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Forums - Sales Discussion - September 2015 NPD Thread! Hardware estimates and software numbers up!

DolPhanTendo on 21 October 2015
Hiku said:
DolPhanTendo said:

I didn't know I couldn't compare loosely something. Just because I said a comeback doesn't mean I meant the exact same comeback if. If I did mean that I would say that. Come back is a come back regardless how big or if they don't win. If a baseball team is down 5 in ninth and only score 4 and lose you wouldn't give credit to the team on a comeback and almost pull off a win? Or if a baseball team comes back down 7 and wins then later another team comes back down 6 and wins you wouldn't say that was a comeback because it was less runs than the last comback I watched? 

That what it sounds like to me, This guy is pleased that his favorite console is doing better so let's try and discredit his statement for whatever reason

Well, you didn't just say comeback. You specifically compared it to the PS3's comeback. Which was a rather big turnaround as it went on to sell 85M+.
So if you just meant a much smaller type of comeback, it probably would have been less confusing if you didn't reference the PS3 there.

Sony sacrificed a lot of money to bring down the price of the console to make it attractive again. Nintendo are doing nothing of the sort. There doesn't seem to be any comeback of significance in sight for the WiiU right now, as Nintendo seem content to just make a profit on the console rather than to try to increase it's installbase. And they're already talking about their next console. PS3 had a long lifespan, and a bright future ahead of itself. But WiiU doesn't seem to have a bright future, with no new significant games announced for 2016 at E3. Don't missunderstand though, there will be big games released for the WiiU in 2016, like Zelda and Star Fox. But these are titles we already knew of. It seems that they've moved development of all new big games to the NX now.
There's just no realistic way to make a comeback with a console that won't compete in terms of price, and seemingly has no continued support from here on out.


Yep and the Mets were not supposed to be even close to going to the World Series when spring training started or Oakland A's were picked to be the worst team in 2012 and all of sudden were 5 1/2 back with a week go to the Texas Rangers and end up winning the division that year.

Life is unpredictable, hell  mostly everyone on this site except for tbone, Skullwalker and Myself thought Splatoon would barely reach 1 million lifetime lol look at it now. My point nothing is definite and simply laugh in my face for being positive and expecting a turn around is just rude.

Side if you read my comment it said MIGHT make a comeback 



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DolPhanTendo on 22 October 2015
Hiku said:
DolPhanTendo said:

Yep and the Mets were not supposed to be even close to going to the World Series when spring training started or Oakland A's were picked to be the worst team in 2012 and all of sudden were 5 1/2 back with a week go to the Texas Rangers and end up winning the division that year.

Life is unpredictable, hell  mostly everyone on this site except for tbone, Skullwalker and Myself thought Splatoon would barely reach 1 million lifetime lol look at it now. My point nothing is definite and simply laugh in my face for being positive and expecting a turn around is just rude.

Side if you read my comment it said MIGHT make a comeback 

Well, instead of explaining how or why this comeback would be possible, you're making abstract comparisons.
Life is unpredictable. So technically the Ouya could end up making a comeback. Their company could be bought by Bill Gates for example, and he could sell each unit for $1 dollar. You never know.
But the reason people are not talking about a potential Ouya comeback is because, while it is technically possible, the chances of that happening are probably something like 0,0000001%. That's why people are not considering a possible WiiU comback. Because they're actually looking at the market and what's happening and analyzing it, and see that it's just not realistic, unless Nintendo do something about it.

What you were doing was looking at the YoY increase, and refered to that as something that could warrant a potential comeback. And even compared it to PS3. After people pointed out the holes in your reasoning, you're now saying "life is unpredictable, so anything can happen."
But PS3's didn't come out of nowhere because "life is unpredictable". What they got, they actually earned by sacrificing a lot of money to get back some of the consumer trust they lost. Money they supposedly never earned back. They've always had a very strong presence in Europe to fall back on compared to their competition. And PS3 had a long and bright future in terms of games ahead of itself. WiiU has none of this going for it.

So until Nintendo show any signs of working towards making the WiiU more competetive in tems of price, or supporting it with new games instead of seemingly moving all new game development to the NX, people are not talking about a potential WiiU comeback for a very good reason.

Once again I said MIGHT I wish people would learn to read. In the US and Japan WiiU is doing fine in fact Ever since Splatoon Japan has not seen the WiiU fall below 10,000 when it was always around 6,000. There is one fact for you I'm going off of. Then in the US Nintendo of America did the reasonable thing and push back releases around holiday of this knowing PS4 XOne have low interest in games coming out at that time fact two. 110 percent Increase no matter how small in the install base is still increase, the fact that the increase was in September which is usually not seen thanks Mario Maker.

