SWORDF1SH said:
It's shrunk this gen for sure, mainly because of the Wii U selling poorly and I believe the XB1 eventually will start to dip below the 360 rate of sales aligning launch dates. I also still think it'll be more front loaded but the more I see PS4 selling like this, the more I doubt PS4 having front loaded sales. Xbox One will very likely be more front loaded than the 360 though. So it's a mixed bag for me. |
Depends on what you choose to look at. I don't agree the console market as we really know it has shrunk. I rather feel that the Wii opened consoles up to a demographic that would never have got one. I mean the damn thing was on Oprah for crying out loud!!! Nintendo's true core base had still remained mostly constant from its GameCube days but no one noticed it cause of how successful the Wii was. But that's become evident this gen with Nintendo showing how small of a core base it really has now.
As for the PS4 and XB1, I'll still stans by what I've always said. the console space is not big enough for twin consoles. The 360 was a success because of how much of a failure (by PlayStation standards) the PS3 was. The PS4 is just a back to the norm case for Sony and the fact that MS is putting up a fight in NA is proof of that. They would always do well in NA but as for globally, not a chance when up against an in form PlayStation. So in a manner of speaking, I expect to see total numbers simarly to what we had last gen. Around 160M just shared differently between the hd twins. With the Ps4 doing around 110-120M and the XB1 doing 40-50M. Albeit achieved in less time than I took the PS3/360 due to the lower initial cost of entry this gen.
And that's the thing about the console market I think most don't factor in. Its not a constantly expanding market. Every gen there are some gamers that leave and some new ones come in. Keeping the overall total about the same. The reason the PS1 sold as well as it did and every PS after it is more attributed to Sony's distribution might being able to go into more territories that Nintendo and Sega completely ignored in their time than being about more people just being into gaming.
And some numbers to drive my point home.
PS + N64 = ~135M
PS2 + XB + GC + DC = ~170M (stopped counting PS2 sales from when the new gen started)
PS3 + 360 +Wii = 260M/180M (if you consider the the true Nintendo core is only around 20-30M and not the granny's that bought a Wii)
Ps4 + X1 + WiiU = ~ 180M by the start of the next gen
If you look at the numbers we can see the expansion one the playstation came into the mix. That was just due to being available in more places. From 6th gen till now we will average about the same number of sold consoles. Unless there is something else that pull casuals in en masse
