Nintendo Gets Downgraded -- Have Wii Sales Peaked?

[TheSource]

I'm not convinced Wii will peak in 2008, I think 2009 is more likely based on how well its selling almost 18 months into its life.  Nintendo has said it wants to introduce Wii to markets like China soon, and Gamestop is on record in saying recently that shortages will continue for the next six months at least, which Pachter seems to think is because the '150,000 extra wiis per month that will accompany Wii Fit' sold in the USA will go to big box retailers.

I do think this is going to be Wii's peak holiday worldwide, but I think Wii has to be in stock everywhere in the west for a long period of time before it can be said it is peaking.

The way I look at it is like this:

2004:   

Console	Wii	DS	GC	GBA
Total	n/a	2,860,153	4,442,042	16,715,609

2005:

Console	Wii	DS	GC	GBA
Total	n/a	11,066,552	2,738,456	8,761,110

2006:

Console	Wii	DS	GC	GBA
Total	2,959,649	20,963,268	1,005,041	5,553,026

2007:

Console	Wii	DS	GC	GBA
Total	16,367,357	29,391,224	188,692	2,304,789

2008 Estimates based on 1st 11 weeks:

Console        Wii                   DS                        GBA

Total       23,000,000        25,000,000          1,000,000

2009, if Wii follows DS and peaks in third full year

Console       Wii                 DS                           

 Total        33,500,000     18,500,000

By year:

2004 - ~24 million hardware units sold  (GBA declinining, DS introduced, GC only ~18% of total sales)

2005 - ~22.5 million hardware units sold  (Portable shift from GBA to DS, GC ~10% of total sales)

2006 ~ 30.5 million hardware units sold (GC ~ 3% of hardware sold, DS+ GBA = 26 million, Wii ~ 3 million)

2007 ~ 48.25 million hardware units sold (Wii ~ 33%, DS ~63%, others <5%)

2008 ~ 49 million hardware units sold (DS ~ 51%, Wii ~ 47%, GBA ~ 2%)

2009 ~ 52 million hardware units sold (Wii ~64%, DS - 36%)

 

In other words, if I'm reading the trend correctly, 2010 will be like 2003 for GBA and GC, the down year before new hardware is introduced as Wii and DS account for less and less sales.