By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales - What is up with USA Numbers?

Torillian on 22 March 2008
Tavin said:
You always work with error margins in statistics and both VGChartz and NPD are within each others error margins ... so the only problem here is that some people love a company or a console so much that they must see them as the winner against another. PS3 has beaten the 360 all year WW and you don't see 360 fanboys arguing about the numbers

 

That's because they don't have a source that is usually reliable telling them differently.  Don't think for a second that if some reputable company came out with numbers that said 360 was winning WW that no 360 fan would whine about the numbers.

Personally I'm fine with the numbers as they are, and we'll see what happens when the shipment numbers come out.



...

Around the Network
kingofwale on 22 March 2008
iclim4 said:
kingofwale said:
I wrote a bunch of stuff.. but decided to not post it because most of them are based on our speculations on ioi's sources. So there's no point.

All I'm asking is a bit more accuracy. By the end of the month we will have about 10 people banned because of ioi's number. And if you think this thread is bad. Just wait and see if NPD shows a completely different number again.

So this is where it boils down to?
I'm curious, are you one of those 10 people?


Well, I don't want to see an uproar from it. Trust me, people will get pissed.

And no, I was not one of them. I stated that I would bet if it's by NPD's number, but the whole bet wouldn't work on a Weekly basis (one parameter of the bet)



Soriku (Feb 10/08): In 5 years the PS3/360 will be dead.

KH3 bet: "If KH3 comes to Wii exclusive, I will take a 1 month of sig/avatar by otheres open a thread apologize and praise you guys' brilliance." http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?start=50&id=18379
Original cast: Badonkadonkhr, sc94597 allaboutthegames885, kingofwale, Soriku, ctk495, skeezer, RDBRaptor, Mirson,

Episode 1: OOPSY!
selnor: Too Human I even expect 3-4 mill entire life and 500,000 first day. GoW2 ( expect 7 - 9 million entire life and over 2 mill first day), Fable 2 (expect 5-6 million entire life and 1.5 mill fist day) BK3 (expect 4 - 5 mill sales entire life and 1 mill first day).. Tales/IU/TLR should get to 2 or 3 million! post id: 868878
Episode 2:
Letsdance: FFXIII (PS3+360) first week in NA = 286K
According to pre-order rate in week 13 (post id: 2902544)
Final-Fan on 22 March 2008
kingofwale said:
(A), deduction proves are so weak, especially when we don't even agree on whether your 'general statement' is correct or not. Francis Bacon must be crying in his grave when he hears about this.

(B). I am not aware of it. But it's also base on the reason for adjustment. "We miscalculated/miscounted" is always better than "we are adjusting it base on NPD's number"
So you DO deny that a superior sample size combined with inferior methodology can be less accurate than an inferior (but representative) sample size with superior methodology? 

Yes/no answer please, have all the explanation/justification you want but please make the the first word of your response either Yes or No.  

Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

Tavin on 22 March 2008
Torillian said:
Tavin said:
You always work with error margins in statistics and both VGChartz and NPD are within each others error margins ... so the only problem here is that some people love a company or a console so much that they must see them as the winner against another. PS3 has beaten the 360 all year WW and you don't see 360 fanboys arguing about the numbers

 

That's because they don't have a source that is usually reliable telling them differently.  Don't think for a second that if some reputable company came out with numbers that said 360 was winning WW that no 360 fan would whine about the numbers.

Personally I'm fine with the numbers as they are, and we'll see what happens when the shipment numbers come out.


 You're right on that :D



-- Live only for tomorrow, and you will have a lot of empty yesterdays today--

 Tavin:  "Old school megaman is THE BEST megaman"      courtesy of fkusumot :)

My mind has changed. My strength has not.    Kamahl, Fist of Krosa

 

kingofwale on 22 March 2008
Final-Fan said:
kingofwale said:
(A), deduction proves are so weak, especially when we don't even agree on whether your 'general statement' is correct or not. Francis Bacon must be crying in his grave when he hears about this.

