Maybe not.

But who knows ? Versatile market, 10 year plan, PS3 lite in 2011 ...

u keep using these words, i do not think they mean what you think they mean

ps3 is not ps2 .... look at the data, which suggests a 3mil japanese ltd sales for ps4, not 10-15mil

a) japanese aren't as into consoles as before

b) ps3 is a hardcore, not a casual, console...so their pool of potential buyers has shrunk enormously

u guys do realize that brand isn't everything?  people do look at the actual product itself?  big businesses that were on top for decades go down all the time in EVERY industry...u can't say "they were leaders last  year so they will be this year" and be done with your analysis...yet time and time again the leaders of big companies make that mistake when their industry is changing and don't change with it and they lose huge market share or even have to get out of the industry altogether...sony isn't in that situation, but they also aren't gonna sell 432432423million ps3s because ps2 sold that many...just like nintendo didn't sell nearly as many n64 as snes or gc as n64...and they will sell many more wiis than any of their previous consoles

Bingo. It's pretty irritating to see how many people still think that Final Fantasy single-handedly wins console wars on its own. Final Fantasy has done well for the past decade because the games always appeared on the runaway popular console - to spin this around is to mistake cause and effect. Remember, the Playstation was already outselling the N64 and Saturn in Japan by a ridiculous degree even BEFORE Final Fantasy 7 came out:

Hardware: 25 Jan 1997

Console	Week	Weekly	Total
	113	91,198 (+6%)	5,062,657
	406	83,290 (+52%)	13,984,137
	114	28,227 (+6%)	4,563,489
	32	16,207 (-37%)	1,809,570
	323	7,673 (-37%)	16,413,570
Total	226,595

Weekly hardware sales the week before FF7 released. Pretty obvious who was going to win, right? We'll finally see how Final Fantasy will do when released on a non-dominant console, and it probably won't be very pretty.

Barring some seismic change in the market, the PS3 definitely will not reach 10m in Japan.

This is an often made mistake.

Minna no Golf, Dynasty Warriors, and ProEvo/Winning Eleven are all in the top 10 for the PS2 total sales. Dynasty Warriors and PE/WE even have 3 games in the top 20. Pretty killer if you ask me. None off the PS3 versions off these games didn't even make 500.000.

The most important game is moved to DS (DQIX) and Kingdom Hearts is definitely not certain for PS3.

Sure Final Fantasy and Gran Turismo are very big (bigger than the afforementioned games minus DQ), and will certainly sell consoles, but not lots of millions. The average PS2 FF sold 2.5 million in Japan. Even if FF13 will make that, it won't sell 2 million consoles. I would say 1 million consoles maximum. Gran Turismo sold about 1.4 million on average. If you think it will sell more than a million consoles you'll be dissapointed.

Nope, I'm quite sure it will surpass the GC and possibly the N64 (5.5ish million I think?) but it will not even manage 8 million never mind 10.

It will reach 10 million but not before Sony slims it down and kills off the PS2. I believe its the PS2 that is most hurting the PS3 sales in Japan. It also wouldn't hurt for Sony and publishers to make more games suited for the Japanese market. It seems like there are too many western style games available. Japan has had some big games but nothing like MGS4 or FF13. I'm not sure if HOME will have any effect on the market but I doubt it. In a recent poll, the Japanese have already been shown to not care so much about online features. This must be why companies like Square Enix are focusing more on the western market. The Japanese market has stopped buying hardcore games. :( I blame Wii Fit! A better question would be, "Will the 360 reach 1 million in Japan?" Lol. :)

no way, it won't get close. It's still tracking slightly behind gamecube which barely broke 4 million. I'm sure it will pass the gamecube due to a couple big releases, but not by that much. I'm expecting 5-7 million, my guess is 6 which would make it the highest selling losing console ever.

when the ps2 dies.

when ff13 comes out ps3's will be flyingoff the shelves in japan

PS3 will last longer than gamecube did and also has a lot of room to come down in price unlike the gamecube. So I don't see how you can compare the two. Plus PS3 will have a lot better games.