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Forums - Gaming - Analyst: NX doesn't need to compete against PS4 & Xbox One to be successful

zorg1000 said:
potato_hamster said:

I think if Nintendo does go with this route it's not how many people think. It will be the same console in mutliple form factors - Let me explain. Picture a Wii U gamepad with dual screens, and the console built into the gamepad. Picture a docking station that connects to the TV and handles things like multiple controller inputs from things like WIi U gamepads sold seperately. No performance improvement, maybe minor image upscaling of the top screen with some image smoothing effects, similar to how Blu-ray players upscale DVDs.

Along side that, picture Wii-U style console with the exact same specs as this new handheld, but has all the functionality of the dock built into a single unit, and uses the wii u gamepad as the controller, but multiple gamepads are supported as secondary controller.

Both the handheld and the core system would be functionally equivalent in terms of a development point of view, with very very minor additional testing needed. One version of the game. One standard for inputs. One standard for outputs.



 

I agree for the most part, I don't think we will see a Wii U level handheld along with a PS4 level console and expect them to share a library, to me that is unrealistic. When I say improved performance I'm only talking something similar to the N64 expansion pack that for the most part upressed games from 320x240 to 640x480 and sometimes increased frame rate and a few games had exclusive features that reguired it.

Also what do u feel are realistic price points for the devices u outlined above?

It depends. If you're talking PS4 levels of performance on a handheld that will not be cheap. It would be slightly cheaper in console form because size, power and heat is less of a concern, but then the market dictates that handhelds can't really be as expensive as home consoles. That presents a challenge

However, Nintendo might not care, and release the console cheaper than the handheld.  I wouldn't expect either of these form factors to be less than $200. If I were to hazard a guess (and this is not my forte), such a solution might be $229 for home, $249 for handheld, and $299 for handheld + base? Something like that might be competitive. If Nitendo wants to keep it traditional, they might eat the margin on the handheld, and make up for it on the console, and invert the price on both, so $229 for handheld, $249 for console, $299 for handheld + base, and sell the base for $100 separately?

Honestly I have no idea though. Blatant guess based on where I think they might need to price it, not based on where I think it should be to be successful.





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potato_hamster said:
zorg1000 said:

 

I agree for the most part, I don't think we will see a Wii U level handheld along with a PS4 level console and expect them to share a library, to me that is unrealistic. When I say improved performance I'm only talking something similar to the N64 expansion pack that for the most part upressed games from 320x240 to 640x480 and sometimes increased frame rate and a few games had exclusive features that reguired it.

Also what do u feel are realistic price points for the devices u outlined above?

It depends. If you're talking PS4 levels of performance on a handheld that will not be cheap. It would be slightly cheaper in console form because size, power and heat is less of a concern, but then the market dictates that handhelds can't really be as expensive as home consoles. That presents a challenge

However, Nintendo might not care, and release the console cheaper than the handheld.  I wouldn't expect either of these form factors to be less than $200. If I were to hazard a guess (and this is not my forte), such a solution might be $229 for home, $249 for handheld, and $299 for handheld + base? Something like that might be competitive. If Nitendo wants to keep it traditional, they might eat the margin on the handheld, and make up for it on the console, and invert the price on both, so $229 for handheld, $249 for console, $299 for handheld + base, and sell the base for $100 separately?

Honestly I have no idea though. Blatant guess based on where I think they might need to price it, not based on where I think it should be to be successful.



 


Sorry, I meant a Wii U level performance on a handheld, not PS4.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
potato_hamster said:

It depends. If you're talking PS4 levels of performance on a handheld that will not be cheap. It would be slightly cheaper in console form because size, power and heat is less of a concern, but then the market dictates that handhelds can't really be as expensive as home consoles. That presents a challenge

However, Nintendo might not care, and release the console cheaper than the handheld.  I wouldn't expect either of these form factors to be less than $200. If I were to hazard a guess (and this is not my forte), such a solution might be $229 for home, $249 for handheld, and $299 for handheld + base? Something like that might be competitive. If Nitendo wants to keep it traditional, they might eat the margin on the handheld, and make up for it on the console, and invert the price on both, so $229 for handheld, $249 for console, $299 for handheld + base, and sell the base for $100 separately?

