All those games are recongnizale franchises and kid friendly, and they are barely passing the 1 million mark, splatton sold well because it was something ew and was very appeling to younger audinces, when you go into the store you recognize mario and all  those characters, but xenoblade is not really anestablished franchise, another point is that we arent completly sure of the quiality of the game. kotaku gave in its impression a mixed review, including digital the game is at 200 k in japan, his 150 k was fw not lifetime, it saddens me to think people think it will sell as well as splatoon, aside from some very bad you tube vide the game dosent have and advertisemnts ulike spaltoon, which ahd tv ads, events and appeared in amy gaming websites, when shinmegami tensei x fire emblem people were disgustedbecause it looked too japense and said they didnt wan tobuy it,the same thing will happen with xenoblade chrnicles x, the game dosnr look very goood graphically ither thing which will hurt causal sales

400k FW
1.2m LT

It is already likely that first week U.S preorders have already surpassed or are close to Japan's first week. Your prediction ignores facts. The first game was a new IP releasing on a dead platform with a high piracy rate, and with a limited supply to only one store. NA will be this game's strongest market.

try using more dots in your posts.Its very hard to write as it is.

Sure, while XCX is the second in the franchise, it is a new IP in many senses.But saying that this game had few covering and attention is wrong.Alot of youtubers are making videos about the game.It has appeared in almost every single Direct.Shulk is in smash, making the franchise even more known.And Nintendo did made Tv ads for XCX.In America and Europe.So yeah, it may not be getting Splatoon, Smash or Mario levels of marketing, but Nintendo is giving this game support.Plus those previews you mean, almost all of them praise the game, saying only good things about them.the only one who didnt was Kotaku, but as we all know Kotaku is a joke.And as I think you know, the first review gave 9.6 to XCX.Sure, its only one, and its not from a big site, but its signaling to something.And the game looks gorgeous.Again, almost every single previews praises the graphics.The only thing people bash about is the characters faces, which is understandable, but thats it.

In my opinion, 1 million is a guarantee.The first one sold around 1 million, and the first one generated a big fanbase, so im guessing most of the people who bought the first will buy the second.The question is if XCX will be able to bring new people in, which i believe it will.We will need wait to see.

That's vgchartz estimate, could be spot on, could be way off. I'm betting on the latter. 

Yeah, preorder tracking is often hugely inaccurate.

Maybe, but it was already corrected once(XCX had 30k plus numbers that was subtracted from it).So even if its off, I dont think its by alot

I'm gonna guess 300k FW between NA and EU, and 700k-800k lifetime globally. Would LOVE to be wrong though and have this game show some legs. The first game really didn't get a chance to have legs thanks to its limited release in NA, where it clearly could have sold more. I'd be thrilled if XCX hit a million or more in sales though.

300k fw, 800k ltd

Someone asked me why I said FW US sales would be low and that was my reply. I have no idea what it'll do anywhere else.