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It will reach 10 million but not before Sony slims it down and kills off the PS2. I believe its the PS2 that is most hurting the PS3 sales in Japan. It also wouldn't hurt for Sony and publishers to make more games suited for the Japanese market. It seems like there are too many western style games available. Japan has had some big games but nothing like MGS4 or FF13. I'm not sure if HOME will have any effect on the market but I doubt it. In a recent poll, the Japanese have already been shown to not care so much about online features. This must be why companies like Square Enix are focusing more on the western market. The Japanese market has stopped buying hardcore games. :( I blame Wii Fit! A better question would be, "Will the 360 reach 1 million in Japan?" Lol. :)