Before using the phrase "It will" ask your self the question "Why will it?"

Bruh, VR is already a thing, just look up Samsung Gear VR, Oculus Rift, Google Cardboard VR and the obvious PlayStation.VR. Lot of companies supporting it so naturally, it become a thing.

Heck, even YouTube is now supporting VR! 

Because through VR people will be able to manipulate their audio and optical nerves perfectly.

This will allow people to communicate and deliever services that do not require physical contact in the same quality as if they would meet in reality.

Concerts, Football, Traveling, Doctor lawyer visits. Online Dating. People connecting over vast distances without using alot of energy and costs. In the same quality as if it would be real.

Online Dating would become a new thing its not even necessary to meet in real life but a VR meetup to determin if a meet up in real life would be worth it would become the new standard.

Capturing for example the birthday of your kid in VR where you can walk through the experience 10 years later as if you were present that day..

This will be a huge industry and save alot of energy for physical traveling.  

Light fíeld cameras that are able to capture depth.

VR as we see it now is the first step in creating our own alternative reality.

Presentation Architecture Design Entertainment are all fields that benefit already.

Basically the world we see are just photons on our retina. Once we are able to manipulate the photons that reach or retina as we please through technology we will be able to see whatever we want.

VR gaming is the crude first step to this future. If there is an legitimate use for a certain technology it will find its way. Creating a Virtual reality is the logical conclusion of our technological development in the past decades.

The thing is VR is already super entertaining and I am glad that we finally reached a level of technology that allows us to make this possible.

This technology is disruptive and I for one am happy to be part of the first wave for 300-500 Dollar. I remember getting into PCs in the late 80s was a costly thing a PC was like 4000 Dollar. And it was a shitty one way worse than a 2007 Iphone. Or a 2005 Nokia Smartphone.

HMDs in its current form are just a waypoint. In 50 years we might be able to directly stimulate the optical nerve with some kind of implant.

It just a matter of time until people in general will accept that VR is here to stay. I give it 2-3 years until its accepted as an interesting niche.

And 5-8 years until it becomes mainstream, 15-20 years until its as big as smartphones today.

There is Zero evidence for any of this. All you have stated is it will, without proving how will it. If you want to talk about how VR manipulates actual nerves, you need to show some evidence of this because as far as VR is currently developed, its just a screen that is really close to your face, with head phones. Perhaps some eye and head tracking to change perspective with you and give you the illusion of being in a "virtual space" but that's it.

VR is already mainstream. *eyes roll*

I'll clarify my Iphone comparison in a minute and talk about why I think VR is uptake will be quicker than some people think in a moment. But first I'd like to talk about your second point.

A first gen VR userbase the size of the Kinects userbase would be awesome. Even combined between OC and PSVR, 20-25 million units would be great. That is more than enough to sustain a steady stream of support. Especially considering the attatchment rate for VR games will likely be quite high.

So lets say in...5-6 years, you have 25-30 million HMDs out between Vive, OC, and PSVR. That's fine, but certainly not enough to call it mainstream. But then you have mobile VR sollutions like Gear VR. In 5 years there is a very good chance that Apple is involved and playing in that market. Phones will be way more powerful than they are now and will likely be running at least 1440X2560 if not full 4K displays.

Lets actually get back to Apple. If you don't like the Iphone comparions than just swap it out for any other piece of tech. Look at the difference between the Xbox One and the Xbox 360, they're 8 years apart and power gap is huge. Take a mid range gaming PC from 2005 and compare it to one from 2015.

There are really 3 major reasons why I think 10 years is a conservative estimate for mainstream VR.

1. The tech will improve faster than it needs to in order to be mainstream in 10 years.

2. The support will improve faster than it needs to in order to mainstream in 10 years.

3. Costs will come down faster than they need to in order to be mainstream in 10 years.

Head tracking is not a possiblity its already there.

Fooling the mind to be in another space is the end result thats already happening.

What I wrote is just an opinion and educated guess and extrapolation of current trends. The optical VR implants are pure speculation.

Since when do you have to provide evidence for a speculation ? nobody can predict the future.

Direct stimulation of the optical nerve is possible:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visual_prosthesis

If you manipulate the data feed of that device you can manipulate what the person gets to see its ofcourse basic and just lets you see in a very limited way right now.

http://www.gizmag.com/ioptik-ar-contact-lens-ces/30310/

This are contact lense display concepts.

Its possible to imagine some kind of light weight technology that can be later used to create virtual spaces.

VR as we get it soon, is a start, if it never starts anywhere it will never happen so its important we have those stupid early adopters to drive technology to the place it needs to be for broad adoption.

And I am convinced many people on this forum and gamers in general are going to spearhead this development.

Everybody is a Sceptic but 99% of the people that try it can see the value and understand the technology even if they will not buy in right away.

At the moment you have a clunky headset with headtracking and positional tracking and the result is mind blowing, its good enough to sustain itself.

What is your scepticism based on ? what evidence do you have its going to flop ? Vr Boy and 3D TV ? Even though they are different technologies and the experience they deliever can not be compared to Vive,Oculus ? Is your default position to think everything will flop until it doesnt ?

Can you see the future ?

I am as sure as I can be when I say will.

Doesnt mean it will happen it means I am convinced it will.

What I wrote is not the theory of VR it does not need to hold up to facts checking and tests.

With the exception of the first line which I never stated was a possibility.

The rest are "possibilities", there are no trends yet. There are no assurances, this is why I'm skeptical. Everything you've stated depends on something else just as speculative, because we've seen it happen with other things. There is no guarantee that the same will happen, it's just wishful thinking.

Imagination is fine, but you can't build anything on it. For as many things as we've doubted coming to a success, there are hundreds that have spectacularly failed and thousands that have silently died as well.

All this fanfare for VR, is just that fanfare, I don't care about the possibilities, when I see it selling then I can consider what can be built on that, but it has to sell first.

Former Microsoft CTO is former for a reason.

Because its better experiance than what a TV can give you.

You know how people love TVs? VR is the next TV.... just better.

Its going to be huge 15years from now, and probably common place owned by most households (in the richer parts of the world).

AR is the next step for a smart phone.

Why settle for a small tiny screen on your phone? when it can be as big as your intire field of view if you want it too.

Why bother takeing your phone out to red a text msg, when you can have its display always on, showing in your glasses via AR.

For gameing? no not within the next 20years or more (phone wise) but for stuff like reading text messages ect, its going to be huge for the phone market.