Analyst: NX doesn't need to compete against PS4 & Xbox One to be successful

[zorg1000]

potato_hamster said:

zorg1000 said:

potato_hamster said:

That seems like a really, really bad idea. No one is going to buy the NX home if its only marginally better than the Wii U, which practically no one wanted. There has to be a marked improvement and "it can play handhelfd games" isn't exactly a system seller itself.

Well power isn't the only reason Wii U doesn't sell well, it has a multitude of problems, personally I think the combination of high price for what the device offers, inconsistent software output, lackluster marketing, initial consumer confusion and poor design choices have caused Wii U to be an overall unappealing product outside of people like me who are huge fans of many Nintendo franchises.

Power is not the be all and end all of gaming especially when it comes to Nintendo, their handhelds have always dominated their direct competitors along with Wii being their most successful console ever, so power has never really been the deciding factor when it comes to Nintendo devices, it comes down to whether or not Nintendo creates an appealing device that has strong execution. I'm not implying that NX is going to sell like Wii but it can certainly sell better than Wii U if the price/marketing/software output is superior to Wii U.

I think Nintendo is going to attempt to blur the lines between mobile & console games and try to establish a sort of middle ground between the two markets, so it doesn't "just play handheld games", it simply plays games designed for the hardware. The handheld is most definitely going to be the more popular version, especially in Japan, with the console variant being for the people who prefer playing on a TV or for families who like to play together. If executed properly I don't think something like 70-80 million handhelds and 20-30 million consoles is out of the question, which puts them back in the range they were selling in the 5th/6th generation.

I think you're completely out to lunch if you think any console that is marginally better than the Wii U is going to sell 2-3 times what the wii U did no matter how much it costs, or what games it has. That makes zero sense.

Your sales target is not realistic given the fact that Nintendo would be eliminating a console sale from everyone who bought a 3DS and a Wii U whiile doing very little to appeal to the people already in the Nintendo Ecosystem. Most people buy less than 8 games for a console. Both platforms already have more than 8 fantastic games. Its not the lack of games that are leading to poor sales, it's the lack of broad appeal.  I legitimately think your sales numbers are about double of what is realistic. Yes. I expect the NX as I propose to sell less than 50 million, and you probably should too. It just doesn't have broad market appeal.

 

Wii U isn't done selling, it will probably end at around 15m so the successor doing 20-30m would be more like 1.33-2x as much. For the sake of argument let's go with the lower end of the spectrum (20m), u dont think that if Wii U theoretically cost 1/2 of its current price along with having a steady stream of software releases and improved marketing, it couldn't sell 33% better?

Yes, I know the average attach ratio is only about 8 games per console and that Wii U exceeds 8 great games but a big part of any products success comes down to consumer perception and once a product is perceived to be an unworthy purchase by the mass market, it is hard to change that perception. Wii U launched as an overpriced console with a lack of compelling software that had one of the worst post-launch droughts ever with non existent advertising and many people thought it was nothing more than an expensive Wii accessory. Right out of the gate Wii U was seen as an unappealing device and releasing a big 1st party title every 3-4 months has not been able to change that.

It wouldn't necessarily be eliminating sales from either form factor, being able to play at home on a big HDTV then seamlessly take play that same game wherever u go is a potential selling point for many people. Also the increased software output on both sides increases the appeal of both, for example Wii U doesn't have Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Luigi's Mansion, Kid Icarus, Monster Hunter 4/X, Bravely Default/Second, Fire Emblem Awakening/Fates, Mario & Luigi, Paper Mario, Yokai Watch, among others, if it did than its value would increase same goes for 3DS to a lesser extent where it's missing games like Bayonetta, Captain Toad, Splatoon, Mario Maker, Xenoblade X, those games would potentially increase the appeal of 3DS.

And like I said before price is a potential issue, the premium sku of 3DS has been $200 since summer of 2012 while Wii U has been $300 since it released for a combined total of $500. Theoretically let's say NX Portable & NX Console each cost $150 or bundled together for $250, it would be much easier for someone to justify owning both form factors.