By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Halo 5: Guardians sells more than $400 million (games and hardware)

Tagged games:

Insidb on 05 November 2015
Snoopy said:
Insidb said:

Why do you think Halo 5 will outsell every other Halo, except for Halo 3?


Halo 4 is over 10 million as well I thought.

 

Edit: I see that you used vgchartz data. They stopped tracking the game after a while. It is easily over 10 million by now. Hell, it is probably around 12-13 million right now.

Where did you get that from? 



Around the Network
Torillian on 05 November 2015
Snoopy said:
Insidb said:

Why do you think Halo 5 will outsell every other Halo, except for Halo 3?


Halo 4 is over 10 million as well I thought.

 

Edit: I see that you used vgchartz data. They stopped tracking the game after a while. It is easily over 10 million by now. Hell, it is probably around 12-13 million right now.

When did VGC stop tracking?  Because according to the game's page it has been tracked all through 2015.  Unless you think they quit sometime in 2015 and then Halo 4 saw a huge upswell in sales there's just no making sense of these claims of yours of 12-13 million.

 

Global Annual Summary (Units)

YearYearlyChangeTotal
2012 7,197,135 N/A 7,197,135
2013 1,693,962 -76.5% 8,891,097
2014 482,490 -71.5% 9,373,587
2015 141,509 -70.7% 9,515,096


...

starcraft on 05 November 2015
Insidb said:
starcraft said:
Guys you're confusing things with Destiny.

According to VGC it sold upwards of 5 million copies week one across all platforms, NOT including digital.

That brought them to $325 million in revenue (including digital).

Conservatively estimating that Destiny cleared 6 million first week including digital, and you can see that no matter the software/hardware split, Halo 5 sold gangbusters.

I haven't seen any source for the 5 million mark; I have only been able to find the 2.43 million mark for the US W1, which is probably the only contextually relavant information. Bear in mind that ~66% of Destiny X1 sales LTD have been in the US, and reports are pinning UK W1 Halo 5 sales at around 150-200K (the strongest X1 EU territory).

WW VGC pits Destiny's first week sales at 5 million+.



starcraft - Playing Games = FUN, Talking about Games = SERIOUS

bananaking21 on 05 November 2015
Insidb said:
bananaking21 said:

before i even start, nobody here (atleast the reasonable people) are denying that Halo 5 is a success in a general sense. because big exclusives success lands in both software sales and how much hardware it pushed. 400$ million is an obiously massive number, and a large success. But those who are interested in knowing how Halo5 actually sold, and how it compared to past Halo games, are looking at the post and what numbers and info it includes. 

 

As for you math, well that would work if we completly ignored all sorts of logic and reason. we simply cant deduct how much Halo 5 sold from this. for many reasons.

1- Exchange rates. you completely ignore this in your post. even though you are trying to determine sales by revenue, you completly disregard that prices around the world are different. some places it would be relativily cheaper to get a game, and some places it would be more expensive. this applies to REQ packs, the controllers, the Console and and all editions of the Halo 5 game its self.

2- Average Selling price. without knowing the average selling price your whole point is moot. there are 3 editions of the game. the standard 60$ edition, a Limited Edition for 100$ and a Limited Collectors Edition for a massive 250$. Halo has a massive hardcore following, how much of those bought an LE or a LCE? without knowing the average point, you cant calculate how much it sold

3- you cant just say " i wont count controllers because i dont want to". errmm what? they were included in the PR for a reason, and they were sold. their considerably more expensive than a regular XB1 controler, and there are TWO versions. 

4- REQ Packs. you conveniently ignored this as well, because you simply dont want too. there were 45 million REQ packs bought, how many of them were through microtransactions?. could be a massive amount, could be a low one. but all in all, its just pure speculation, and just proves my point that your reasoning is flawed.

5- They didnt say sold through. Having been reading reports like these for years now, its pretty clear that unless sales are specifically said to be sold to consumers, that its sold in to retailers. Heck, lets say software is sold to consumers, just for your sake. But not one mention of anything sold through means that hardware, all controllers shipped and the Halo 5 bundle were included, even if they were sold to consumers or not, which heavily inflates the 400$ in revenue part. is there any mention of sold to consumers? 

 

you can keep running the numbers and doing all sorts of calculations that you want. but you wont get to any reasonable or logical conclusion. the best thing to do is wait for NPD, we already got UK sales, once we get USA sales we will get a much better picture of how the game, and hardware actually did. 

I've been wondering quite a bit about point 5 myself; if you remember (Why would you!?), Destiny first announced 500M sold day 1 , but was later clarified as 325MM sold through WEEK 1. 


yeah, as i said when its sold through companies always say so. this is most likely shipped. 



starcraft on 05 November 2015
bananaking21 said:
starcraft said:

I cannot see anyone doing possible number break downs, so I will have a (very amateur) go!

At $60 a copy, on revenue of $400 million, this game would have sold 6,666,666 copies first week.

