Former Microsoft CTO says VR/AR at least 'a decade' away from being mainstream

[Netyaroze]

Dr.Henry_Killinger said:

Netyaroze said:

Because through VR people will be able to manipulate their audio and optical nerves perfectly.

This will allow people to communicate and deliever services that do not require physical contact in the same quality as if they would meet in reality.

Concerts, Football, Traveling, Doctor lawyer visits. Online Dating. People connecting over vast distances without using alot of energy and costs. In the same quality as if it would be real.

Online Dating would become a new thing its not even necessary to meet in real life but a VR meetup to determin if a meet up in real life would be worth it would become the new standard.

Capturing for example the birthday of your kid in VR where you can walk through the experience 10 years later as if you were present that day..

This will be a huge industry and save alot of energy for physical traveling.  

Light fíeld cameras that are able to capture depth.

VR as we see it now is the first step in creating our own alternative reality.

Presentation Architecture Design Entertainment are all fields that benefit already.

Basically the world we see are just photons on our retina. Once we are able to manipulate the photons that reach or retina as we please through technology we will be able to see whatever we want.

VR gaming is the crude first step to this future. If there is an legitimate use for a certain technology it will find its way. Creating a Virtual reality is the logical conclusion of our technological development in the past decades.

The thing is VR is already super entertaining and I am glad that we finally reached a level of technology that allows us to make this possible.

This technology is disruptive and I for one am happy to be part of the first wave for 300-500 Dollar. I remember getting into PCs in the late 80s was a costly thing a PC was like 4000 Dollar. And it was a shitty one way worse than a 2007 Iphone. Or a 2005 Nokia Smartphone.

HMDs in its current form are just a waypoint. In 50 years we might be able to directly stimulate the optical nerve with some kind of implant.

It just a matter of time until people in general will accept that VR is here to stay. I give it 2-3 years until its accepted as an interesting niche.

And 5-8 years until it becomes mainstream, 15-20 years until its as big as smartphones today.

 

There is Zero evidence for any of this. All you have stated is it will, without proving how will it. If you want to talk about how VR manipulates actual nerves, you need to show some evidence of this because as far as VR is currently developed, its just a screen that is really close to your face, with head phones. Perhaps some eye and head tracking to change perspective with you and give you the illusion of being in a "virtual space" but that's it.

Head tracking is not a possiblity its already there.

Fooling the mind to be in another space is the end result thats already happening.

What I wrote is just an opinion and educated guess and extrapolation of current trends. The optical VR implants are pure speculation.

Since when do you have to provide evidence for a speculation ? nobody can predict the future.

Direct stimulation of the optical nerve is possible:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visual_prosthesis

If you manipulate the data feed of that device you can manipulate what the person gets to see its ofcourse basic and just lets you see in a very limited way right now.

http://www.gizmag.com/ioptik-ar-contact-lens-ces/30310/

This are contact lense display concepts.

Its possible to imagine some kind of light weight technology that can be later used to create virtual spaces.

VR as we get it soon, is a start, if it never starts anywhere it will never happen so its important we have those stupid early adopters to drive technology to the place it needs to be for broad adoption.

And I am convinced many people on this forum and gamers in general are going to spearhead this development.

Everybody is a Sceptic but 99% of the people that try it can see the value and understand the technology even if they will not buy in right away.

At the moment you have a clunky headset with headtracking and positional tracking and the result is mind blowing, its good enough to sustain itself.

What is your scepticism based on ? what evidence do you have its going to flop ? Vr Boy and 3D TV ? Even though they are different technologies and the experience they deliever can not be compared to Vive,Oculus ? Is your default position to think everything will flop until it doesnt ?

Can you see the future ?

I am as sure as I can be when I say will.

Doesnt mean it will happen it means I am convinced it will.

What I wrote is not the theory of VR it does not need to hold up to facts checking and tests.