So with games like Splatoon, Mario Maker, Yoshis Wooly World, Mario Tennis, XenoBlade, Guitar Hero Live, Just Dance, to go along with Kart, Smash,3D World, Tropical Freeze, Bayonetta, Warrriors, and Mario Party. Why can't things move in the right direction? Because their moving on from WiiU. says who? Ever since Iwata has passed we haven't heard much from Nintendo just speculation from "sources". Trust me "sources" are a lousy attempt to put lies out in writing to protect the writer.

Before I start rambling once I said MIGHT never said it would happen 



SWORDF1SH on 22 October 2015
DolPhanTendo said:

Once again I said MIGHT I wish people would learn to read. In the US and Japan WiiU is doing fine in fact Ever since Splatoon Japan has not seen the WiiU fall below 10,000 when it was always around 6,000. There is one fact for you I'm going off of. Then in the US Nintendo of America did the reasonable thing and push back releases around holiday of this knowing PS4 XOne have low interest in games coming out at that time fact two. 110 percent Increase no matter how small in the install base is still increase, the fact that the increase was in September which is usually not seen thanks Mario Maker.

So with games like Splatoon, Mario Maker, Yoshis Wooly World, Mario Tennis, XenoBlade, Guitar Hero Live, Just Dance, to go along with Kart, Smash,3D World, Tropical Freeze, Bayonetta, Warrriors, and Mario Party. Why can't things move in the right direction? Because their moving on from WiiU. says who? Ever since Iwata has passed we haven't heard much from Nintendo just speculation from "sources". Trust me "sources" are a lousy attempt to put lies out in writing to protect the writer.

Before I start rambling once I said MIGHT never said it would happen 


We still on this?

It doesn't matter if you said might, that is irrelevant. You took issue to people saying that the Wii U is very unlikely to come back. Doesn't matter if you said might or definitely, you started this whole argument because people were being "negative" towards the Wii U and went off on one. Now you're hiding under the "b-b-b-but I said 'might'". It doesn't matter, you are still trying to justify why the Wii U can make a come back while other people counter your claims. The only difference is you're taking way to personally and the attitude in your argument just stinks. And if I hear another baseball reference, I think I might just crack up.

Wii U has sold 10M in just under 3 years. It sold 3.6M for the entire year last year and VGC has it 1.3M for the year so far (to Aug 29th). These numbers are abysmal even if it had a 110% increase over previous month (largely due to Sept being a 5 week month). All the increase does is make the abysmal numers and makes them slightly less abysmal.

Wii U has released most of its main games already and it still sells bad. New software does give the Wii U a boost but they only make the numbers slightly less depressing before if fall back to what it was previous weeks. It's clear by now that software is no longer going to save it. And even if a major price cut doubles sales (even then a boost like that is being over optimistic) and the Wii U starts selling 7M a year, those sales are still very average. The PS4 was never below 7M a year until 2014.

Just curb your attitide a bit, you can have a debate about this without acting like a juvenile.



binary solo on 22 October 2015

If people thought we'd get a flurry of numbers on VGC now they probably thought wrong. ioi is probably waiting for the corporate quarterly results to come out before he puts up September numbers.

Also Smeags said get off the Dolphantendo comeback topic. So while I am not able to moderate anything I suggest people heed Smeags because normally defying a Mod has undesireable consequences. I guess it's lucky this thread has gone less active.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

Thespiralmatrix on 22 October 2015

Is forza 6 a flop? 



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SWORDF1SH on 22 October 2015
Hiku said:

I haven't behaved in a bad manner towards him, and neither has he towards me. (Unlike what Swordfish said above, I don't feel that his attitude towards me was bad in any way whatsoever. And Smeags seemingly only had a problem with comments that derail from debating things in an orderly manner using facts/evidence.)

Whoops my bad!

I think he has calmed down a bit from his initial posts. I'll just get off his case.



darkenergy on 23 October 2015
Thespiralmatrix said:

Is forza 6 a flop? 


It's funny that you asked, people are saying it flop because it didn't chart on NPD but when it was revealed it sold 195K(compared to 200K for Forza 5 and that's with the holiday and launch advantage) the talk about it flopping suddenly stop. People really wanted Forza 6 to flop which was just wishful thinking. The holidays will give F6 a nice boost.



Proud to be a Californian.

Farsala on 23 October 2015
darkenergy said:
Thespiralmatrix said:

Is forza 6 a flop? 


