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Forums - Gaming - Former Microsoft CTO says VR/AR at least 'a decade' away from being mainstream

method114 on 09 December 2015
JRPGfan said:
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:
Before using the phrase "It will" ask your self the question "Why will it?"

Because its better experiance than what a TV can give you.

You know how people love TVs? VR is the next TV.... just better.

Its going to be huge 15years from now, and probably common place owned by most households (in the richer parts of the world).

 

AR is the next step for a smart phone.

Why settle for a small tiny screen on your phone? when it can be as big as your intire field of view if you want it too.

Why bother takeing your phone out to red a text msg, when you can have its display always on, showing in your glasses via AR.

For gameing? no not within the next 20years or more (phone wise) but for stuff like reading text messages ect, its going to be huge for the phone market.

I don't think AR will be huge for phones until we don't have to wear something on our face. People don't want to wear things on their face period. It's been proven time and time again they just don't like it. For gaming it's ok because it's temporary and at home. When your trying to go out and have fun and you don't want something on your face all the time.



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Netyaroze on 09 December 2015
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:
Netyaroze said:

Head tracking is not a possiblity its already there.

Fooling the mind to be in another space is the end result thats already happening.

What I wrote is just an opinion and educated guess and extrapolation of current trends. The optical VR implants are pure speculation.

Since when do you have to provide evidence for a speculation ? nobody can predict the future.

Direct stimulation of the optical nerve is possible:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visual_prosthesis

If you manipulate the data feed of that device you can manipulate what the person gets to see its ofcourse basic and just lets you see in a very limited way right now.

http://www.gizmag.com/ioptik-ar-contact-lens-ces/30310/

This are contact lense display concepts.

Its possible to imagine some kind of light weight technology that can be later used to create virtual spaces.

VR as we get it soon, is a start, if it never starts anywhere it will never happen so its important we have those stupid early adopters to drive technology to the place it needs to be for broad adoption.

And I am convinced many people on this forum and gamers in general are going to spearhead this development.

Everybody is a Sceptic but 99% of the people that try it can see the value and understand the technology even if they will not buy in right away.

At the moment you have a clunky headset with headtracking and positional tracking and the result is mind blowing, its good enough to sustain itself.

What is your scepticism based on ? what evidence do you have its going to flop ? Vr Boy and 3D TV ? Even though they are different technologies and the experience they deliever can not be compared to Vive,Oculus ? Is your default position to think everything will flop until it doesnt ?

Can you see the future ?

I am as sure as I can be when I say will.

Doesnt mean it will happen it means I am convinced it will.

What I wrote is not the theory of VR it does not need to hold up to facts checking and tests.

 

With the exception of the first line which I never stated was a possibility.

The rest are "possibilities", there are no trends yet. There are no assurances, this is why I'm skeptical. Everything you've stated depends on something else just as speculative, because we've seen it happen with other things. There is no guarantee that the same will happen, it's just wishful thinking.

Imagination is fine, but you can't build anything on it. For as many things as we've doubted coming to a success, there are hundreds that have spectacularly failed and thousands that have silently died as well.

All this fanfare for VR, is just that fanfare, I don't care about the possibilities, when I see it selling then I can consider what can be built on that, but it has to sell first.

What I saw is already good enough to buy. It has already value. The stuff that already is here is more amazing than any traditional game for me.

There is no assurance but nobody is asking anyone to take a risk. Buy it if you think it has enough value when you see it if you dont leave it be.  For me replaying Half Life 2 in VR is already justifying 400 Euro.

I spent way more on way less entertainment already. For me its a no brainer.

Dreadhalls, Alien Isolation had my heart beating more than any other horror game before and VR Cinema is awesome.

Minecraft, DayZ and Eve Valkyrie is enough games I will be able to consume anyway for the next year or two. 

Imagination is the starting point of any technology and I have faith in the concept of virtual reality.



Dr.Henry_Killinger on 09 December 2015
Netyaroze said:

What I saw is already good enough to buy. It has already value. The stuff that already is here is more amazing than any traditional game for me.

There is no assurance but nobody is asking anyone to take a risk. Buy it if you think it has enough value when you see it if you dont leave it be.  For me replaying Half Life 2 in VR is already justifying 400 Euro.

I spent way more on way less entertainment already. For me its a no brainer.

Dreadhalls, Alien Isolation had my heart beating more than any other horror game before and VR Cinema is awesome.

Minecraft, DayZ and Eve Valkyrie is enough games I will be able to consume anyway for the next year or two. 

Imagination is the starting point of any technology and I have faith in the concept of virtual reality.

This is anecedotal. You can't assume that because it's good enough for you it is good enough or even apt to be applicable to the mainstream.

It's fine to have faith in a technology, I am a tech enthusiast myself. At the same time, I understand the limitations of technology. Milestones need to be hit before we can begin dreaming of the future.



In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank

method114 on 09 December 2015
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:
Netyaroze said:

What I saw is already good enough to buy. It has already value. The stuff that already is here is more amazing than any traditional game for me.

There is no assurance but nobody is asking anyone to take a risk. Buy it if you think it has enough value when you see it if you dont leave it be.  For me replaying Half Life 2 in VR is already justifying 400 Euro.

I spent way more on way less entertainment already. For me its a no brainer.

Dreadhalls, Alien Isolation had my heart beating more than any other horror game before and VR Cinema is awesome.

Minecraft, DayZ and Eve Valkyrie is enough games I will be able to consume anyway for the next year or two. 

