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Teeqoz on 30 October 2015
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GribbleGrunger said:
Teeqoz said:


But that simple idea was proven wrong.... Doesn't matter if it was a small gap, those are the months that are hard to predict. I could've, and would've,  said that the PS4 would've won january to september NPD without using Amazon, and I would've been correct for all but april, which was the toss-up, and, as a result, the month where Amazon was the most useful.

 

I mean, if the Halo bundle was at #10, and the PS4 had SKUs through #11 to #20 (meaning all those places), would you say Amazon predicted an XBO win? I mean, sure, there's a theoretical possibility that #10 sold more than #11, #12 .....#20 combined, but common sense would suggest it didn't. Of cpurse, that's taking it to the extreme, but it's to illustrate my point. This month, the XBO's and the PS4's top SKUs will be neck in neck, regardless of which one ends up ahead, however the places below that suggests that the PS4 is ahead. Halo bundle pre-orders make this a bit harder, but even factoring those in, I think Amazon is suggesting a (slim) PS4 win.

 

Of course, we only have rankings, not hard numbers, so it's all up for your own interpretation how you'll weigh rankings against wachother, but that doesn't mean you should disregard everything except the top SKU.

You're overcomplicating the argument about whether Amazon is right or wrong. Amazon has been wrong once. It's as simple as that. It's still and always has been whichever console leads in the monthlies. We've even been debating in this very thread that Amazon could be wrong this month because of preorders and I'm certian you joined in that discussion. It would be considered wrong if the console at the top doesn't win, hence it's simply about which console is at the top. Every other time the only reason we've said Amazon was right is because the console that won was the lead console on Amazon too. That's how it's been throughout.

If you compicate it like this then the argument about whether Amazon is right or wrong becomes muddled. 'Oh well, Amazon wasn't wrong because of 'a' and 'b''. It's either wrong or right depending on who is at the top of the monthlies.


I'm more inclined to say you are oversimplifying it, rather than that I'm overcomplicating it, but okay. Agree to disagree.