By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - NX 2017 Lineup Predictions

zorg1000 said:

wasnt Wii U down YOY in the 2 months following 3D World release according to NPD?

Also you arent taking into account multiple other things like the releases of Pikmin 3, Luigi U, Wind Waker HD, Wii Party U and a $50 price cut to the deluxe sku and new bundles in the months leading up to 3D World release.

NPD is NA only I looked at global numbers, I also took into account those other games, only WWHD had an impact shifting 70k units and adding some momentum for 3DW to build on, the other games when released had no impact on hardware highlighting them more as decoration titles, the price cut was also unofficial and only done by a certain store for a short time as well as some of these bundles and again I've used data from this very site in the months leading up to 3DW the was only one thing that impacted hardware and the was WWHD.



Around the Network
Wyrdness said:
zorg1000 said:

wasnt Wii U down YOY in the 2 months following 3D World release according to NPD?

Also you arent taking into account multiple other things like the releases of Pikmin 3, Luigi U, Wind Waker HD, Wii Party U and a $50 price cut to the deluxe sku and new bundles in the months leading up to 3D World release.

NPD is NA only I looked at global numbers, I also took into account those other games, only WWHD had an impact shifting 70k units and adding some momentum for 3DW to build on, the other games when released had no impact on hardware highlighting them more as decoration titles, the price cut was also unofficial and only done by a certain store for a short time as well as some of these bundles and again I've used data from this very site in the months leading up to 3DW the was only one thing that impacted hardware and the was WWHD.

the price cut was official, It went from $349 w/Nintendo Land to $299 w/NSMBU+Luigi U.

If youre going to discuss global than you need to acknowledge that the Wii Party U bundle in Japan had a much bigger impact than 3D World.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:

the price cut was official, It went from $349 w/Nintendo Land to $299 w/NSMBU+Luigi U.

If youre going to discuss global than you need to acknowledge that the Wii Party U bundle in Japan had a much bigger impact than 3D World.

The was no price cut in places like the EU and such which leads me to believe it was a one off offer or a retailer themself slashing the price due to the poor sales, you're also missing the whole bloody point it's not what had bigger impact than 3DW it's that NSMBU never had any impact to begin with, if Wii Party did well then it's another game we can add that did something NSMBU didn't.



Wyrdness said:
zorg1000 said:

the price cut was official, It went from $349 w/Nintendo Land to $299 w/NSMBU+Luigi U.

If youre going to discuss global than you need to acknowledge that the Wii Party U bundle in Japan had a much bigger impact than 3D World.

The was no price cut in places like the EU and such which leads me to believe it was a one off offer or a retailer themself slashing the price due to the poor sales, you're also missing the whole bloody point it's not what had bigger impact than 3DW it's that NSMBU never had any impact to begin with, if Wii Party did well then it's another game we can add that did something NSMBU didn't.

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2013-08-28-wii-u-price-cut-announced

http://www.polygon.com/2013/8/28/4667828/wii-u-price-drop

http://www.engadget.com/2013/09/24/japanese-wii-u-bundle-has-it-all/

http://www.nintendolife.com/news/2013/08/nintendo_confirms_wii_u_price_reduction_initiative_in_europe_from_4th_october

it was a global price cut and new bundles in all regions.

You are missing the bloody point which is that there is no data to show that 3D World had any more impact than NSMBU. 

Here are the yearly shipments for Wii U

FY ending Mar 2013-3.45 million

FY ending Mar 2014-2.72 million

FY ending Mar 2015-3.38 million

FY ending Mar 2016-3.26 million

The year that 3D World released was its worst fiscal year.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2013-08-28-wii-u-price-cut-announced

http://www.polygon.com/2013/8/28/4667828/wii-u-price-drop

http://www.engadget.com/2013/09/24/japanese-wii-u-bundle-has-it-all/

http://www.nintendolife.com/news/2013/08/nintendo_confirms_wii_u_price_reduction_initiative_in_europe_from_4th_october

it was a global price cut and new bundles in all regions.

You are missing the bloody point which is that there is no data to show that 3D World had any more impact than NSMBU. 