Imagination is the starting point of any technology and I have faith in the concept of virtual reality.

This is anecedotal. You can't assume that because it's good enough for you it is good enough or even apt to be applicable to the mainstream.

It's fine to have faith in a technology, I am a tech enthusiast myself. At the same time, I understand the limitations of technology. Milestones need to be hit before we can begin dreaming of the future.


Your right this is anecdotal. The problem is I've literally heard this stuff from everyone who's tried VR in it's latest form. All the people are amazed at how good it is. I was skeptical at first but I've been following VR and listening to different people talk about it (people not involved financially with the product) and they have nothing but good things to say. I think VR is going to be huge and I think it's going to happen within next 5 years. I can't wait to try it myself and I'll be ready to spend what I need to in order to play.



Netyaroze on 09 December 2015
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:
Netyaroze said:

What I saw is already good enough to buy. It has already value. The stuff that already is here is more amazing than any traditional game for me.

There is no assurance but nobody is asking anyone to take a risk. Buy it if you think it has enough value when you see it if you dont leave it be.  For me replaying Half Life 2 in VR is already justifying 400 Euro.

I spent way more on way less entertainment already. For me its a no brainer.

Dreadhalls, Alien Isolation had my heart beating more than any other horror game before and VR Cinema is awesome.

Minecraft, DayZ and Eve Valkyrie is enough games I will be able to consume anyway for the next year or two. 

Imagination is the starting point of any technology and I have faith in the concept of virtual reality.

This is anecedotal. You can't assume that because it's good enough for you it is good enough or even apt to be applicable to the mainstream.

It's fine to have faith in a technology, I am a tech enthusiast myself. At the same time, I understand the limitations of technology. Milestones need to be hit before we can begin dreaming of the future.


Personal experience is always anecdotal. Everybody that tried it was blown away that I know.

Lets see how this turns out in the next 5 years.

There was already a milestone hit with the aquisition from Oculus by facebook.

Sony Valve Samsung HTC coming in.  Gear VR,DK2,DK1 all exceeded expectations by far.

VR was nothing a couple of years ago now people talk about it. The speed this develops is stagering.

My optimizm is founded on personal experience and the lightning speed the technology and market developed between DK1 and CV1 the progress is astounding.

I think for mainstream success it needs to be smaller, lighter and completly untethered. 4k per eye and 130+ FOV

Being sceptical about it is just natural.

However I hope everybody gets to try it. And I am not talking Google Cardboard and Gear VR but Vive Full Room tracking and Oculus CV1 level experiences.

 



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JRPGfan on 09 December 2015
method114 said:
JRPGfan said:
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:
Before using the phrase "It will" ask your self the question "Why will it?"

Because its better experiance than what a TV can give you.

You know how people love TVs? VR is the next TV.... just better.

Its going to be huge 15years from now, and probably common place owned by most households (in the richer parts of the world).

 

AR is the next step for a smart phone.

Why settle for a small tiny screen on your phone? when it can be as big as your intire field of view if you want it too.

Why bother takeing your phone out to red a text msg, when you can have its display always on, showing in your glasses via AR.

For gameing? no not within the next 20years or more (phone wise) but for stuff like reading text messages ect, its going to be huge for the phone market.

I don't think AR will be huge for phones until we don't have to wear something on our face. People don't want to wear things on their face period. It's been proven time and time again they just don't like it. For gaming it's ok because it's temporary and at home. When your trying to go out and have fun and you don't want something on your face all the time.


I have glasses, I love being able to "see" 20/20.

I can imagine some slightly heavier "kinda weak" AR glasses that hook up to your phone, being common place in the future.

There is no way to get AR without wearing anything btw.



Justagamer on 09 December 2015

I don't see either one taking off. You just can't get passed the fact you have to strap on a big dumb ass contraption to your head. D.O.A. Flop from the start.



Netyaroze on 09 December 2015
JRPGfan said:
method114 said:

I don't think AR will be huge for phones until we don't have to wear something on our face. People don't want to wear things on their face period. It's been proven time and time again they just don't like it. For gaming it's ok because it's temporary and at home. When your trying to go out and have fun and you don't want something on your face all the time.


I have glasses, I love being able to "see" 20/20.

I can imagine some slightly heavier "kinda weak" AR glasses that hook up to your phone, being common place in the future.

There is no way to get AR without wearing anything btw.

There is no way to get AR without wearing anything but what about that:

This could be for people that can tolerate contact lenses.

This technology will not be available soon but maybe when we are old. If you do all the computing on a cloud. With ultra low latency wifi endless possibilities.





KungKras on 09 December 2015

It was a decade away from being mainstream in the nineties and it will continue to be decades away from mainstream until the heat death of the universe.



I LOVE ICELAND!

JRPGfan on 09 December 2015
Netyaroze said:
JRPGfan said:


I have glasses, I love being able to "see" 20/20.

I can imagine some slightly heavier "kinda weak" AR glasses that hook up to your phone, being common place in the future.

There is no way to get AR without wearing anything btw.

There is no way to get AR without wearing anything but what about that:

This could be for people that can tolerate contact lenses.

This technology will not be available soon but maybe when we are old. If you do all the computing on a cloud. With ultra low latency wifi endless possibilities.


They can make "acceptable" glasses that arnt heavy, in 10years time that hook up to your phone.

Those contact lense you post seem like a far off dream, born of some scifi.

That probably isnt happening within the next 100 years.

But in 10years time you can probably get smart phone glasses with AR.

 

Until then... you can get something much better in VR (slightly heavier wear though).