Honestly I have no idea though. Blatant guess based on where I think they might need to price it, not based on where I think it should be to be successful.



 


Sorry, I meant a Wii U level performance on a handheld, not PS4.

But that would mean Wii U level or marginally better performance on the NX console as well. I don't think anyone would be itnerested in that.





potato_hamster said:
zorg1000 said:

 


Sorry, I meant a Wii U level performance on a handheld, not PS4.

But that would mean Wii U level or marginally better performance on the NX console as well. I don't think anyone would be itnerested in that.



Well I don't think a handheld with PS4 level performance could realistically release next year at a somewhat affordable price and despite mobile eating away at dedicated handhelds, that is still by far Nintendo's strongest area and I don't think they can get away with selling a $300+ handheld no matter how impressive it's specs are.

As for the console side of things, I honestly don't see a PS4 level console from Nintendo releasing 3-4 years later doing a whole lot for Nintendo, PS4+XB1 will probably be over 80 million by this time next year and the fanbase of most mainstream 3rd party titles will be firmly entrenched on these devices.

I honestly dont see Nintendo making a big leap forward graphically, I'm thinking NX could be a marginal leap over Wii U similar to the way Wii was a marginal leap over GC. It sharing a library with the handheld counterpart means that all of Nintendo's support will go to it and not be divided along with the Japanese 3rd parties that support Nintendo handhelds will now be on the console, that and the ever increasing indie support will mean there are never any software droughts on NX.

I don't think think the likes of Bethesda or Take-Two are ever going to give significant support to Nintendo no matter what kind of console they release but other big western publishers like EA/Activision/Ubisoft/Warner will most likely give it some support at least in the beginning, EA-sports/certain Star Wars games, Activision-COD/Skylanders/Guitar Hero, Ubisoft-Just Dance/Rayman, Warner-various Lego games.


Basically NX would be receiving the combined support of 3DS+the support Wii U got in its first 2 years, Nintendo's full support+solid Japanese support+kid/family friendly titles+strong indie support+the occasional mainstream western game.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
potato_hamster said:

But that would mean Wii U level or marginally better performance on the NX console as well. I don't think anyone would be itnerested in that.



Well I don't think a handheld with PS4 level performance could realistically release next year at a somewhat affordable price and despite mobile eating away at dedicated handhelds, that is still by far Nintendo's strongest area and I don't think they can get away with selling a $300+ handheld no matter how impressive it's specs are.

As for the console side of things, I honestly don't see a PS4 level console from Nintendo releasing 3-4 years later doing a whole lot for Nintendo, PS4+XB1 will probably be over 80 million by this time next year and the fanbase of most mainstream 3rd party titles will be firmly entrenched on these devices.

I honestly dont see Nintendo making a big leap forward graphically, I'm thinking NX could be a marginal leap over Wii U similar to the way Wii was a marginal leap over GC. It sharing a library with the handheld counterpart means that all of Nintendo's support will go to it and not be divided along with the Japanese 3rd parties that support Nintendo handhelds will now be on the console, that and the ever increasing indie support will mean there are never any software droughts on NX.

I don't think think the likes of Bethesda or Take-Two are ever going to give significant support to Nintendo no matter what kind of console they release but other big western publishers like EA/Activision/Ubisoft/Warner will most likely give it some support at least in the beginning, EA-sports/certain Star Wars games, Activision-COD/Skylanders/Guitar Hero, Ubisoft-Just Dance/Rayman, Warner-various Lego games.


Basically NX would be receiving the combined support of 3DS+the support Wii U got in its first 2 years, Nintendo's full support+solid Japanese support+kid/family friendly titles+strong indie support+the occasional mainstream western game.

That seems like a really, really bad idea. No one is going to buy the NX home if its only marginally better than the Wii U, which practically no one wanted. There has to be a marked improvement and "it can play handhelfd games" isn't exactly a system seller itself.





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potato_hamster said:

That seems like a really, really bad idea. No one is going to buy the NX home if its only marginally better than the Wii U, which practically no one wanted. There has to be a marked improvement and "it can play handhelfd games" isn't exactly a system seller itself.

