Teeqoz said:
Groundking said:
What complications that are undeniably related to manmade activities? If you're talking about oil spill and things of that nature fine, but what does that have to do with 'climate change'. There actually haven't been an increase in extreme weather, the number of storms each year is dropping. Sea levels are risin a miniscule ammount since we started pumping CO2 into the atmosphere, they rose far more rapidly at the end of the last ice age 10000 years ago. Deserts are spreading due to piss poor land use and deforistation, NOT due to 'climate change'. What if the preventitive measures cause more harm than doing nothing?
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I went a bit beyond just climate change and talked abit about general environmental issues caused by man. I'm not gonna bother giving you specific examples, but I'll help you out a bit:
http://lmgtfy.com/?q=environmental+issues+cause+by+humans
And there has been an increase in extreme weather events. Here's a graph for average extreme weather events per year in the named decade:
Not sure which universe that trend is going downwards, but whatever.
Sea levels have risen more in the past yes, that does not mean we should just ignore that it is rising now. Deserts are spreading both because of poor resource management, but also because of an increase in average temperature, which leads to a drier climate. Climate change isn't even a question. The only thing that is even up for debate is if it's manmade or not. If you choose to believe that warmer temperatures in desert areas doesn't contribute to deserts spreading, um, okay then.
What preventative measures could lead to more harm (by reducing the amount of greenhouse gases we emit) than continuing the way we are doing right now?
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Yes, I conceeded that you might be talking about thing outside of climate change/global warming/whatever, but what relavance does that have to climate change? The climate can't be 'destroyed' to the point it's unfixable, other than killing ourselves, but in the future it will either facilitate life at this new level, and the future life will help keep the climate that this level, or it will change again, most likely towards what has been 'common' on the planet before, and life will go on. But yes, we have caused environmental catastrophes towards the standards WE need to live, but that doesn't mean that the standards aren't good if not great to other organisms. A perfect example is radiation and Chernobyl, Mushrooms are thriving in and around the reactor core due to the higher radiation which these organisms feed off of. Also the exclusion zone has allowed animals to live in this area, now whether or not they're thriving, or the area is acting like a black hole for animals, is yet to be determined, but people are reasurching this stuff, so there you go, what's bad for us, isn't necessarily bad for other organisms. Having said this I am, somewhat, a Humanists, and technology massively improved our standard of living, and when technology goes wrong, technology makes it massively easier to correct these problems. So I don't really see what you problem is with man causing 'environmental issues' as those issues can be resolved by man, and we then have a better understanding so that the environment is improved for us.
First of, source for this graph, second, how do you define 'extreme weather event'. Finally is it not possible, at ALL, that maybe, just maybe, we've become far far better at detecting global extreme weather events? Now for some actual sourced graphs, would you agree that catagory 3 and stronger hurricanes are a pretty major 'extreme weather' event? IF so then surely in the past 60 years, during which the majority of the CO2 which has been released has been released in this period, IF 'climate change' and 'global warming' leads to an increase in 'extreme weather events' then surely the total number, and the number of major hurricanes in the atlantic basin will have gone up right?
Source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/hurricane-climatology.html
I'm sorry but not even the best statisticion could massage this set of data to show an increase in either the number of total hurricanes or the Major hurricanes. So no I highly doubt that extreme weather events have increased.
Does a warmer climate REALLY lead to a drier climate? Come on, even a primary school kid could tell you that a warmer planet will lead to more evaporation, leading to a WETTER climate. I mean FFS nobody thinks that a warmer planet will be drier. And you know, that even contradicts what you think about the climate change, if the climate is drier, there's less capacity for extreme weather events (outside of if you consider droughts extreme weather events, but with modern technology they really aren't an issue, almost nobody in the developed world dies of drought any more, and people in the developing world, surprisingly, find drought easier to cope with as compared to extreme cold events). And how on earth do you even try and combat the idea of if the temperature is warmer, deserts will spread, as deserts are formed due to warm air which has already lost its moisture at the equator is falling on a land, hense why deserts (by the traditional thinking, as in the Sahara and Khalahari, you do get some deserts simply due to geograpy, such as the Gobi desert, which is due to the Himalayas) allways occur around the tropics. Now once you know this information then surely for the deserts to spread, the wet zones north and south need to decrease? But if we have a warmer, wetter climate isn't it a possibility that these wet zones will widen, reducing the deserts?