Now as Ethomaz kindly pointed out, if someone were to purchase a Halo 5 Xbox One Bundle (the only product significantly expensive and wide-spread enough to dramatically skew the numbers), that would count as the equivelant of a large number of game sales (Ethomaz said 10, the correct number is 8.3, but lets roll with 10 because some people might have gotten the game slightly cheaper in Europe, and it makes the math's easier).

Now. If we assume a whole QUARTER of the revenue came from the game/console special edition, it would mean that Microsoft sold:

- 5 MILLION copies of Halo 5 standalone
- 200 THOUSAND Halo 5 consoles bundled with the game (which wouldn't include any non-Halo Xbox's sold this week - typically around 100 thousand per week at this time).

Now, remembering that at those levels the discrepency in unit cost between 8.3 and 10 game copies per Halo 5 console bundle likely comfortable covers the additional revenue from more expensive Halo 5 limited editions, we get:

- 5.2 million copies of Halo 5 sold first week.
- Well over 200 thousands Xbox's sold this week.
- An attachment ratio of approximately 1/3.

Now, there are a whole range of potential variations in these numbers.

But the only way to argue that Microsoft sold significantly less games than this, would be to argue that the Xbox One itself had a ridiculously, stupidly, insanely excellent week. Put another way, you would need to argue that the Xbox One had an enormous week, driven by masses of sales of Halo 5 console bundles...while at the same time suggesting that somehow means Halo 5 flopped.

If that wasn't amusing enough, I am particularly enjoying people suggesting that this revenue is largely made up of additional controller sales, for a game they have spent weeks lambasting for not having split screen.

Game did amazingly people, cool your jets.

before i even start, nobody here (atleast the reasonable people) are denying that Halo 5 is a success in a general sense. because big exclusives success lands in both software sales and how much hardware it pushed. 400$ million is an obiously massive number, and a large success. But those who are interested in knowing how Halo5 actually sold, and how it compared to past Halo games, are looking at the post and what numbers and info it includes. 

As for you math, well that would work if we completly ignored all sorts of logic and reason. we simply cant deduct how much Halo 5 sold from this. for many reasons.

1- Exchange rates. you completely ignore this in your post. even though you are trying to determine sales by revenue, you completly disregard that prices around the world are different. some places it would be relativily cheaper to get a game, and some places it would be more expensive. this applies to REQ packs, the controllers, the Console and and all editions of the Halo 5 game its self.

2- Average Selling price. without knowing the average selling price your whole point is moot. there are 3 editions of the game. the standard 60$ edition, a Limited Edition for 100$ and a Limited Collectors Edition for a massive 250$. Halo has a massive hardcore following, how much of those bought an LE or a LCE? without knowing the average point, you cant calculate how much it sold

3- you cant just say " i wont count controllers because i dont want to". errmm what? they were included in the PR for a reason, and they were sold. their considerably more expensive than a regular XB1 controler, and there are TWO versions. 

4- REQ Packs. you conveniently ignored this as well, because you simply dont want too. there were 45 million REQ packs bought, how many of them were through microtransactions?. could be a massive amount, could be a low one. but all in all, its just pure speculation, and just proves my point that your reasoning is flawed.

5- They didnt say sold through. Having been reading reports like these for years now, its pretty clear that unless sales are specifically said to be sold to consumers, that its sold in to retailers. Heck, lets say software is sold to consumers, just for your sake. But not one mention of anything sold through means that hardware, all controllers shipped and the Halo 5 bundle were included, even if they were sold to consumers or not, which heavily inflates the 400$ in revenue part. is there any mention of sold to consumers? 

you can keep running the numbers and doing all sorts of calculations that you want. but you wont get to any reasonable or logical conclusion. the best thing to do is wait for NPD, we already got UK sales, once we get USA sales we will get a much better picture of how the game, and hardware actually did. 

This was all covered significantly in later posts by myself and a number of others.

Firstly, in a general sense, there is no need to be so aggressive.

I framed my post very much in the sense that assumption was a key element of it. Indeed, I called my calculations 'amateur.' You said I ignored a load of logic, before proceeding to do just that yourself.

So, one by one...

1. I did not ignore exchange rates at all. I alluded to the notion that the game could be acquired cheaper in Europe. But even your comment on exchange rates wouldn't tell the whole story here. Exchange rates are a means of establishing PPP. All of Microsoft's reporting is done in USD. The reasons games are much cheaper of more expensive in USD tend to be more due to local factors such as taxes, wages and economies of scale. The one thing we agree on? We're not going to be able to account for all this with the limited info we have.

2. Without knowing the average sale price, this whole thread is moot - except to say that Halo was a success above and beyond all previous Halo's by revenue. But of course, thats not what many posters in this thread are getting at. If you don't want us to do any speculating, fine. But that would leave us only with face value revenue, which is enormous.

3. I didn't say "i wont count controllers because i dont want to".  I said I won't include controllers because the game has no split screen. Others have pointed out that the controllers have been on sale for weeks, and as a limited edition, many were sold on their launch, which wasn't included in the $400 million headline.

