You also need to take into account digital and inaccuracies in tracking. The results would be inconclusive otherwise, thus only the console manufacturers truly know how worth it is.

In addition, getting those people to buy on the console might also get them to buy other stuff on that console. So it really is hard to tell.

I think individual marketing deals by themselves don't achieve much for the one paying the money. Ultimately I think Sony and MS make the marketing deals worth the publisher's while, so any sales that are lost on the opposing platform are compensated by what ever MS/Sony contribute towards marketing (whether that's direct payment to the publisher or funding the marketing campaigns). But one might also consider that for some games the publisher would find it very difficult to run an extensive marketing campaign, and that the extra money from a marketing exclusive allows the publisher to get more ads on TV, more billboards put up and more advertising on the backs of buses and at bus stops. Which leads to over all higher sales than they might have achieved with a lesser marketing campaign. Especially when a game is being released at a crowded time of year and games are actually incompetition with each other for the gamer $$. Did RoTR sales suffer at the end of 2015 because MS put more effort into marketing other games? What if MS put FO4 levels of effort into ROTR and ROTR levels of effort into FO4?

The question is whether the exclusive marketing has a hardware benefit for MS/Sony. I would say in general there isn't one where the exclusivity deal is marketing only. I think there probably is some hardware sales advantage if it's marketing+, where the + is a limited edition console and / or exclusive content. Not sure if there's an advantage from a standard bundle.

Another factor is to look at what countries have the biggest sales for a particular game. A game that gets by far the most sales in the USA (out of proportion to over all US market size compared to the world), is going to have sales more balanced between PS4 and Xb one because the install base there is closer to 50/50 than in the vast majority of markets. And a game that sells primarily in Asia and continental Europe is going to be massively skewed towards PS4. So examining global game sales vs global hardware market share doesn't tell the full story when most games don't have similar tie ratios across all markets.

It would be interesting to speculate how hardware and software sales would be if no one had any marketing exclusives. Would total game sales be lower? Would over all hardware sales be lower or about the same. Would the dominant console be more or less dominant or make no difference? OTOH, if all exclusive marketing went to the dominant console what would be the effect on the non-dominant console? Would the non-dominant console spend more time marketing 3rd party games that don't have marketing exclusivity alongside console exclusive content? And would that compensate for exclusive marketing of the big 3rd party IP.

I think there are far too many variables to exclusive marketing to really draw a solid conclusion about value. But it is always a point of interest when it appears that sales of hardware and software run counter to who has the marketing exclusivity. It is interesting

1: Yes, VGC numbers are initially shit but they tend to be adjusted according to official numbers. Besides they're shit for both consoles so the percentage split is probably acceptable.

2: That's a good point. Marketing deals are definitely here to stay but I hope they slow down a little with the exclusive content. I don't think it's necessary.

3: PS4's market share is 66%. COD BO3 and SW Battlefront have 64% and 69% of its sales on PS4 respectively so I don't know if the marketing has done a huge difference. It's hard to tell. As you said, the numbers could be off.

That's true. Though personally I think the digital percentages are more or less the same on PS4 and XB1 and thus cancel each other out.

Consider what would happen if one console--let's say the PS4 as an example--quit making marketing deals with publishers. Let's consider a period when neither console had any major exclusives scheduled for release.

For the sake of argument, let's give the Xbox One a deal with Ubisoft to market Far Cry 5. During this period, Xbox/Far Cry commercials are everywhere. Microsoft shows it off during their press conferences and floods brick-and-mortar retailers with flair and online gaming sites with banner ads.

How does Sony respond? How do they stay topical and generate hype? Montage ads with past releases? Ads for existing bundles?

I think it's easy to see why they do it. The public perception battle is ongoing and both sides are afraid of losing ground. Out of sight, out of mind. There is no guarantee that it works but no one is willing to risk stopping and finding out that it DOES work and that they've got to play catch-up.

The problem, of course, is that we have no control situation to study. Well, that is, unless you count Nintendo.

@bolded: thats not how this works lol.

i think publishers are also realizing how unnecessary it is, its just a marketing phrase after all. "exclusive content" it just rings well marketing wise. its usually just a mission or two, and not very good ones either. but its just there to be used as "Y console is the best place to play this game! due to exclusive content!".  but i doubt MS or Sony really believe that anybody cares about them or is willing to buy their conole due to these "exclusive content"

i was talking about the bundles with CoD and SW. they did really well, overall software sales and splits wont get effected much by these bundles. 

to try elaborate my point more, when you think about Assassins Creed, Call of Duty, Fifa, Grand Theft Auto and Need For Speed. what consoles did you think about? most likely Playstation and Xbox. why? because while these franchise are multiplatform, and release on PC and even some released on Nintendo, its MS and Sony's heavy Marketing push behind these franchises that associate them with their brands. even though not one of these games are exclusive. 

now think Minecraft, Just Dance, Diablo, The Sims and Skylanders, and Playstation/Xbox wont be at the back of your mind as much as they did with the earlier bunch of games. because, while these games released on consoles (Diablo 3 and some sims games did). you didnt have any marketing deals making you associate them with consoles as heavily as CoD and Assassins Creed. and that what marketing deals are for. 

Many interesting points. Maybe you're right. Maybe e.g. Bethesda does receive more money from Microsoft marketing Fallout 4 with XB1 (than they would from Sony). And in that case, they wouldn't care as much about receiving less advertisement (e.g. on youtube where PS has over 4 mill subs and Xbox 1.3) and perhaps selling fewer Fallout 4+console bundles.

That's true. Often it just seems that the only thing impacting the % split is the sale of the official "limited" bundles. But yeah of course there's perception, brand identity, general PR and all that stuff as well.

"thats not how this works lol."
How does it work then?

Bolded: I hope Sony/MS/Nintendo realise this as well.

The Division became best selling new IP with $330 mill ww in 5 days. It seems like the game sold the most on PS4 even in areas where XB1 has a healthy market share. I thought that e.g. Bethesda missed out on a huge potential by not making a marketing deal with Sony and PS4 to take advantage of PS4's momentum but The Division shows that sales probably wouldn't be that different.

LATEST UK SOFTWARE CHARTS
 
TOP 40 ENTERTAINMENT SOFTWARE - INDIVIDUAL FORMATS (UNITS), WEEK ENDING 19 March 2016

LW		TW			Title	Format	Label	Publisher
1		1			TOM CLANCY'S THE DIVISION	PS4	UBISOFT	UBISOFT
2		2			TOM CLANCY'S THE DIVISION	XB ONE	UBISOFT	UBISOFT
-		3			EA SPORTS UFC 2	PS4	EA SPORTS	ELECTRONIC ARTS
-		4			EA SPORTS UFC 2	XB ONE	EA SPORTS	ELECTRONIC ARTS
-		5			POKKEN TOURNAMENT	WII U	NINTENDO	NINTENDO
3		6			FAR CRY PRIMAL	PS4	UBISOFT	UBISOFT

Link: https://www.chart-track.co.uk/index.jsp?c=p/software/uk/latest/index_test.jsp&ct=110032