(B). I am not aware of it. But it's also base on the reason for adjustment. "We miscalculated/miscounted" is always better than "we are adjusting it base on NPD's number"
So you DO deny that a superior sample size combined with inferior methodology can be less accurate than an inferior (but representative) sample size with superior methodology?

 It depends greatly on the amount of the data and the 'inferiority' of the method. And considering that you have absolutely 0 proof of accusing NPD of having any kind of flaws in their methodology, the statement would not stand for a second.

 

IN fact, ioi has repeatedly stated that he uses the same method as NPD, but with considerable less data. 



Soriku (Feb 10/08): In 5 years the PS3/360 will be dead.

KH3 bet: "If KH3 comes to Wii exclusive, I will take a 1 month of sig/avatar by otheres open a thread apologize and praise you guys' brilliance." http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?start=50&id=18379
Original cast: Badonkadonkhr, sc94597 allaboutthegames885, kingofwale, Soriku, ctk495, skeezer, RDBRaptor, Mirson,

Episode 1: OOPSY!
selnor: Too Human I even expect 3-4 mill entire life and 500,000 first day. GoW2 ( expect 7 - 9 million entire life and over 2 mill first day), Fable 2 (expect 5-6 million entire life and 1.5 mill fist day) BK3 (expect 4 - 5 mill sales entire life and 1 mill first day).. Tales/IU/TLR should get to 2 or 3 million! post id: 868878
Episode 2:
Letsdance: FFXIII (PS3+360) first week in NA = 286K
According to pre-order rate in week 13 (post id: 2902544)
Around the Network
Final-Fan on 22 March 2008
kingofwale said:
Final-Fan said:
kingofwale said:
(A), deduction proves are so weak, especially when we don't even agree on whether your 'general statement' is correct or not. Francis Bacon must be crying in his grave when he hears about this.

(B). I am not aware of it. But it's also base on the reason for adjustment. "We miscalculated/miscounted" is always better than "we are adjusting it base on NPD's number"
So you DO deny that a superior sample size combined with inferior methodology can be less accurate than an inferior (but representative) sample size with superior methodology?
No, but It depends greatly on the amount of the data and the 'inferiority' of the method. And considering that you have absolutely 0 proof of accusing NPD of having any kind of flaws in their methodology, the statement would not stand for a second.

IN fact, ioi has repeatedly stated that he uses the same method as NPD, but with considerable less data.
Fixed? 

Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

iclim4 on 22 March 2008
kingofwale said:
iclim4 said:
kingofwale said:
I wrote a bunch of stuff.. but decided to not post it because most of them are based on our speculations on ioi's sources. So there's no point.

All I'm asking is a bit more accuracy. By the end of the month we will have about 10 people banned because of ioi's number. And if you think this thread is bad. Just wait and see if NPD shows a completely different number again.

So this is where it boils down to?
I'm curious, are you one of those 10 people?


Well, I don't want to see an uproar from it. Trust me, people will get pissed.

And no, I was not one of them. I stated that I would bet if it's by NPD's number, but the whole bet wouldn't work on a Weekly basis (one parameter of the bet)


I guess people would get pissed, but there wouldn't be any uproar.
If memory serves, trusting VGC numbers was part of the bet.

You know all this complaints I would expect from fanboys or from someone with a hidden agenda.
VGC is within the 10% margin error, yet one side wants to claim victory over the other even in a statistical tie.
If you are simply here for the numbers, you wouldn't have anything to complain about.
What is your reason kingofwale?
What are you trying to achieve by this?(Serious questions, I really am curious)




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                         iclim4 - "The Friends Thread changed my life!" (Pervert Alert!)                                            Tags? 

Louie on 22 March 2008

Okay, to explain things just a little better:

As mentioned before the Playstation 3 and Xbox 360 are selling really head to head in the US and as a result it is very difficult to say that which console is currently selling better. All we can say is that both consoles currently see about the same demand.