4. The only evidence we currently have available dictates that all parties who purchase the game received a very higher number of free REQs, ranging from around 10 to around 30. The only confirmed MS revenue from REQs is $500,000. Or one eight hundredth of the $400 million.

5. Shipped, sold through. Its presented as though its sold to consumers, as it is in the same breath as attach rates, but who knows these days?

TL:DR - If you don't like speculation, fine. But don't have a go at someone else's speculation, then proceed to do a poorer version of it yourself



starcraft - Playing Games = FUN, Talking about Games = SERIOUS

Around the Network
Insidb on 05 November 2015
starcraft said:
Insidb said:

I haven't seen any source for the 5 million mark; I have only been able to find the 2.43 million mark for the US W1, which is probably the only contextually relavant information. Bear in mind that ~66% of Destiny X1 sales LTD have been in the US, and reports are pinning UK W1 Halo 5 sales at around 150-200K (the strongest X1 EU territory).

WW VGC pits Destiny's first week sales at 5 million+.

Jason was kind enough to point me in the right direction, and here are VGC's Destiny Week 1 totals:

PS4: 2.14 million

X1: 1.21 million

X360: 0.54 million

PS3: 0.37 million

Total: 4.26 million

He said 4. You say 5. Based on this, I'd skew to the lower end. Unfortunately, Activision Blizzard pulled a Microsoft (or vice versa?) and provided us no unit sales.



Insidb on 05 November 2015
bananaking21 said:
Insidb said:

I've been wondering quite a bit about point 5 myself; if you remember (Why would you!?), Destiny first announced 500M sold day 1 , but was later clarified as 325MM sold through WEEK 1. 


yeah, as i said when its sold through companies always say so. this is most likely shipped. 

Agreed; you'd think we'd all sniff this out a little earlier lol.



binary solo on 05 November 2015
Teeqoz said:
Random_Matt said:
$500,000 on REQ packs. Not much to be honest.
http://www.gamespot.com/articles/halo-5-microtransactions-generate-over-500000-in-o/1100-6432003/

Same article: 
"Revenue from Halo 5's microtransactions is likely even higher than $500,000. That's because only a "portion" of REQ bundle sales went to the Halo World Championship. However, the exact percentage split between funds that Microsoft keeps and money that goes to the Halo World Championship is unavailable."

So basically we are still clueless.

If it's anything like the Smite treasure chests, which contributed $0.50 per treasure chest to competition prize money pools that $500K still translates into a negligible total when compared to the $400 million total. It's unlikely to be more than $2.5 million total Req pack sales, and it will possibly be less. OTOH, if the contribution from req pack sales is capped at $500K then it tells us nothing of any value. Once the $500K has been reached we have no clue about req pack sales beyond that. Do we have any further infomration that might help to clarify this?



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

starcraft on 05 November 2015
Insidb said:
starcraft said:

WW VGC pits Destiny's first week sales at 5 million+.

Jason was kind enough to point me in the right direction, and here are VGC's Destiny Week 1 totals:

PS4: 2.14 million

X1: 1.21 million

X360: 0.54 million

PS3: 0.37 million

Total: 4.26 million

He said 4. You say 5. Based on this, I'd skew to the lower end. Unfortunately, Activision Blizzard pulled a Microsoft (or vice versa?) and provided us no unit sales.

Sorry Jason is right, I did the maths poorly on the fly.



starcraft - Playing Games = FUN, Talking about Games = SERIOUS

binary solo on 05 November 2015
starcraft said:
bananaking21 said:

 

5- They didnt say sold through. Having been reading reports like these for years now, its pretty clear that unless sales are specifically said to be sold to consumers, that its sold in to retailers. Heck, lets say software is sold to consumers, just for your sake. But not one mention of anything sold through means that hardware, all controllers shipped and the Halo 5 bundle were included, even if they were sold to consumers or not, which heavily inflates the 400$ in revenue part. is there any mention of sold to consumers? 

you can keep running the numbers and doing all sorts of calculations that you want. but you wont get to any reasonable or logical conclusion. the best thing to do is wait for NPD, we already got UK sales, once we get USA sales we will get a much better picture of how the game, and hardware actually did. 

 

5. Shipped, sold through. Its presented as though its sold to consumers, as it is in the same breath as attach rates, but who knows these days?

TL:DR - If you don't like speculation, fine. But don't have a go at someone else's speculation, then proceed to do a poorer version of it yourself

Indeed, reading, yet again, the statement the PR associates $400 million with attach rate, by mentioning them in successive sentences, but they do not clearly link them. It's possible $400 million is shipped, while attach rate is clearly sell through. And of course as is mentioned plenty of times in various discussions, from an investor and accounting point of view shipped = sold because that's where the revenue comes in for the company. It's why quarterly and annual reports alway list shipped numbers for hardware and software and not sell through. So if MS was putting out PR primarily for investor and stock market purposes then they would normally be using shipped revenue.

It might be different this time around, because Halo is special, but it would generally be the exception to the rule for investor / stockmarket oriented announcements.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix