Halo 5: Guardians sells more than $400 million (games and hardware)

[starcraft]

bananaking21 said:

starcraft said:

I cannot see anyone doing possible number break downs, so I will have a (very amateur) go!

At $60 a copy, on revenue of $400 million, this game would have sold 6,666,666 copies first week.

Now as Ethomaz kindly pointed out, if someone were to purchase a Halo 5 Xbox One Bundle (the only product significantly expensive and wide-spread enough to dramatically skew the numbers), that would count as the equivelant of a large number of game sales (Ethomaz said 10, the correct number is 8.3, but lets roll with 10 because some people might have gotten the game slightly cheaper in Europe, and it makes the math's easier).

Now. If we assume a whole QUARTER of the revenue came from the game/console special edition, it would mean that Microsoft sold:

- 5 MILLION copies of Halo 5 standalone
- 200 THOUSAND Halo 5 consoles bundled with the game (which wouldn't include any non-Halo Xbox's sold this week - typically around 100 thousand per week at this time).

Now, remembering that at those levels the discrepency in unit cost between 8.3 and 10 game copies per Halo 5 console bundle likely comfortable covers the additional revenue from more expensive Halo 5 limited editions, we get:

- 5.2 million copies of Halo 5 sold first week.
- Well over 200 thousands Xbox's sold this week.
- An attachment ratio of approximately 1/3.

Now, there are a whole range of potential variations in these numbers.

But the only way to argue that Microsoft sold significantly less games than this, would be to argue that the Xbox One itself had a ridiculously, stupidly, insanely excellent week. Put another way, you would need to argue that the Xbox One had an enormous week, driven by masses of sales of Halo 5 console bundles...while at the same time suggesting that somehow means Halo 5 flopped.

If that wasn't amusing enough, I am particularly enjoying people suggesting that this revenue is largely made up of additional controller sales, for a game they have spent weeks lambasting for not having split screen.

Game did amazingly people, cool your jets.

before i even start, nobody here (atleast the reasonable people) are denying that Halo 5 is a success in a general sense. because big exclusives success lands in both software sales and how much hardware it pushed. 400$ million is an obiously massive number, and a large success. But those who are interested in knowing how Halo5 actually sold, and how it compared to past Halo games, are looking at the post and what numbers and info it includes. 

As for you math, well that would work if we completly ignored all sorts of logic and reason. we simply cant deduct how much Halo 5 sold from this. for many reasons.

1- Exchange rates. you completely ignore this in your post. even though you are trying to determine sales by revenue, you completly disregard that prices around the world are different. some places it would be relativily cheaper to get a game, and some places it would be more expensive. this applies to REQ packs, the controllers, the Console and and all editions of the Halo 5 game its self.

2- Average Selling price. without knowing the average selling price your whole point is moot. there are 3 editions of the game. the standard 60$ edition, a Limited Edition for 100$ and a Limited Collectors Edition for a massive 250$. Halo has a massive hardcore following, how much of those bought an LE or a LCE? without knowing the average point, you cant calculate how much it sold

3- you cant just say " i wont count controllers because i dont want to". errmm what? they were included in the PR for a reason, and they were sold. their considerably more expensive than a regular XB1 controler, and there are TWO versions. 

4- REQ Packs. you conveniently ignored this as well, because you simply dont want too. there were 45 million REQ packs bought, how many of them were through microtransactions?. could be a massive amount, could be a low one. but all in all, its just pure speculation, and just proves my point that your reasoning is flawed.

5- They didnt say sold through. Having been reading reports like these for years now, its pretty clear that unless sales are specifically said to be sold to consumers, that its sold in to retailers. Heck, lets say software is sold to consumers, just for your sake. But not one mention of anything sold through means that hardware, all controllers shipped and the Halo 5 bundle were included, even if they were sold to consumers or not, which heavily inflates the 400$ in revenue part. is there any mention of sold to consumers? 

you can keep running the numbers and doing all sorts of calculations that you want. but you wont get to any reasonable or logical conclusion. the best thing to do is wait for NPD, we already got UK sales, once we get USA sales we will get a much better picture of how the game, and hardware actually did. 

This was all covered significantly in later posts by myself and a number of others.

Firstly, in a general sense, there is no need to be so aggressive.

I framed my post very much in the sense that assumption was a key element of it. Indeed, I called my calculations 'amateur.' You said I ignored a load of logic, before proceeding to do just that yourself.

So, one by one...

1. I did not ignore exchange rates at all. I alluded to the notion that the game could be acquired cheaper in Europe. But even your comment on exchange rates wouldn't tell the whole story here. Exchange rates are a means of establishing PPP. All of Microsoft's reporting is done in USD. The reasons games are much cheaper of more expensive in USD tend to be more due to local factors such as taxes, wages and economies of scale. The one thing we agree on? We're not going to be able to account for all this with the limited info we have.

2. Without knowing the average sale price, this whole thread is moot - except to say that Halo was a success above and beyond all previous Halo's by revenue. But of course, thats not what many posters in this thread are getting at. If you don't want us to do any speculating, fine. But that would leave us only with face value revenue, which is enormous.

3. I didn't say "i wont count controllers because i dont want to".  I said I won't include controllers because the game has no split screen. Others have pointed out that the controllers have been on sale for weeks, and as a limited edition, many were sold on their launch, which wasn't included in the $400 million headline.

4. The only evidence we currently have available dictates that all parties who purchase the game received a very higher number of free REQs, ranging from around 10 to around 30. The only confirmed MS revenue from REQs is $500,000. Or one eight hundredth of the $400 million.

5. Shipped, sold through. Its presented as though its sold to consumers, as it is in the same breath as attach rates, but who knows these days?

TL:DR - If you don't like speculation, fine. But don't have a go at someone else's speculation, then proceed to do a poorer version of it yourself