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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Playstation 4 has sold-through 30.2 million units worldwide

The lack of updates in VGchartz is disturbing. Also congrats on your successfully console sales.



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drkohler said:
ZhugeEX said:


There is a difference between sold through and sold in. 

Sony report both. They have sold in 29.3 million as of September 30th 2015 as they mentioned in their earnings release.

This 30.2 milion is a sold through number as of November 22nd and includes consoles sold at retail to end users. 

There is a bit of a weird thing going on here.

They reported 29.3M "shipped" in their earnings release - or did they report 29.3M sell-in? (Usually companies always reported shipped=manufactured numbers unitl now).

If the 29.3M number was indeed shipped, then there is NO WAY Sony could have sold through 30.2M units by November 22nd. If that were true, then ALL the consoles on ships trundling to their destinations had been moved to retailers. In addition, 900k units of the new quarter shipment (which weren't on ships until November) would also have had to arrive in shops before Nov 22nd and hd to be sold. As it usually takes around 8 weeks to ship "stuff", that would mean all consoles were/are now air transported which I find kind of very unlikely.

If I wanted to "believe" the 30.2M number, this would mean Sony manufactured WAY more than 29.3M units by end of last quarter. And hid the real number in the inventory column of the earnings report (that column does show a remarkable increase). Why they would do that - maybe to piss off MS with exactly such a depressing statement?

Or maybe that 30.2M sell-through is an estimate by Sony using a few known numbers like MediaCreate for Japan, NPD for USA and some Eurotracked countries and then linearly exrapolated all over the globe, assuming sales patterns were equal everywhere untracked.

Sony can only count a console as sold when a purchase order from a retailer has been made. So yeah, given Sony would have planned for the $50 price cut well before October hit, they would have ramped up manufacturing and distribution before the end of September but none of those units could be reported as sold at the end of the September quarter. And if you think Sony can't ship a couple of million PS4's over the space of almost 2 months you must have not been paying attention to December quarter shipment information over the last few generations. When the demand is there all these companies can ship large numbers of consoles over a period of several weeks. 

reporting a number like 30 million sell through in 2 years is the sort of news that can influence Sony's share price. If Sony lied about information like that they would be in huge trouble with the financial markets regulators for misleading the market. That's a dangerous game for Sony to play, especially since they are leading the market by a huge margin anyway there is really no need for Sony to put ouot false information about reaching 30 million sell through. Especially given if 30 million wasn't reached at the 2 year mark it would be reached for sure before the end of the year and that would be just as much of a good news story. Sony has very little motive to lie and announce 30 million before PS4 actually reaches that mark, and plenty of legal motiviation not to lie.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

gooch_destroyer said:
Intrinsic said:


 Now they just say it's front loaded. oh and my favourite. that this will be the last console generation. 


Goes to show ya...

For all that PS4 is doing very well, these sales are not getting anywhere close to making up for the massive die off in Nintendo and Xbox sales. There's a very good chance this generation will be 50% of last generation, especially if MS sees the writing on the walll and hits reset early (2017 is my guess). Dying might be overstating it, but console gaming has definitely passed its peak in its current form. The 7th gen is the peak generation for total console sales and we will never see its like again, IMO.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

binary solo said:
gooch_destroyer said:


Goes to show ya...

For all that PS4 is doing very well, these sales are not getting anywhere close to making up for the massive die off in Nintendo and Xbox sales. There's a very good chance this generation will be 50% of last generation, especially if MS sees the writing on the walll and hits reset early (2017 is my guess). Dying might be overstating it, but console gaming has definitely passed its peak in its current form. The 7th gen is the peak generation for total console sales and we will never see its like again, IMO.

Basically, no it's not dying. However, console gaming  is slowly decling.  Right?



SWORDF1SH said:
Intrinsic said:
gooch_destroyer said:
And they said console gaming was dying...


 Now they just say it's front loaded. oh and my favourite. that this will be the last console generation. 

It's shrunk this gen for sure, mainly because of the Wii U selling poorly and I believe the XB1 eventually will start to dip below the 360 rate of sales aligning launch dates.  I also still think it'll be more front loaded but the more I see PS4 selling like this, the more I doubt PS4 having front loaded sales. Xbox One will very likely be more front loaded than the 360 though. So it's a mixed bag for me.

Depends on what you choose to look at. I don't agree the console market as we really know it has shrunk. I rather feel that the Wii opened consoles up to a demographic that would never have got one. I mean the damn thing was on Oprah for crying out loud!!! Nintendo's true core base had still remained mostly constant from its GameCube days but no one noticed it cause of how successful the Wii was. But that's become evident this gen with Nintendo showing how small of a core base it really has now. 

