So what effect do you think the Wii Fit campaign will have on the stock?

If you look at 2008's sales to date, the Wii is hovering at a rate of (roughly) 22 Million units per year when you factor in typical sales trends; this is without a price reduction or any major "system selling" third party exclusive games. I do believe the Wii is fairly close to a peak, but I don't believe it is because of the systems lack of desireability ...

A well known statistic on this site is that in the last generation 75% of all console purchases were made when the system was $200 or less; today 51 Million consoles have been sold, representing approximately 30% of all consoles sold last generation, and not a single system is $200 or less yet. We're at a point where nearly everyone who wants a console and is willing to spend more than $200 to buy one will already own a console ...

Nintendo is in a (very) good position with the Wii because their manufacturing costs are low enough that they can reduce the cost of the console and increase the value of the package at the same time; hypothetically speaking, Nintendo should be able to sell the Wii, with 2 Wiimotes, 2 Nunchucks, Wii Sports and another game for $200 without losing money. Regardless of their approach, Nintendo should be able to (at least) maintain demand for quite some time ...

time to buy Nintendo stock
their fiscal year report next april will be much better than their fiscal year report for this past year that we'll see next month

Wii sales haven't peaked, maybe this year, but not yet. Analysts know nothing.

It is not that Nintendo's stock is in bad shape, it is just cooling off after rising really fast for a really long time.

I'm not convinced Wii will peak in 2008, I think 2009 is more likely based on how well its selling almost 18 months into its life.  Nintendo has said it wants to introduce Wii to markets like China soon, and Gamestop is on record in saying recently that shortages will continue for the next six months at least, which Pachter seems to think is because the '150,000 extra wiis per month that will accompany Wii Fit' sold in the USA will go to big box retailers.

I do think this is going to be Wii's peak holiday worldwide, but I think Wii has to be in stock everywhere in the west for a long period of time before it can be said it is peaking.

The way I look at it is like this:

2004:   

2005:

2006:

2007:

2008 Estimates based on 1st 11 weeks:

Console        Wii                   DS                        GBA

Total       23,000,000        25,000,000          1,000,000

2009, if Wii follows DS and peaks in third full year

Console       Wii                 DS                           

 Total        33,500,000     18,500,000

By year:

2004 - ~24 million hardware units sold  (GBA declinining, DS introduced, GC only ~18% of total sales)

2005 - ~22.5 million hardware units sold  (Portable shift from GBA to DS, GC ~10% of total sales)

2006 ~ 30.5 million hardware units sold (GC ~ 3% of hardware sold, DS+ GBA = 26 million, Wii ~ 3 million)

2007 ~ 48.25 million hardware units sold (Wii ~ 33%, DS ~63%, others <5%)

2008 ~ 49 million hardware units sold (DS ~ 51%, Wii ~ 47%, GBA ~ 2%)

2009 ~ 52 million hardware units sold (Wii ~64%, DS - 36%)

In other words, if I'm reading the trend correctly, 2010 will be like 2003 for GBA and GC, the down year before new hardware is introduced as Wii and DS account for less and less sales. 

So, because one analyst of a Belgian bank says to keep the stock of Nintendo instead of buying it, the sales of the Wii are declining?

What that analyst said makes sense for the stock, even if his Wii sales peaking projections are not realized.

Fact is the current stock price of Nintendo already factors in huge DS and Wii sales for the next year, that's how stock work, usually the current price of a stock accounts for what the company does in the next 1-2 years.

Some other things to consider. Nintendo has probably been able to reduce cost through cheaper production but is still able to maintain prices.

In addition, a larger user base means means greater software sales, where most of the profit is generated. So even if hardware sales flatten, software sales can still increase. Older games, such as brain training, generate more profit as well, since development costs are no longer a factor.