Former Microsoft CTO says VR/AR at least 'a decade' away from being mainstream

[Normchacho]

Dr.Henry_Killinger said:

Landguy said:

 

Exactly, people acting like VR/AR is supposed to be the second coming of the iphone have no idea how tech actually works. What actually made smartphones mainstream, etc. If they did they wouldn't be comparing VR/AR to them.

At best we are looking at first gen Kinect sales projections for PSVR. Just because you can imagine a whole mess of things to do with a VR helmet, doesn't mean any of it is realistic or will be popular. 

I'll clarify my Iphone comparison in a minute and talk about why I think VR is uptake will be quicker than some people think in a moment. But first I'd like to talk about your second point.

A first gen VR userbase the size of the Kinects userbase would be awesome. Even combined between OC and PSVR, 20-25 million units would be great. That is more than enough to sustain a steady stream of support. Especially considering the attatchment rate for VR games will likely be quite high.

So lets say in...5-6 years, you have 25-30 million HMDs out between Vive, OC, and PSVR. That's fine, but certainly not enough to call it mainstream. But then you have mobile VR sollutions like Gear VR. In 5 years there is a very good chance that Apple is involved and playing in that market. Phones will be way more powerful than they are now and will likely be running at least 1440X2560 if not full 4K displays.

Lets actually get back to Apple. If you don't like the Iphone comparions than just swap it out for any other piece of tech. Look at the difference between the Xbox One and the Xbox 360, they're 8 years apart and power gap is huge. Take a mid range gaming PC from 2005 and compare it to one from 2015.

There are really 3 major reasons why I think 10 years is a conservative estimate for mainstream VR.

1. The tech will improve faster than it needs to in order to be mainstream in 10 years.

2. The support will improve faster than it needs to in order to mainstream in 10 years.

3. Costs will come down faster than they need to in order to be mainstream in 10 years.