It's funny that you asked, people are saying it flop because it didn't chart on NPD but when it was revealed it sold 195K(compared to 200K for Forza 5 and that's with the holiday and launch advantage) the talk about it flopping suddenly stop. People really wanted Forza 6 to flop which was just wishful thinking. The holidays will give F6 a nice boost.


Forza 5 didn't have bundles either.  Honestly both have had poor showings. But you can only expect that with a low XB1 install base.

Halo 5 will outsell all other 1st party titles combined from MS anyways.



darkenergy on 23 October 2015
Farsala said:
darkenergy said:


It's funny that you asked, people are saying it flop because it didn't chart on NPD but when it was revealed it sold 195K(compared to 200K for Forza 5 and that's with the holiday and launch advantage) the talk about it flopping suddenly stop. People really wanted Forza 6 to flop which was just wishful thinking. The holidays will give F6 a nice boost.


Forza 5 didn't have bundles either.  Honestly both have had poor showings. But you can only expect that with a low XB1 install base.

Dont forget that Forza 6 was release one week earlier for those who bought the Ultimate Edition digitally so those weren't counted on the NPD results.



Proud to be a Californian.

DolPhanTendo on 02 December 2015
DolPhanTendo said:
Hiku said:
DolPhanTendo said:

Yep and the Mets were not supposed to be even close to going to the World Series when spring training started or Oakland A's were picked to be the worst team in 2012 and all of sudden were 5 1/2 back with a week go to the Texas Rangers and end up winning the division that year.

Life is unpredictable, hell  mostly everyone on this site except for tbone, Skullwalker and Myself thought Splatoon would barely reach 1 million lifetime lol look at it now. My point nothing is definite and simply laugh in my face for being positive and expecting a turn around is just rude.

Side if you read my comment it said MIGHT make a comeback 

Well, instead of explaining how or why this comeback would be possible, you're making abstract comparisons.
Life is unpredictable. So technically the Ouya could end up making a comeback. Their company could be bought by Bill Gates for example, and he could sell each unit for $1 dollar. You never know.
But the reason people are not talking about a potential Ouya comeback is because, while it is technically possible, the chances of that happening are probably something like 0,0000001%. That's why people are not considering a possible WiiU comback. Because they're actually looking at the market and what's happening and analyzing it, and see that it's just not realistic, unless Nintendo do something about it.

What you were doing was looking at the YoY increase, and refered to that as something that could warrant a potential comeback. And even compared it to PS3. After people pointed out the holes in your reasoning, you're now saying "life is unpredictable, so anything can happen."
But PS3's didn't come out of nowhere because "life is unpredictable". What they got, they actually earned by sacrificing a lot of money to get back some of the consumer trust they lost. Money they supposedly never earned back. They've always had a very strong presence in Europe to fall back on compared to their competition. And PS3 had a long and bright future in terms of games ahead of itself. WiiU has none of this going for it.

So until Nintendo show any signs of working towards making the WiiU more competetive in tems of price, or supporting it with new games instead of seemingly moving all new game development to the NX, people are not talking about a potential WiiU comeback for a very good reason.

Once again I said MIGHT I wish people would learn to read. In the US and Japan WiiU is doing fine in fact Ever since Splatoon Japan has not seen the WiiU fall below 10,000 when it was always around 6,000. There is one fact for you I'm going off of. Then in the US Nintendo of America did the reasonable thing and push back releases around holiday of this knowing PS4 XOne have low interest in games coming out at that time fact two. 110 percent Increase no matter how small in the install base is still increase, the fact that the increase was in September which is usually not seen thanks Mario Maker.

So with games like Splatoon, Mario Maker, Yoshis Wooly World, Mario Tennis, XenoBlade, Guitar Hero Live, Just Dance, to go along with Kart, Smash,3D World, Tropical Freeze, Bayonetta, Warrriors, and Mario Party. Why can't things move in the right direction? Because their moving on from WiiU. says who? Ever since Iwata has passed we haven't heard much from Nintendo just speculation from "sources". Trust me "sources" are a lousy attempt to put lies out in writing to protect the writer.

Before I start rambling once I said MIGHT never said it would happen 

Feels good to see WiiU doing well. I had positive feeling back in September and looks like it is doing slightly well for the holiday. My quote right here is why I thought it would sell well. Super excited to see how it does from here until the end of 2015 maybe get to 13.7 million by then.

Smart for Nintendo to push back Fox and Zelda for 2016. After the holidays you get first half of 2016 Star Fox, Twilight Princess, Pokken Tournament and maybe few other surprises like my guess late May release for Zelda.

Had plenty of great games this year to sell