has the xbox tomb raider bundle ever popped on any of these lists?

Yes it is. It was just the simple idea that whoever won the monthlies won the month. People like to speculate around that idea but it all boils down to that in the end. When people talk about the Amazon record they're talking about which console is at the top, not how many consoles are in the top 100 with varying places. The difference in April (and May) was 7k if I remember correctly, so it was basically a toss up for April.

This is why people say Amazon has been wrong once. It really is that simple.

ya it was simple prior to April 2015. Generally it was a 1 SKU versus 1 SKU thing. I also agree with the pre-order argument. All of those Halo preorder bundles for the past few months will all be sold in October, but the same token all of those CoD and Star Wars bundles will count for PS4 in Novemeber NDP.

I think Xbox wins October my a decent margin. Not going to be a blow away, but 40-50k. PS4 will win Nov and Dec by a solid margin unless MS does something drastic. Halo has come and gone. Tomb Raider is not going to move the needle.

If you mean Amazon charts, then no. It's only going to be sold from Microsoft and Best Buy stores. 

Turn around from what? Not keeping up with the PS4? Or not making money? I know they are making money on the Xbox Brand, so you must mean the data point of not keeping up on sales of systems. So no nail in the coffin that I see, just different sales. Mazda is still around but gets outsold by toyota every year. :P

But that simple idea was proven wrong.... Doesn't matter if it was a small gap, those are the months that are hard to predict. I could've, and would've,  said that the PS4 would've won january to september NPD without using Amazon, and I would've been correct for all but april, which was the toss-up, and, as a result, the month where Amazon was the most useful.

I mean, if the Halo bundle was at #10, and the PS4 had SKUs through #11 to #20 (meaning all those places), would you say Amazon predicted an XBO win? I mean, sure, there's a theoretical possibility that #10 sold more than #11, #12 .....#20 combined, but common sense would suggest it didn't. Of cpurse, that's taking it to the extreme, but it's to illustrate my point. This month, the XBO's and the PS4's top SKUs will be neck in neck, regardless of which one ends up ahead, however the places below that suggests that the PS4 is ahead. Halo bundle pre-orders make this a bit harder, but even factoring those in, I think Amazon is suggesting a (slim) PS4 win.

Of course, we only have rankings, not hard numbers, so it's all up for your own interpretation how you'll weigh rankings against wachother, but that doesn't mean you should disregard everything except the top SKU.

You're overcomplicating the argument about whether Amazon is right or wrong. Amazon has been wrong once. It's as simple as that. It's still and always has been whichever console leads in the monthlies. We've even been debating in this very thread that Amazon could be wrong this month because of preorders and I'm certian you joined in that discussion. It would be considered wrong if the console at the top doesn't win, hence it's simply about which console is at the top. Every other time the only reason we've said Amazon was right is because the console that won was the lead console on Amazon too. That's how it's been throughout.

If you compicate it like this then the argument about whether Amazon is right or wrong becomes muddled. 'Oh well, Amazon wasn't wrong because of 'a' and 'b''. It's either wrong or right depending on who is at the top of the monthlies.

I'm more inclined to say you are oversimplifying it, rather than that I'm overcomplicating it, but okay. Agree to disagree.

With no hard numbers, it is a good reference point. Could still be more improved by looking at other online retailers as well to compare them all in the same data field. But alas, this is a Amazon only thread so we have to make due with what data we can gather and try to best assume what turns out.

Cant we all just be friends?

I think we have a completely different understanding of how the Amazon prediction works. It's not about raw chart position of a single bundle. Even if the Halo bundle is not in front of the charts at month's end an X1 wins that does not mean Amazon was wrong. You still have to take into account the previous months. In fact I think it's so close this month that it's impossible for Amazon to actually be wrong depending on how you interpret the charts.