No climate change isn't a question, never said it was (and IF I did, I appologise as the post was written in spurts between bits of work, and it would have been a faux par for me to write that), the climate always changes, it did so before us, and will do so forever after us, I don't think we even have a debate that we don't contribute to the climate, as we clearly do locally with all our big cities becoming heat islands, the debate is whether or no we are the driving force behind the current warming, and I simply don't beleive we are, then the question is do we contribute, maybe? but the system is so complex we don't know, at all, and if we DO, how much?
Reducing CO2 emmissions globally will only happen if the developing world agrees to follow suit with the west, if the developing world does this people WILL die as would otherwise, this is inevatable, as without plentiful access to the cheapest forms of energy, which are currently the fossil fuels, which emmit CO2 when burnt, their economies can't develop as much as otherwise, so these countries are more at risk to all extreme events, as they don't have as much economic might to cope with these things. There's a reason that climate related deaths have dramatically fallen since we've started emmitting CO2, as this cheap form of dense energy gives us far more capacity to do work that other wise, and this capacity helps protect people from the effects of disasters
pokoko said:
I say "minimized damage" and people take it as "massive restrictions that will kill millions of people"? This is why I hate this topic. People pick a side and then they defend that side with everything they can find while discarding and throwing away everything that even hints at being not supportive of their agenda. It's a waste of time. I mean, you're really telling me that there are no pollutants that have not damaged the environment? That acid rain has been a positive? That the DDT pesticides that were wiping out birds were a good thing? Okay, man
For some reason my multi-qoute messed up, so I'm replying here:
Yes I know you said minimizing the damage, this is what I'm arguing against. Am I right in saying that you're trying to say to minimize the damage that an increase in temperature will bring? If not then I appologise, but if SO, then what I'm trying to say is that what if the least damage, and the only valid way to measure this is deaths and injuries WITHOUT doing anything vs deaths and injuries WITH doing something. And my argument is that a lot more people in the developing world WILL die if you try to minimize the damage, as the west reducing emmissions isn't going to do shit when you have the majority of the globe power hunger and poor, they're going to go for the cheapest form of electricity and power, which comes from CO2 emitting fossil fuels. If somebody provided irrefutable evidence that an increase in global temperatures is GUARENTEED to happen if we proceed the way we are, and that it's GUARENTEED to be disastrous for Human kind, then i would be in full support of trying to reduce CO2 emissions, but there simply is no good evidence for it, as the only evidence we have is the crap climate model predictions, which have been wrong time and time again, and they can't even model the climate backwards to any accuracy, they're that shit.
And this is what I'm trying to say about the environment, yes there have been pollutants that have effected the environment to OUR standards, and it's a good thing that we have corrected these mistakes, BUT and this is a big BUT, not all environments benefit all organisms, SOME organisms thrive in a more acidic environment, so again how has the environment been damaged, as the environment is all relative to the standards that the organism judging the environment holds and needs to thrive for themselves. WE can only damage the environment towards our standards, we can not damage the environment in general, as there are too many standards for this. But I DO agree wholeheartedly in reducing environmentally damaging pollution that damages the environment against our standards, IE it makes life harder for us to thrive in the new environment.
EpicRandy said:
Groundking said:
4) Of course alarmism has risen, can't sell you shit if you don't feel like there's a need for said shit.