As for the PS4 and XB1, I'll still stans by what I've always said. the console space is not big enough for twin consoles. The 360 was a success because of how much of a failure (by PlayStation standards) the PS3 was. The PS4 is just a back to the norm case for Sony and the fact that MS is putting up a fight in NA is proof of that. They would always do well in NA but as for globally, not a chance when up against an in form PlayStation. So in a manner of speaking, I expect to see total numbers simarly to what we had last gen. Around 160M just shared differently between the hd twins. With the Ps4 doing around 110-120M and the XB1 doing 40-50M. Albeit achieved in less time than I took the PS3/360 due to the lower initial cost of entry this gen. 

And that's the thing about the console market I think most don't factor in. Its not a constantly expanding market. Every gen there are some gamers that leave and some new ones come in. Keeping the overall total about the same. The reason the PS1 sold as well as it did and every PS after it is more attributed to Sony's distribution might being able to go into more territories that Nintendo and Sega completely ignored in their time than being about  more people just being into gaming. 

And some numbers to drive my point home. 

PS + N64 =  ~135M

PS2 + XB + GC + DC = ~170M (stopped counting PS2 sales from when the new gen started)

PS3 + 360 +Wii = 260M/180M (if you consider the the true Nintendo core is only around 20-30M and not the granny's that bought a Wii)

Ps4 + X1 + WiiU = ~ 180M by the start of the next gen 

If you look at the numbers we can see the expansion one the playstation came into the mix. That was just due to being available in more places. From 6th gen till now we will average about the same number of sold consoles. Unless there is something else that pull casuals in en masse  



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drkohler said:
ZhugeEX said:

WAT.

Sorry - In my calculations I completely forgot there is a month called October...

So the 30.2M number could be ok - still difficult to ship though.

What they produce and what they ship are two totally different numbers.    But yes, we do know that they have sold around 1 million so far this month and probably more. 



Intrinsic said:
SWORDF1SH said:

It's shrunk this gen for sure, mainly because of the Wii U selling poorly and I believe the XB1 eventually will start to dip below the 360 rate of sales aligning launch dates.  I also still think it'll be more front loaded but the more I see PS4 selling like this, the more I doubt PS4 having front loaded sales. Xbox One will very likely be more front loaded than the 360 though. So it's a mixed bag for me.

Depends on what you choose to look at. I don't agree the console market as we really know it has shrunk. I rather feel that the Wii opened consoles up to a demographic that would never have got one. I mean the damn thing was on Oprah for crying out loud!!! Nintendo's true core base had still remained mostly constant from its GameCube days but no one noticed it cause of how successful the Wii was. But that's become evident this gen with Nintendo showing how small of a core base it really has now. 

As for the PS4 and XB1, I'll still stans by what I've always said. the console space is not big enough for twin consoles. The 360 was a success because of how much of a failure (by PlayStation standards) the PS3 was. The PS4 is just a back to the norm case for Sony and the fact that MS is putting up a fight in NA is proof of that. They would always do well in NA but as for globally, not a chance when up against an in form PlayStation. So in a manner of speaking, I expect to see total numbers simarly to what we had last gen. Around 160M just shared differently between the hd twins. With the Ps4 doing around 110-120M and the XB1 doing 40-50M. Albeit achieved in less time than I took the PS3/360 due to the lower initial cost of entry this gen. 

And that's the thing about the console market I think most don't factor in. Its not a constantly expanding market. Every gen there are some gamers that leave and some new ones come in. Keeping the overall total about the same. The reason the PS1 sold as well as it did and every PS after it is more attributed to Sony's distribution might being able to go into more territories that Nintendo and Sega completely ignored in their time than being about  more people just being into gaming. 

I get what you are saying but it's still shrunk from last gen. Will it stabalise from this gen onwards? Maybe. But it's also possible the core console gamers could shrink over the years also. A lot of the younger generation game on tablet so we might not get as many people in to the amount that leave.

It's certainly not doom and gloom for consoles right now.



SWORDF1SH said:

I get what you are saying but it's still shrunk from last gen. Will it stabalise from this gen onwards? Maybe. But it's also possible the core console gamers could shrink over the years also. A lot of the younger generation game on tablet so we might not get as many people in to the amount that leave.

It's certainly not doom and gloom for consoles right now.


One thing to note:  the shrink you are discribing was local to the Wii and it started a year before the PS4 and Xbox One launched.  If you consider the  latter two consoles, you find that the market has actually expanded.    In other words think about it statistically and admit that the Wii and the Wii U were outliers from Nintendo.   When you are trying to examine how you are doing, it always best to remove outliers. 



So with the removal of the need for estimates, will the next update around here show Sony's official sell-through numbers on the front page?



- "If you have the heart of a true winner, you can always get more pissed off than some other asshole."

COKTOE said:
So with the removal of the need for estimates, will the next update around here show Sony's official sell-through numbers on the front page?

most likely.