Here are the yearly shipments for Wii U

FY ending Mar 2013-3.45 million

FY ending Mar 2014-2.72 million

FY ending Mar 2015-3.38 million

FY ending Mar 2016-3.26 million

The year that 3D World released was its worst fiscal year.

Except 3DW didn't have the advantage of early adopters and that year, the flaw in your fiscal year argument is that the first was the launch window, November to March, the second Fiscal Year ironically proves my point on NSMBU as it is March 2013 to March 2014 where NSMBU was the only notable game for the longest time and that's when the early adopters had made their purchases. Well done you've just prove me right and debunked your claim that the's no data backing that NSMBU had less impact as Wii U sold less in the period where NSMBU was the flagship title than any other period, adding the data from this very site a large chunk of the sales in that period came when WWHD and 3DW was release.



Around the Network
Wyrdness said:

That's your view but one I'll never agree with plus you're trying to fill gaps in your argument by bringing in irrelevant arguments like solving all the U's problems which is not even the argument it's whenther NSMBU is really a system seller and I say flat out no it's tried twice on two different platforms and failed to shift either of them. Note how I highlighted the baseline change on an individual basis to show their impact, this makes your response about a combination of games irrelevant as I've highlighted them individually.

Wii U would have sold the same with out NSMBU because all those early sales were as I said early adopters and avid fans, these are the consumers that were always going to buy the platform straight up that's why the was a huge drop off as no consumers outside this group were going to commit yet which is why no new games hurt the system. I agree with him when he implies 3DW would have encouraged some people outside of the avid and early adopters group to commit, NSMB series has shown twice it can only ride the tide and not create it, its sales fooled everyone into thinking it's a system seller, I'll come out and say it you could have released NSMBU after the launch window you would have seen little to no change in hardware sales, in fact they semi did with NSLU which was stand alone as well and had no impact. You see those numbers as a system seller which is understandable Nintendo made the same mistake me personally and some others as well who have said the same see them as a game that's a different kind of animal that sells to who is already there rather than bringing new people in, having higher sales doesn't back your view as it just says NSMB is easier to get into for more people.

It's like my analogy most places sell a lot of chips with their food but the chips aren't the reason people go there hell they probably sell more chips than the individual bits of their meals, NSMB series is like this for its platforms.

 

It's not irrelevant, you claim the drop-off after launch is the fault of NSMBU when it's obviously the fault of no games, which is also how we know the launch and following weeks could only be worse without it, certainly not the same as you say. You claim the baseline changes are solely to the credit of one game as if that's all people buy a console for when the continuing sales of other games clearly prove otherwise.

"3DW would have encouraged some people outside of the avid and early adopters group to commit" because... reasons? I mean we know that's false, the game already came out and did nothing of significance for the Wii U. Like every notable game on the Wii U it's only a system seller in the literal sense, not in the actually matters sense.

NSMB series has shown it can only ride tides twice, really? 3DS hardware sales increased from 100k the week prior to 300k the week NSMB2 released, and the baseline stayed around 200k for the rest of the year. That's definitely a straight up system seller right there especially considering there weren't any other major releases until Sticker Star. NSLU is just glorified dlc.

"different kind of animal that sells to who is already there rather than bringing new people in, having higher sales doesn't back your view as it just says NSMB is easier to get into for more people." Once again that's just your opinion. You nor anyone knows what the people buying these games are thinking. Sales are the only real data we have on the matter, and naturally the more it sells the more systems it sells aswell. I mean you can't believe a game selling 100k can still sell as many systems as one selling 10 million so they're clearly a factor. Though even without lifetime sales, NSMBU has already proven it's a system seller unless you can explain to me what people were buying Wii Us for in it's first year, and I'm not talking just launch, also the 1.5 million Wii U's and 1 million NSMBU's sold in 2013 prior to 3D World. 



Einsam_Delphin said:

 

 

It's not irrelevant, you claim the drop-off after launch is the fault of NSMBU when it's obviously the fault of no games, which is also how we know the launch and following weeks could only be worse without it, certainly not the same as you say. You claim the baseline changes are solely to the credit of one game as if that's all people buy a console for when the continuing sales of other games clearly prove otherwise.

