanted to go this route the best thing to do would simply be to team up with Apple and/or Samsung and make Nintendo branded controllers for existing phones that people actually want. No one's looked the crappy Wii/3DS/DS/Wii U OS and said "gee I'd love for this to be the OS for my phone which I depend on for my job and keeping in touch with all my friends". Nintendo can't even get cross platform purchases working seamlessly.