I don't think it's likely ARM have won the contract for NX, many signs point to AMD. Digital Foundry have speculated that this means we will have three platforms that are technologically comparable--perhaps even largely identical on an architectural level--but there's also the suggestion that rather than the exact same GPU/CPU combo as the PS4 revision, Nintendo will instead use AMD's new Polaris 11 GPU, which is designed for gaming notebooks. It's the type of chip that would, theoretically, fit in with what Nintendo would look for, IF they were going for PS4/Xbox One level technology. It would allow them to outperform PS4 with a small, lower power, low heat chip. It would also still allow relatively easy porting from one system to another, which is what multi-platform publishers want. How it fits with the idea of a hybrid piece of hardware, though, I don't know. Crucially when NX was first talked about, there was the distinction that 'the platform' is no longer the individual hardware, but the network around which those devices orientate. I am beginning to wonder if a home console launch next March is merely the first of two NX devices we're going to see in 2017.
The real issue here is that we just don't have enough cast-iron details from Nintendo about NX to be sure about what type of hardware they'll launch. Tecmo-Koei suggested NX is a home console, as do many rumours, but then you also have rumours pointing to Nintendo placing large orders for more sophisticated (higher storage) versions of the carts they've been using across DS and 3DS. The timeline for these orders suggests when NX launches next March, the games will be launching on higher capacity carts rather than on optical media. Assuming a similar memory yield increase from DS to 3DS (x16), then the maximum cart size for NX could hypothetically be 128GB. I'd assume the actual range would be 16-64GB, though, and within that range you still have more than enough storage for modern videogames. This might also help Nintendo in reducing the cost of their hardware, by removing the need for an optical drive. We also have to remember optical media is not portable-friendly, so playable cartridges would suggest either we have a hybrid device launching in March 2017, or that many of the same games will be playable on a home and handheld device that will share the same network, development tools, operating system and broadly similar architecture, like iOS devices. iOS devices, are, of course, the example Iwata used in that very first NX briefing.
There are a couple more points I'd throw in here. The advantage of using relatively common mid-tier architecture on PS4 and Xbox One also means those devices have come down in price quite rapidly, and can be refreshed every 3 years or so as die sizes shrink. If we also look at Nintendo's priorities in the next year, NX, financially at least, is intended primarily to replace the revenue stream Wii U should--but has failed to--generate. 3DS is certainly slowing down, but Nintendo are still shipping several million units of their 5 year old portable, with a major franchise (Pokemon) coming at Christmas, whereas Wii U's one remaining major title is coming to NX and has been delayed to 2017. In addition, Nintendo are only shipping a relatively paltry 800,000 Wii U units this financial year and ending Wii U production in March 2018. In addition, smartphone games and digital content are key revenue pillars for Nintendo going forward, and NX will be the first system to benefit from Nintendo's newly unified R&D structure. Quite how the rumours--and Nintendo's own target--of more Nintendo software more often would square with another big jump in technology, I don't know. It may be that internal changes within Nintendo have streamlined development processes, and that lessons many publishers learnt from the transition to HD have now been learnt by Nintendo. Finally, we could also see Nintendo treat some of their major franchises as ongoing services, rather than as single tent-pole releases.
We could have reached the point where Nintendo can launch a system that will match or slightly exceed PS4 and Xbox One (the 2013 models) performance wise, potentially play host to multi-platform games, while managing to launch at $300 or less. $250, I think, is the sweetspot for Nintendo. Let's not forget that Nintendo can produce small, powerful and affordable consoles: just look at GameCube. Nintendo may also subsidise their hardware with a subscription model for Virtual Console (I'm thinking something similar to Amazon Prime here). We are, in many ways, though, in unprecedented territory, and while I initially believed Nintendo would launch a single, low-power hybrid device--a handheld controller with a micro-console unit--I'm no longer convinced that's the case. If anything, the closer we've got to the NX being unveilved, the less sure I am of what it's ultimately going to be.