The problem: While NPD has the Playstation 3 higher they also don´t use every single source possible and do not have 100% market coverage. So what has VGchartz done to solve the problem? It has talked to many store owners and let me say it vague: The same person that lets his employee write a press release saying a certain console was supply constrained because NPD numbers show them in last place doesn´t necessarily have to agree with those numbers... the same goes for the other two companies.

NPD numbers aren´t official but as the media and the mainstream consumer takes them as official numbers companies have to react to this. All we can basically say is both consoles are currently selling head to head in the US.



Final-Fan on 22 March 2008

And I have been under the impression that ioi has said he uses the same TYPE of method as NPD. I am no statistician, but unless EVERYONE uses the exact same formulae (which I doubt) he doesn't literally use the exact same formula because that is NPD's super secret proprietary method.

Am I wrong?  (<--Seriously, I want to know if I am and please be as specific as possible)



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

kingofwale on 22 March 2008
iclim4 said:
kingofwale said:
iclim4 said:
kingofwale said:
I wrote a bunch of stuff.. but decided to not post it because most of them are based on our speculations on ioi's sources. So there's no point.

All I'm asking is a bit more accuracy. By the end of the month we will have about 10 people banned because of ioi's number. And if you think this thread is bad. Just wait and see if NPD shows a completely different number again.

So this is where it boils down to?
I'm curious, are you one of those 10 people?


Well, I don't want to see an uproar from it. Trust me, people will get pissed.

And no, I was not one of them. I stated that I would bet if it's by NPD's number, but the whole bet wouldn't work on a Weekly basis (one parameter of the bet)


I guess people would get pissed, but there wouldn't be any uproar.
If memory serves, trusting VGC numbers was part of the bet.

You know all this complaints I would expect from fanboys or from someone with a hidden agenda.
VGC is within the 10% margin error, yet one side wants to claim victory over the other even in a statistical tie.
If you are simply here for the numbers, you wouldn't have anything to complain about.
What is your reason kingofwale?
What are you trying to achieve by this?(Serious questions, I really am curious)


 Well, I hope everyone in the bet is aware of that. If they do, then there won't be a problem. My suspection tells me otherwise.

 My agenda? Well, 2.

1. Of course, wanting more accurate data on a week to week basis, NPD's number is monthly only and that's way too much waiting time for my generation.

2. I was hoping to show a 'trend' in cosumer's purchases. I.E: "Since Blu-Ray won the format war, people have been buying more PS3 in US". And for last 2 months. the trend has been present and VGC failed to show it.  That's why I came to this website in the first place. Frankly, does it matter to me if PS3 overtracked/undertracked by 100k? Not really, but I would love to know any shift in consumer's desire for a console.

In another word, when GTAIV comes out, I would like to see a trend too.

Hope that's explained fully. 



Soriku (Feb 10/08): In 5 years the PS3/360 will be dead.

KH3 bet: "If KH3 comes to Wii exclusive, I will take a 1 month of sig/avatar by otheres open a thread apologize and praise you guys' brilliance." http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?start=50&id=18379
Original cast: Badonkadonkhr, sc94597 allaboutthegames885, kingofwale, Soriku, ctk495, skeezer, RDBRaptor, Mirson,

Episode 1: OOPSY!
selnor: Too Human I even expect 3-4 mill entire life and 500,000 first day. GoW2 ( expect 7 - 9 million entire life and over 2 mill first day), Fable 2 (expect 5-6 million entire life and 1.5 mill fist day) BK3 (expect 4 - 5 mill sales entire life and 1 mill first day).. Tales/IU/TLR should get to 2 or 3 million! post id: 868878
Episode 2:
Letsdance: FFXIII (PS3+360) first week in NA = 286K
According to pre-order rate in week 13 (post id: 2902544)