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Forums - Microsoft - Microsoft Q1FY2016. Revenue $20.4bn, Op Inc $5.8bn, Net Income $4.6bn. Expectations beaten, stock up over 7% in after hours. (15 year high likely tomorrow)

Teeqoz on 23 October 2015
Ryng_Tolu said:
Teeqoz said:
So last year in the same quarter, xbox family shipped 2.4 million, with the 360 accounting for about 500k. This year, total xbox shipments should be down a bit, but XBO shipments should make up a larger part. I'd estimize 2.1-2.2 million combined, XBO @ 1.9 million.

XBOX shipments last quarter: 1.4 million. ( Estimate: 1.1m XB1 / 300k 360 )

XBOX shipments this quarter: ?

 

NPD XB1 sales last quarter: 623,000 [ 187k / 139k / 297k]

NPD XB1 sales this quarter: 672,000 [ 189k / 202k / 281k] ( +8% compared to last quarter )

 

You think XB1 has ship 1.9 million when it sold LESS THAN 700K in the US? How is even possible? You think MS has ship over 75% XB1 compared to last quarter when in the US they sold just a bit 8% more?

 

Lat year XBOX total shipments was 2.4 million, most estimate has 1.7 million XB1 and 700k 360.

You think XB1 is up YOY this quarter in shipments? Did you forget last year XB1 is coming in many new countries?

 

XB1 is most likely under 1.5 million shipped this quarter. Probabily 1.3/1.4 million XB1 and 300/400k 360 for a total of 1.6 / 1.8 million XBOX shipped, way less than last year 2.4 million. That's probabily one of the reason for why MS didn't released any XBOX shipments this time.


I didn't really look through that much, I just used the decrease in revenue as a basis. I do think your estimates are too low. Remember, revenue from hardware only decreased 17% YoY, and the XBO's price has decreased 12.5% YoY. Only 1.3-1.4 million XBOs and 300-400k 360s would've given a bigger decrease in hardware revenue than 17%. My estimates are probably too high now that you've presented me with some more figures, but your estimates are also probably too low.



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joannababy on 23 October 2015
ethomaz said:
jason1637 said:
http://www.icxm.net/x/xbox-39-million-active-gamers.html x1 sold more than last year. That means it above 14 million. But I THINK its around 15.8 million -16 million.

Not this is assumption from this weird site.

They think the Xbone sold more than last year because the number of Xbox Live users increased lol
While that can be true it is perfectly possible to increase the number os Xbox Live users selling less consoles... one thing is not related to other.


jup. weird assumption. (most people still think about xbox live user as xbox console user - windows 10 and windows phone user with an microsoft account could also be xbox live user)

 

if we talk about xbox one hardware number, they could be slightly up,or slightly down
main factor for lower revenue is less xb360 units sold and the differnt average selling price of the xbox one this quarter(last year all consoles were 399 and even some 499 kinect models - this year the mix is 349 and 399)

xbox one was up YoY for neraly the entire year. we know that from npd numbers and other should have also gfk numbers. and that indicator would be a a good one for increased xbox one shipments over the last year quarter.
on the other side, last year quarter had the tier 2 launch initial shipment, that could result in lower xbox one shipment numbers

 

as i said. both is totally possible and would be in line with the 17% revenue decrease.
xbox one shipments are either slightly up, or slightly down YoY...
and to point that out very clearly. that's the only both possible option. there is no way xbox one shipments are either heavily up or down. 



Ryng on 23 October 2015
Teeqoz said:


I didn't really look through that much

That's what you done with Splatoon.

And that's why you don't know i already massive won the bet. :)

And that's also why XB1 has ship less than 1.5 million, but i don't give about this lol.



CosmicSex on 23 October 2015
kowenicki said:
CosmicSex said:

You do know the difference between revenue and net income right? :)


Yes... I should do, I have had to explain it on here enough times.... but what does that have to do with what I said?  You clearly didnt understand my post.

You do know there is an after hours market for stock right?  You do know these results created a surge in that price for MSFT right?  You do know wnat Market Cap is right? You do know that a stock increase has an obvious knock on increase in market cap right? 

Eggs, grandmothers and education.  Dont do it.