Well power isn't the only reason Wii U doesn't sell well, it has a multitude of problems, personally I think the combination of high price for what the device offers, inconsistent software output, lackluster marketing, initial consumer confusion and poor design choices have caused Wii U to be an overall unappealing product outside of people like me who are huge fans of many Nintendo franchises.

Power is not the be all and end all of gaming especially when it comes to Nintendo, their handhelds have always dominated their direct competitors along with Wii being their most successful console ever, so power has never really been the deciding factor when it comes to Nintendo devices, it comes down to whether or not Nintendo creates an appealing device that has strong execution. I'm not implying that NX is going to sell like Wii but it can certainly sell better than Wii U if the price/marketing/software output is superior to Wii U.

I think Nintendo is going to attempt to blur the lines between mobile & console games and try to establish a sort of middle ground between the two markets, so it doesn't "just play handheld games", it simply plays games designed for the hardware. The handheld is most definitely going to be the more popular version, especially in Japan, with the console variant being for the people who prefer playing on a TV or for families who like to play together. If executed properly I don't think something like 70-80 million handhelds and 20-30 million consoles is out of the question, which puts them back in the range they were selling in the 5th/6th generation.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
potato_hamster said:

That seems like a really, really bad idea. No one is going to buy the NX home if its only marginally better than the Wii U, which practically no one wanted. There has to be a marked improvement and "it can play handhelfd games" isn't exactly a system seller itself.

Well power isn't the only reason Wii U doesn't sell well, it has a multitude of problems, personally I think the combination of high price for what the device offers, inconsistent software output, lackluster marketing, initial consumer confusion and poor design choices have caused Wii U to be an overall unappealing product outside of people like me who are huge fans of many Nintendo franchises.

Power is not the be all and end all of gaming especially when it comes to Nintendo, their handhelds have always dominated their direct competitors along with Wii being their most successful console ever, so power has never really been the deciding factor when it comes to Nintendo devices, it comes down to whether or not Nintendo creates an appealing device that has strong execution. I'm not implying that NX is going to sell like Wii but it can certainly sell better than Wii U if the price/marketing/software output is superior to Wii U.

I think Nintendo is going to attempt to blur the lines between mobile & console games and try to establish a sort of middle ground between the two markets, so it doesn't "just play handheld games", it simply plays games designed for the hardware. The handheld is most definitely going to be the more popular version, especially in Japan, with the console variant being for the people who prefer playing on a TV or for families who like to play together. If executed properly I don't think something like 70-80 million handhelds and 20-30 million consoles is out of the question, which puts them back in the range they were selling in the 5th/6th generation.

I think you're completely out to lunch if you think any console that is marginally better than the Wii U is going to sell 2-3 times what the wii U did no matter how much it costs, or what games it has. That makes zero sense.

Your sales target is not realistic given the fact that Nintendo would be eliminating a console sale from everyone who bought a 3DS and a Wii U whiile doing very little to appeal to the people already in the Nintendo Ecosystem. Most people buy less than 8 games for a console. Both platforms already have more than 8 fantastic games. Its not the lack of games that are leading to poor sales, it's the lack of broad appeal.  I legitimately think your sales numbers are about double of what is realistic. Yes. I expect the NX as I propose to sell less than 50 million, and you probably should too. It just doesn't have broad market appeal.





potato_hamster said:
zorg1000 said:
potato_hamster said:

That seems like a really, really bad idea. No one is going to buy the NX home if its only marginally better than the Wii U, which practically no one wanted. There has to be a marked improvement and "it can play handhelfd games" isn't exactly a system seller itself.

Well power isn't the only reason Wii U doesn't sell well, it has a multitude of problems, personally I think the combination of high price for what the device offers, inconsistent software output, lackluster marketing, initial consumer confusion and poor design choices have caused Wii U to be an overall unappealing product outside of people like me who are huge fans of many Nintendo franchises.

Power is not the be all and end all of gaming especially when it comes to Nintendo, their handhelds have always dominated their direct competitors along with Wii being their most successful console ever, so power has never really been the deciding factor when it comes to Nintendo devices, it comes down to whether or not Nintendo creates an appealing device that has strong execution. I'm not implying that NX is going to sell like Wii but it can certainly sell better than Wii U if the price/marketing/software output is superior to Wii U.

