Yep, I have to agree with OP. However it'll be close, I'm sure it won't be easy as we imagined before since Sony has cut the PS4 price and announced good bundurus.

No to both.PS4 will dominate software and hardware.

It's a definite maybe from me. The top Xb one sku (which is looking like Halo 5 LE bundle) needs to get into the low 20s on Amazon monthly for me to be confident that Xb one can take October. And if a few more of the 5 special bundles recently announced can crack the Amazon monthly top 100 that would help build up confidence in predicting a Xb one win. I think without the PS4 price cut the W for Xb one would have been a no-brainer. But the price cut has thrown things for a bit of a loop, esp without a reactive price cut from MS, at least probably not one coming until at least November and possibly not at all this year.

Software-wise, yes I think Halo 5 will almost single handedly give the win to Xb one.

I think software wise, halo will be tops. Hardware, I'm not sure. Halo will certainly push the x1 way up, but so is the price drop for the ps4. If the x1 does win, that's pretty impressive. That would mean halo 5 by itself, was able to make the x1 outsell the ps4's price drop, that's a pretty impressive achievement.

software > yeah, halo wins!

Hardware >
Oct - Not sure here... Ps4 took a very solid lead and X1 isn't closing that gap on Amazon... the thing will be close.
Nov - Star wars is selling like hot cakes and CoD III is making great numbers, i think PS4 will take november,but it will be close.

I think the PS4 will win Oct NPD with hardware and software. Pretty much a full month of a PS4 price cut versus halo 5 with little over a week of sales plus preorders. Even if the price cut and halo 5 had a full month of sales, no game will move more consoles than the first price cut for a console. 

No bone will lose again

Whens halo 5 releasing??

Its a good enough sample size to get a idea of what general sales are like in the us (even if not all sales happy through amazon).

So far I believe it hasnt once been wrong about who wins which month (HW sales), since the new gen started.

Software is guaranteed for XB1. Unless Microsoft manages to screw up the Halo 5 software sales badly.

Now, hardware...I'm pretty sure the PS4 price drop would outweigh the Halo 5 release, and we all know that the base case is a PS4 win.