"3DW would have encouraged some people outside of the avid and early adopters group to commit" because... reasons? I mean we know that's false, the game already came out and did nothing of significance for the Wii U. Like every notable game on the Wii U it's only a system seller in the literal sense, not in the actually matters sense.

NSMB series has shown it can only ride tides twice, really? 3DS hardware sales increased from 100k the week prior to 300k the week NSMB2 released, and the baseline stayed around 200k for the rest of the year. That's definitely a straight up system seller right there especially considering there weren't any other major releases until Sticker Star. NSLU is just glorified dlc.

"different kind of animal that sells to who is already there rather than bringing new people in, having higher sales doesn't back your view as it just says NSMB is easier to get into for more people." Once again that's just your opinion. You nor anyone knows what the people buying these games are thinking. Sales are the only real data we have on the matter, and naturally the more it sells the more systems it sells aswell. I mean you can't believe a game selling 100k can still sell as many systems as one selling 10 million so they're clearly a factor. Though even without lifetime sales, NSMBU has already proven it's a system seller unless you can explain to me what people were buying Wii Us for in it's first year, and I'm not talking just launch, also the 1.5 million Wii U's and 1 million NSMBU's sold in 2013 prior to 3D World. 

 

It is irrelevant because if NSMBU was the system seller you and Zorg claim it is by using it's sales numbers the U wouldn't have dropped off as hard plain and simple. 3DW being a 3D Mario is more appealing to to commit to buying a new platform for that's why some of those outside early adopters would have commited to buying the platform as 2D platformers straight up are not platform sellers they're userbase sellers.

Sales maybe the only data we have but data can still be ananlyzed with other data, Zorg was kind enough to provide Fiscal data, in the launch window where the early adopters made their purchases in F1 from late November to March we had 3.45m sold, following the launch window in F2 Zorg mentioned it's the worst performing year and tried to blame 3DW right? Wrong F2 is March to March and the game that was the flagship in this period was NSMBU with nothing else and to top it off the main bulk of the sales came in the period of WWHD, 3DW and Wii Party's release. I also don't claim baseline changes are credit to one game I individually highlight the inffluence certain games releases had on the baseline hence why my point is NSMBU is not a system seller like other games in the library.

I've explained to you already the early sales were early adopters if you don't understand this than that's not a rebuttal of any sort against my stance nor is it my problem, the Fiscal data highlighting NSMBU by itself had little pulling power outside of early adopters. To answer your question if a platform has 30m users and a game releases and sells 10m but the platform sells 0 units that week it's not a system seller it's a decoration title or userbase seller, if the following month another game is released and sells 2m but200k units of hardware are moved it's a system seller and had more impact.



Wyrdness said:

It is irrelevant because if NSMBU was the system seller you and Zorg claim it is by using it's sales numbers the U wouldn't have dropped off as hard plain and simple. 3DW being a 3D Mario is more appealing to to commit to buying a new platform for that's why some of those outside early adopters would have commited to buying the platform as 2D platformers straight up are not platform sellers they're userbase sellers.

Sales maybe the only data we have but data can still be ananlyzed with other data, Zorg was kind enough to provide Fiscal data, in the launch window where the early adopters made their purchases in F1 from late November to March we had 3.45m sold, following the launch window in F2 Zorg mentioned it's the worst performing year and tried to blame 3DW right? Wrong F2 is March to March and the game that was the flagship in this period was NSMBU with nothing else and to top it off the main bulk of the sales came in the period of WWHD, 3DW and Wii Party's release. I also don't claim baseline changes are credit to one game I individually highlight the inffluence certain games releases had on the baseline hence why my point is NSMBU is not a system seller like other games in the library.

I've explained to you already the early sales were early adopters if you don't understand this than that's not a rebuttal of any sort against my stance nor is it my problem, the Fiscal data highlighting NSMBU by itself had little pulling power outside of early adopters. To answer your question if a platform has 30m users and a game releases and sells 10m but the platform sells 0 units that week it's not a system seller it's a decoration title or userbase seller, if the following month another game is released and sells 2m but200k units of hardware are moved it's a system seller and had more impact.