I think Nintendo is going to attempt to blur the lines between mobile & console games and try to establish a sort of middle ground between the two markets, so it doesn't "just play handheld games", it simply plays games designed for the hardware. The handheld is most definitely going to be the more popular version, especially in Japan, with the console variant being for the people who prefer playing on a TV or for families who like to play together. If executed properly I don't think something like 70-80 million handhelds and 20-30 million consoles is out of the question, which puts them back in the range they were selling in the 5th/6th generation.

I think you're completely out to lunch if you think any console that is marginally better than the Wii U is going to sell 2-3 times what the wii U did no matter how much it costs, or what games it has. That makes zero sense.

Your sales target is not realistic given the fact that Nintendo would be eliminating a console sale from everyone who bought a 3DS and a Wii U whiile doing very little to appeal to the people already in the Nintendo Ecosystem. Most people buy less than 8 games for a console. Both platforms already have more than 8 fantastic games. Its not the lack of games that are leading to poor sales, it's the lack of broad appeal.  I legitimately think your sales numbers are about double of what is realistic. Yes. I expect the NX as I propose to sell less than 50 million, and you probably should too. It just doesn't have broad market appeal.



 

Wii U isn't done selling, it will probably end at around 15m so the successor doing 20-30m would be more like 1.33-2x as much. For the sake of argument let's go with the lower end of the spectrum (20m), u dont think that if Wii U theoretically cost 1/2 of its current price along with having a steady stream of software releases and improved marketing, it couldn't sell 33% better?

Yes, I know the average attach ratio is only about 8 games per console and that Wii U exceeds 8 great games but a big part of any products success comes down to consumer perception and once a product is perceived to be an unworthy purchase by the mass market, it is hard to change that perception. Wii U launched as an overpriced console with a lack of compelling software that had one of the worst post-launch droughts ever with non existent advertising and many people thought it was nothing more than an expensive Wii accessory. Right out of the gate Wii U was seen as an unappealing device and releasing a big 1st party title every 3-4 months has not been able to change that.

It wouldn't necessarily be eliminating sales from either form factor, being able to play at home on a big HDTV then seamlessly take play that same game wherever u go is a potential selling point for many people. Also the increased software output on both sides increases the appeal of both, for example Wii U doesn't have Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Luigi's Mansion, Kid Icarus, Monster Hunter 4/X, Bravely Default/Second, Fire Emblem Awakening/Fates, Mario & Luigi, Paper Mario, Yokai Watch, among others, if it did than its value would increase same goes for 3DS to a lesser extent where it's missing games like Bayonetta, Captain Toad, Splatoon, Mario Maker, Xenoblade X, those games would potentially increase the appeal of 3DS.

And like I said before price is a potential issue, the premium sku of 3DS has been $200 since summer of 2012 while Wii U has been $300 since it released for a combined total of $500. Theoretically let's say NX Portable & NX Console each cost $150 or bundled together for $250, it would be much easier for someone to justify owning both form factors.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Like i said, next year will be the most challenging year for Nintendo since launching a new platform will always come with trouble, and since this is suppose to be the hybrid of handheld/console. It could be THE platform to revolutionize the video games industry, OR just the biggest gimmick and failure of 2016.



Soundwave said:

Also I think one misnomer that some Nintendo fans have latched onto is that somehow the audience that Sony and MS target is not "mainstream".

Here's a fact the PS3 and XBox 360 had a larger audience than the Wii collectively and even individually almost matched the Wii for userbase.

You can't just ignore this audience that IS the mainstream gaming audience. To ignore it is basically to admit you are aiming for a niche audience or attempting to compete head on with Apple/Google for $1 casual consumers (you'd be better off competing against Sony/MS in that case).

The idea that making a cheap-kids console is some safe haven for Nintendo is equally misguided ... there is tons of competetion in that space, in fact there are more casual/cheap-o games being made today than any other genre period and they're free or dirt cheap. 

Here's a fact, Wii was WAY more successful than Xbox 360 or PS3 on both the hardware and software because of the strategy it did use.





I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.