Awww!  I forgot how incredibly condesending you could be!  Of couse I know what market capital is.  It sounded like you were confusing revenue with Market Capital... and revenue with operating income!  I know you are just excited to report the financial results... they did great.  Welcome back!



Teeqoz on 23 October 2015
Ryng_Tolu said:
Teeqoz said:


I didn't really look through that much

That's what you done with Splatoon.

And that's why you don't know i already massive won the bet. :)

And that's also why XB1 has ship less than 1.5 million, but i don't give about this lol.


Lol, we'll see on the 28th when Nintendo releases their financial report



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WC4Life on 23 October 2015

This year there is no Tier 2-launch-one time sell-in so XB1 numbers most likely aren't pretty. MS was happy to shout in every PR-talk how XB1 is tracking ahead of X360 but that utopia is coming to an end. Now all they can give is the Live numbers and the future of Live is not looking bright on the shoulders of XB1. How long are X360 Live Gold Members going to keep their subscriptions, not for long and XB1 cannot make up the difference with the way it is selling. The growth of Live is on PC and other smart devices, not on Xbox hardware.



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Kebabs have a unique attribute compared to other consumables. To unlock this effect you need to wolf down a big ass kebab really fast, like under 10 minutes or so and wait for the effect to kick in. If done correctly your movements should feel unbelievably heavy to the point where you literally cannot move at all.

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bananaking21 on 23 October 2015
Zekkyou said:
bananaking21 said:
So they wont even bother telling us xb1 shipments anymore? This thing must be a huge flop in MS's eyes if they cant even bother to say how much its selling.

Them not wanting to release specifics doesn't necessarily mean they consider it a flop. Even if they're doing well with hardware shipments, as long as their competition is doing better by a large enough amount, they'll always been seen as the 'losing' side. They might just be trying to curve how easily people can make that comparison, and come to the loser conclusion. It sucks, but if that's the case then it's understandable.

That doesnt go along with what their PR is saying though. they said they dont goal the success of the Xbox One by how much Sony sells, which doesnt seem to be the case, or they wouldnt be hiding their numbers. They had their asses kicked by the Wii last gen quite handedly. they did however share their shipment numbers, because they thought it was a success. 



sasquatchmontana on 23 October 2015
Ryng_Tolu said:

You think XB1 has ship 1.9 million when it sold LESS THAN 700K in the US? How is even possible? You think MS has ship over 75% XB1 compared to last quarter when in the US they sold just a bit 8% more?

The 360 for comparison:

NPD Jul-Sept 2007 = 804,670

Shipped: 1.8M- I guess 360 has always sold better in Europe confirmed AMIRITE?

Historically, it's their second biggest quarter of the year, with no exceptions. Whatever last quarter was (1.2-1.3M XB1?)- add 50% minimum. Probably due to retailers getting more stock for the holidays.

Remember the One outsold the 360 almost 6:1 last holiday, whatever the split this year, 360 isn't higher then 15% of the overall total.

Ryng_Tolu said:

You think XB1 is up YOY this quarter in shipments? Did you forget last year XB1 is coming in many new countries?

Sure, just a little, it's cheaper and since XBO only sells in the UK and US - as I hear so often about it's 90M selling predecessor - and both those regions are indeed up, XBO must be up.

Ryng_Tolu said:

That's probabily one of the reason for why MS didn't released any XBOX shipments this time.

Alternatively, it's their new fiscal year and is when the new report format is used.



Protendo on 23 October 2015
WC4Life said:
How long are X360 Live Gold Members going to keep their subscriptions, not for long and XB1 cannot make up the difference with the way it is selling. The growth of Live is on PC and other smart devices, not on Xbox hardware.

Why does that matter? They already included Silver subscriptions to pad numbers.



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sasquatchmontana on 23 October 2015
WC4Life said:
How long are X360 Live Gold Members going to keep their subscriptions,

Decades. Xbox is the only subscription based service that offers backwards compatibility as standard.

WC4Life said:
and XB1 cannot make up the difference with the way it is selling.

360 levels + 30%? Of course it will, after all Sony actively stood up and yelled "Charging for online play is the best"...it's practically a cartel.