 

Your claims are mainly just taking advantage of the lack of Wii U sales prior to NSMBU, so we can't 100% know if NSMBU is why Wii U didn't sell even worse, but it's pretty obvious it is, and it can't increase the baseline because there's no baseline to increase. If 3D Mario was significantly more appealing then it'd sell more like MK8 did, simple as that.

I'm sorry but the launch hype thing is so silly. You're implying people bought the Wii U purely because of hype (that games like NSMBU apparently aren't a factor in) and only bought games afterward as an afterthought like "oh yeah, this thing is useless without games huh." Even if that were true, they bought NSMBU specifically instead of other games. Also launch hype doesn't extend past January, so you still need to explain the 1.5 million Wii Us and 1 million NSMBUs. Btw you didn't acknowledge NSMB2, explain that too.

What game has ever sold a million+ week one with zero effect on hardware? Your example just isn't realistic.



Einsam_Delphin said:

 

Your claims are mainly just taking advantage of the lack of Wii U sales prior to NSMBU, so we can't 100% know if NSMBU is why Wii U didn't sell even worse, but it's pretty obvious it is, and it can't increase the baseline because there's no baseline to increase. If 3D Mario was significantly more appealing then it'd sell more like MK8 did, simple as that.

I'm sorry but the launch hype thing is so silly. You're implying people bought the Wii U purely because of hype (that games like NSMBU apparently aren't a factor in) and only bought games afterward as an afterthought like "oh yeah, this thing is useless without games huh." Even if that were true, they bought NSMBU specifically instead of other games. Also launch hype doesn't extend past January, so you still need to explain the 1.5 million Wii Us and 1 million NSMBUs. Btw you didn't acknowledge NSMB2, explain that too.

What game has ever sold a million+ week one with zero effect on hardware? Your example just isn't realistic.

Such a weak argument, it can't be a system seller because it doesn't sell like MK8? We'll pretend you didn't even type this, a system seller doesn't have to sell more then a userbase seller to have more impact.

Are you new to gaming? Early adoters have been around for decades and yes they do buy consoles based off hype or their preference for the company it's laughable you're trying to suggest it isn't possible especially when on this very site the have been people pissed off because NX is coming and they bought the platform years back for the new Zelda. The arguments going on right now because some people still believe the's much more on the way for Wii U.

According to the global data on this site the end of January is whe the platform dropped to a baseline of 20k and stayed there falling in line with my stance, NSMBU wasn't even in the charting either so the bulk of sales had already happened and it's not hard to explain NSMBU's sales it was the only notable game for early adopters to really buy. NSMB2 also launched the period when the 3DS had its price cut which was a catalyst in spiking sales, the baseline returned to normal shortly afterward and increased heavily when 3DL and MK7 arrived.

A number of shovelware games did it on the Wii.



Wyrdness said:
zorg1000 said:

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2013-08-28-wii-u-price-cut-announced

http://www.polygon.com/2013/8/28/4667828/wii-u-price-drop

http://www.engadget.com/2013/09/24/japanese-wii-u-bundle-has-it-all/

http://www.nintendolife.com/news/2013/08/nintendo_confirms_wii_u_price_reduction_initiative_in_europe_from_4th_october

it was a global price cut and new bundles in all regions.

You are missing the bloody point which is that there is no data to show that 3D World had any more impact than NSMBU. 

Here are the yearly shipments for Wii U

FY ending Mar 2013-3.45 million

FY ending Mar 2014-2.72 million

FY ending Mar 2015-3.38 million

FY ending Mar 2016-3.26 million

The year that 3D World released was its worst fiscal year.

Except 3DW didn't have the advantage of early adopters and that year, the flaw in your fiscal year argument is that the first was the launch window, November to March, the second Fiscal Year ironically proves my point on NSMBU as it is March 2013 to March 2014 where NSMBU was the only notable game for the longest time and that's when the early adopters had made their purchases. Well done you've just prove me right and debunked your claim that the's no data backing that NSMBU had less impact as Wii U sold less in the period where NSMBU was the flagship title than any other period, adding the data from this very site a large chunk of the sales in that period came when WWHD and 3DW was release.

how in the world does that prove you are right? you are seriously making no sense at this point. 



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.