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Forums - Sales Discussion - September 2015 NPD Thread! Hardware estimates and software numbers up!

This is how I get it.
Wii U August 42.5k, 110% increase 89k

From cream sugar percentages
Wii U makes up 12% 89k / 12 = 7.4166k per 1 %
PS4 7.4166 * 48% = 356k
X1 7.4166 * 40% = 296k

Wii U 89k - PS4 356k - X1 296k

This would put the X1 above last years 283k.



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SWORDF1SH said:
This is how I get it.
Wii U August 42.5k, 110% increase 89k

From cream sugar percentages
Wii U makes up 12% 89k / 12 = 7.4166k per 1 %
PS4 7.4166 * 48% = 356k
X1 7.4166 * 40% = 296k

Wii U 89k - PS4 356k - X1 296k

This would put the X1 above last years 283k.

Aren't the established figures in the OP though? You know me and maths are not good friends.



 

The PS5 Exists. 


Mummelmann said:
DolPhanTendo said:


not my fault you think every day of every week of every month of every year has to be perfect


It doesn't matter which day, week, month or year you look at; the numbers are still low. Flat in the US yoy for one month is decent enough but overall it'll probably be down yoy globally despite some growth in Japan.

And what do you mean by "pulling a PS3" anyway? The PS3 sold almost 8 million in its first full CY, with a staggered launch from Japan and was never anywhere near this low in the first years, it also grew consistently every year for 5-6 years and peaked at around 14 million in its best year. And it has had a 9 year lifespan now. Which of those do you believe the Wii U will be capable of?

I'm not trying to be mean or anything, I'm just wondering whether there are still actual, real human beings who believe in some divine comeback at this point. All signs point to less than 20 million lifetime right now, there is literally zero indication of anything else and lots of indications that even Nintendo themselves are preparing to move on and try again with new products.
The problem here isn't that others are being negative, it's rather that you are being way too optimistic with no basis in actual numbers and the reality of the market unfolding before us.


Don't say zero... that is an entity that would believe in a comeback that would pass X1+PS4 numbers.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

GribbleGrunger said:
SWORDF1SH said:
This is how I get it.
Wii U August 42.5k, 110% increase 89k

From cream sugar percentages
Wii U makes up 12% 89k / 12 = 7.4166k per 1 %
PS4 7.4166 * 48% = 356k
X1 7.4166 * 40% = 296k

Wii U 89k - PS4 356k - X1 296k

This would put the X1 above last years 283k.

Aren't the established figures in the OP though? You know me and maths are not good friends.

Yeah, the Nintendo PR statement was "nearly" 110%. But altering that down a percent or 2 doesn't really change the figures. My guess is that some might believe that last months 42.5k estimate isn't accurate.

For the OP estimates to be right, Wii U August figures would of been around 40.5k.



Mummelmann said:
DolPhanTendo said:


not my fault you think every day of every week of every month of every year has to be perfect


It doesn't matter which day, week, month or year you look at; the numbers are still low. Flat in the US yoy for one month is decent enough but overall it'll probably be down yoy globally despite some growth in Japan.

And what do you mean by "pulling a PS3" anyway? The PS3 sold almost 8 million in its first full CY, with a staggered launch from Japan and was never anywhere near this low in the first years, it also grew consistently every year for 5-6 years and peaked at around 14 million in its best year. And it has had a 9 year lifespan now. Which of those do you believe the Wii U will be capable of?

I'm not trying to be mean or anything, I'm just wondering whether there are still actual, real human beings who believe in some divine comeback at this point. All signs point to less than 20 million lifetime right now, there is literally zero indication of anything else and lots of indications that even Nintendo themselves are preparing to move on and try again with new products.
The problem here isn't that others are being negative, it's rather that you are being way too optimistic with no basis in actual numbers and the reality of the market unfolding before us.

To be fair, early in PS3's life there was speculation of a 10 million LTD for PS3 and articles talking about death spirals for PS3. Though I think by the time we get to the quivalent time on PS3's lifecycles as Wii U is today all of that extreme negativity about PS3's prospects had fallen by the wayside, and the only lingering mantra was PS3 has no games.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

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SWORDF1SH said:
This is how I get it.
Wii U August 42.5k, 110% increase 89k

From cream sugar percentages
Wii U makes up 12% 89k / 12 = 7.4166k per 1 %
PS4 7.4166 * 48% = 356k
X1 7.4166 * 40% = 296k

Wii U 89k - PS4 356k - X1 296k

This would put the X1 above last years 283k.