5) Of course it politics, or do you not realise which countries look to suffer the most due to the demonizing of fossil fuels, oh yes that's right, the developing world, and what does the developing world offer? Competition to the established, it's all away of reducing the competitive edge these developing countries have over the developed.
6) And this is the right way to think, thank you very much for this, of course CO2 doesn't have a drastic effect on the temperature, I mean ffs how on earth is a gass that makes up only 0.00004% of the atmosphere supposed to have any real effect on the temperature when compared to the fact that we have a big massive open fussion reactor in the sky that fluctuates in output constantly. I mean FFS come on people.
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I agree there's a lots of unknow but your argumentation is just based on misinformation and discrediting all argument that does not fit your agenda. You cannot prove your point, nor prove the argument you try to discredit wrong.
1) So it's false because we do not know if this apply to an open system??? Yet we do not have any indication that it will act differently than in an enclosed test system. So you're saying it's a false claim because we don't know??? How does this prove it has a false claim.
2)That's made me laugh, both CO2 and temperature increase simultaneously there's is no way you could say that the temperature is the cause. it's not like one year the temperature increase and the next the co2 rise followed by a year where both are stable. But hey maybe you're right, have you any source backing up this claim?
3)Model and estimation are what they are. They're imperfect, and prompt to reajustement and that's true in any field for any models that have been made since the beginning of civilization. It's not like they are windows to directly witness the future.
4) Well alarmist are alarmist and negationist are negationist I guess. But in doubts your better safe than sorry.
5) That's exactly why action against climate change must contains measures to helps develloping country like they will in the future.
6) So because number are small in relative perspective they should be discredited. Do you know how much cyanide it take to kill someone and the % it represent vs the human body?
Edit: I recommend watching this video : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWXoRSIxyIU
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1) No, it's a false assumption, not a false claim, there's a difference, we simply do know know enough about how CO2 acts in an open system to claim that and increase in CO2 in the atmosphere leads to an increase in temperatures, there are simply too many other factors. It's what is assumed DUE to the closed system tests. This is critical thinking, something science prides itself on, well science minus all the environmentallist climate scientists that rabbit on about CO2. Personally I think it's LIKELY, but not certain, that CO2 does indeed lead to warmer temperatures, all I'm trying to say is that because one thing does XYZ in one system, it's not certain to do XYZ in the other system.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/628524/Climate-change-shock-Burning-fossil-fuels-COOLs-planet-says-NASA
Whilst this doesn't dispute the claimed effects of CO2 on the atmosphere, it does show that the use of fossil fuels as a driver of climate change due to CO2 emissions isn't a cut and dried as you thing, as that are lots and lots of different factors at play.
2) No they don't, in case you're wondering, I have got a degree in Environmental Science, and all the data shows that a temperature increase PRECEEDS an increase in CO2, I'm NOT saying that the increase in temperature causes the increase in CO2, I'm simply stating that temp increases preceed CO2 increases. There is nothing wrong in saying that.
Callion et al. 2003 (This is the first study showing this, there has been plenty since.
3) No, and that's fine, but you at least hope that the models can have some accuracy in back testing, yet they simply have none, and constantly overpredict everything that happens. You simply can't trust the climate models, and I really don't want to discredit the scientists who made them, as it's an awfully difficult job and they're horrendously complicated, but they're really really shit.
4) But what if doing something to be 'better safe than sorry' causes MORE harm than doing nothing
5) OK that's fine, but do you think, especially with all the negativity surrounding the current levels of foreign aid given, that the populaces of the developed world are going to vote for people who want to give more money to the developing world. Though I do agree we need to help the developing world in general, but they have to help themselves, we can only suggest what to do, but eliminating trade tarrifs would be a great start.
6) No what I'm trying to say, is that is CO2 REALLY the primary driver of climate change, when it's not even a particualrily big componant of not just greenhouse gasses (water vapour is the biggest at 97% IIRC, though that number could be wrong, it's been a while since I looked at it), let alone all the other aspects of what makes the climate the temperature it is.