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Forums - Gaming - My prediction of Xenoblade Chronicles X was true.

valborg said:
AlfredoTurkey said:

Xenoblade is NOT a Mario, Donkey Kong or Pikmin IP. It's much more niche and a much, much harder sell. I don't think the "Nintendo legs" argument will hold true in this instance. 

Is Pikmin comparable to Mario and Donkey though? I had never heard about Pikmin before I got a wiiu but xenoblade I had heard a lot about since the wii days.

For those of us who are big Nintendo fans, Pikmin is well known. I was playing the original back on the Gamecube and Nintendo even used them to launch the opening of one of their E3s awhile back. 



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AlfredoTurkey said:
Nautilus said:
Wont reach 1 Million?lol

First, the game has just launched about 3 months ago and you are already saying that?Give it more time.A year at least.As we all know, Nintendo games have legs, and this will be no exception.Slow legs, but it has.

Second:It is already at 760k physical only.Digital numbers should be significant.For example, we know that in Japan the game has sold at least 30k(actuaslly is 23k, but to make the number more pretty, raised to 30k).And thats just the number of around 1 month worth of sale.Imagine if you put the rest of Japan digital sales and the rest of the world.The number should be closer to 900k.

Third:Its been 3 months for gods sake.DK TF took a while to get past 1 million didnt it?Or Captain Toad.Or Pikmin 3.Give it time.

The question you should be asking is how much further from 1 million can it make.Unfortunally not that much, but hey, who knows

Xenoblade is NOT a Mario, Donkey Kong or Pikmin IP. It's much more niche and a much, much harder sell. I don't think the "Nintendo legs" argument will hold true in this instance. 

It is not a Mario or Donkey Kong, but is it really more niche than Pikmin?Pikmin is beloved by many Nintendo fans, but so is Xenoblade Chronicles(the first one).If Pikmin manages to have legs, I cant see why X cant.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Nintation360 said:

Well I predicted that Xenoblade Chronicles X WON'T sell over 1 Million times and I was right! I really wanted the Xenoblade series to have a much larger fanbase! It's been almost a month now and we only seen about 10k rise in sales. So I'm confirming myself it won't ever sell 1 Million lifetime.

I didn't get the game myself because I was interested in getting other games at the time. and I probably won't ever get it unless it recieves a price drop on a sale or something.  

Great.... >_> seriously go support it, its a fantastic game.

Nintendo dont have to many rpgs left, and if you like nintendo & rpgs, you really should get this one.



johnsobas said:
Nogamez said:
My guess is its overtracked like bayonetta 2
I guess we will have to wait for official numbers from nintendo

well this thread is based on vgchartz numbers.  We know it was overtracked in december in the US and it's overtracked in Japan though not by a huge amount.   I really don't understand why these numbers haven't been fixed but whatever.  It's not hugely overtracked though because it still sold 200k december NPD and 117k LTD in Japan plus 40k at launch in France and it charted well elsewhere in Europe.  We actually have somewhere to start with the sales on this game unlike some other games.  

I can see it being a tad overtracked in US(and even then NPD said it was 200k+, so it could tecnically be on track),but from where did you get that Japan number?As far as Im aware, XCX reached that numbers in weeks according to media Create.After that, we dont know.So its completely possible it being at 140k



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Nautilus said:
johnsobas said:

well this thread is based on vgchartz numbers.  We know it was overtracked in december in the US and it's overtracked in Japan though not by a huge amount.   I really don't understand why these numbers haven't been fixed but whatever.  It's not hugely overtracked though because it still sold 200k december NPD and 117k LTD in Japan plus 40k at launch in France and it charted well elsewhere in Europe.  We actually have somewhere to start with the sales on this game unlike some other games.  

I can see it being a tad overtracked in US(and even then NPD said it was 200k+, so it could tecnically be on track),but from where did you get that Japan number?As far as Im aware, XCX reached that numbers in weeks according to media Create.After that, we dont know.So its completely possible it being at 140k

the japan number is from the famitsu top 100 for 2015.  I was doing it  by memory, the actual number is 114k, and yes the legs were terrible.



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

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I bought it, because if Nintendo release an ambitious, mature game, you buy it.



johnsobas said:
Nautilus said:

I can see it being a tad overtracked in US(and even then NPD said it was 200k+, so it could tecnically be on track),but from where did you get that Japan number?As far as Im aware, XCX reached that numbers in weeks according to media Create.After that, we dont know.So its completely possible it being at 140k

the japan number is from the famitsu top 100 for 2015.  I was doing it  by memory, the actual number is 114k, and yes the legs were terrible.

Can you send me a link then?Because all I can find(im on mobile so its harder) its the top 100 first half of 2015.In which it states that it sold around 110k.I have a hard time believing it sold 4k in 6 months



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Xenoblade Chronicles X has been selling 4000-5000 units a week so far this year, without significant signs of dropping from that (the weakest week was January 24th). It's likely to drop somewhat over the year, but it's looking likely that it'll average in the 3000-4000 area for the non-holiday periods of 2016.

From the latest numbers, there are 35 weeks until the start of November, which means added sales of 100,000 to 140,000, pulling its physical total up to just shy of 900,000.

Somewhere around November 2016 is when the Wii U successor is likely to launch, meaning that Xenoblade X's sales will be somewhat diminished from what they would have been otherwise. It should still keep on selling somewhat, though. The original Xenoblade sold 80,000 copies the December after the Wii U launched.

Xenoblade Chronicles went on to sell 170,000 units the years after the Wii U launched (2013 and out). It's unlikely that the Wii U version will add that much, but it also doesn't need to in order to reach a million.

By physical sales alone, it's not at all unrealistic to imagine its total sales being

760,000 up to February 28th 2016

120,000 from February 28th to November 1st 2016

60,000 from November 1st 2016 to 1st of January 2017

80,000 from 1st of January 2017 and outwards.

For a total of 1.02 million.

The legs I'm suggesting here are lower than the legs of Xenoblade Chronicles, largely because the sequel doesn't seem to have quite the same cult status as the Wii version had. Both the holiday 2016 numbers and the numbers after that could very well be higher, but it depends to a large degree on what happens to the Wii U from then on.

This isn't even including digital numbers. If you add those in, 1 million is virtually guaranteed, assuming VGChartz numbers are correct.

 

Essentially, this means that Xenoblade Chronicles X is likely to end up having sold somewhere between 0% and 20% more than what the Wii version did. If you predicted more than that, you were being quite optimistic. So far in the Wii U's life, only one Wii U sequel to a Wii game has sold more on the Wii U - Rayman Legends (0.65 million) against Rayman Origins (0.58 million).

 

In short, the OP's prediction is what should be the safe hypothesis - the Wii U sequel won't outsell the Wii version. It's looking very possible that he was wrong, and that the Wii U version will in fact outsell the Wii version. It's an interesting position to start an "I was right!" thread from.



Wow. Maybe you should have bought a copy of your own. Why lament a series you're not buying or apparently care about?

I bought the digital version. If I knew that it would affect your opinion of this game I would have got the physical version.



Nautilus said:
johnsobas said:

the japan number is from the famitsu top 100 for 2015.  I was doing it  by memory, the actual number is 114k, and yes the legs were terrible.

Can you send me a link then?Because all I can find(im on mobile so its harder) its the top 100 first half of 2015.In which it states that it sold around 110k.I have a hard time believing it sold 4k in 6 months

Top 100 for 2015 (December 29th, 2014 to December 27th, 2015)

http://www.perfectly-nintendo.com/famitsu-best-sellers-on-wii-u-top-100-for-2015/

 

there is a thread about this somewhere



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X