It's been mentioned earlier in the thread. Articles with information from people who have the exact figures said PS4 and Xb one are both down compared to Sept 2014. So any estimate that puts Xb one up compared to Sept 2014 would be due to rounding errors and lack of precise information. Unless anyone has a quote from an independant analysts which notes Xb one being up compared to Sept 2014 then the venture beat article saying it's down is the final word on the matter.

"Even the Xbox One and PS4 didn’t sell as well as last year."

Edit: Actually re-reading that sentence it could mean Xb one and PS4 combined, not Xb one and PS4 individually. So I guess there is still a possibility that Xb one is slightly up. I'm still leaning towards Xb one being slightly down because I've yet to see any independant article saying "even though Xb one is up on Sept last year, the PS4 being down means 8th gen as a whole is down compared to Sept 2014" or something like that. I would think analysts would normally note those stats behind the stats.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

binary solo said:
SWORDF1SH said:
This is how I get it.
Wii U August 42.5k, 110% increase 89k

From cream sugar percentages
Wii U makes up 12% 89k / 12 = 7.4166k per 1 %
PS4 7.4166 * 48% = 356k
X1 7.4166 * 40% = 296k

Wii U 89k - PS4 356k - X1 296k

This would put the X1 above last years 283k.

It's been mentioned earlier in the thread. Articles with information from people who have the exact figures said PS4 and Xb one are both down compared to Sept 2014. So any estimate that puts Xb one up compared to Sept 2014 would be due to rounding errors and lack of precise information. Unless anyone has a quote from an independant analysts which notes Xb one being up compared to Sept 2014 then the venture beat article saying it's down is the final word on the matter.

That explains the OP figures. Whose to say that last year estimates are correct if last months Wii U numbers are out also.



zorg1000 said:
DolPhanTendo said:

Sorry for looking at stuff in realistic/postive view on things instead dwelling in the past and being so negative. Reason why i stay away now from all these forums and dont post anymore  on vg. Can't say something positive without a post with some kind of backhanded comment or bitchy ass comment. Then i defend myself then i get banned. I come on here now just to see numbers.

If you think it's just me. I understand why IOI has lagged on the numbers all people do here is complain when the numbers come in how overtracked or undertracked he is. Common sense tells anyone getting exact numbers is always going to be hard and people should appiciate what he does and stop bitching that he isnt exact.

I came hear on this thread to expect lower numbers and saw a positive boost sorry i got happy about Mario Maker doing well a jumping sales. Could not even go one reply without someone pissing on my grave. 

 

Dude don't be so sensitive, he asked u a legitimate question, what about these results make u believe "pulling a PS3" is going to happen? Being down YoY in the 3rd full year on the market is pretty much the exact opposite of pulling a PS3.


He didn't just asked a question, so I'm not being so sensitive. Funny how people say things when they know they do not have to say it face to face. A lot users on this site are very negative and are baiters,will say things to try get arouse out of people, sad actually.



SWORDF1SH said:
GribbleGrunger said:
SWORDF1SH said:

Easy now.

Your argument doesn't makes sense, you're acting like the victim and then you go on rambling about appreciating Brett?

Serious question, are you drunk?

You do make one good point, Mario Maker is doing well.

Serious question, is that really a serious question?

lol is it that obvious. Wasn't sure, never seen the dude before. Seen a few users on here you would swear are drunk but that would mean that their livers would of packed in by now.


Wasn't trying to answer a question was explaining why this site is taking a turn for the worse and why I stay away from forums. You can't just say something positive about anything here without someone ridiculing it. People are allowed to pick a part a persons opinion so why post 



DolPhanTendo said:
zorg1000 said:

Dude don't be so sensitive, he asked u a legitimate question, what about these results make u believe "pulling a PS3" is going to happen? Being down YoY in the 3rd full year on the market is pretty much the exact opposite of pulling a PS3.


He didn't just asked a question, so I'm not being so sensitive. Funny how people say things when they know they do not have to say it face to face. A lot users on this site are very negative and are baiters,will say things to try get arouse out of people, sad actually.


Yes u are being over sensitive, u said it could pull a PS3 (comeback) based on being up 110% from last month, someone posted that it's actually down YoY meaning the exact opposite of pulling off a comeback then u responded with calling him negative for stating a fact and correcting u. Then another poster asked what makes u think a comeback is possible and u gave another response labeling the person negative.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.