You will not see a PS4 price cut this year. It's not happening.

Given PS4 is up YoY I've gone from being pretty sure PS4 will get a price cut this year to pretty sure it won't. There deosn't seem to any comercial imperative in favour of a price cut.

On a possible MS price cut I would think saving things up for a big ole $100 price cut (along with a slim/remodel) next year might be a better move than a $50 cut this year and another one next year. If Halo 5 kills it in October then don;t expect a price cut IMO. If Halo only leads to a modest October NPD win for Xb one, then a price cut could be on the cards. MS seems to be determined to win Oct, Nov and Dec in the USA because the only narrative they have is "the holiday period is the most important period." and if they can't claim wins at that time of year they really have nothing to work with from a PR perspective. You can only squeeze mileage out of references to performance against 360 for so long before it starts wearing thin because you are always running behind your main competition.

If Sony ARE going to play the price game then my thinking would be: Announce a $100 price drop at the start of October that is a one off deal for one month only to create panic buying for October. But when they then increase the price they only increase it by $50, making the PS4 still $50 cheaper than it was originally. Then in march, when Uncharted 4 releases, drop it by that $50 permanently.

I think that Gears and Rare Replay are great offerings.  But they will still be there during the holiday.  I know someone who really wants Rear Replay and Killer Instinct but wil be waiting for the inpending 'Black Friday Super Deal'. This is how people are thinking.  PS4 does better becasue people want it and the games, but there is far less emphisis on waiting for the holiday.    When you compare this to last gen, Sony is doing so much better that it really makes you want to take a look at exactly they are doing.  I invite you to read Sony's PR:

“We would like to thank our fans and partners for their ongoing support of PlayStation and for making PS4 the top-selling console and No. 1 in software sales in North America in August. We continue to demonstrate our commitment to delivering the best content line-up with the launch of first-party exclusives like Until Dawn and third-party titles like Madden NFL 16, which sold more on PS4 than any other platform. In August we also saw the most successful beta in PS4 history with Call of Duty: Black Ops III, marking a significant milestone in our new partnership with Activision. We look forward to furthering momentum with the launch of Destiny: The Taken King next week.”

They are associating major 3rd party games with PlayStation in their PR.  They included Madden, BO3 amd Destiny.  They win because they have taken what Microsoft has taught them and amplified it.   Its 'very effective' in Pokemon terms. 

They're up yoy, I mean 24 months without a price cut is pretty intense but they really don't need to do one. Sony will sell a but tonne in the holidays and win single handedly world wide they don't need to drop the price and loss some profit margins for a territory they win in without doing anything for most of the year.

Damn, that is some good PR. They just keep saying the names of the big upcoming games as close to "PS4" as possible. This holiday is going to be crazy.

And there it is. Quite possible that Xb one actually got more copies of Madden into houses, but as NPD doesn't count official bundles Sony gets to use Madden as a PR win instead of MS. Though perhaps if Madden sold more on Xb one when counting the bundle MS could come out with PR along those lines. But in this situations it's a case of early bird gets the worm rather than second mouse gets the cheese.

I agree with you there.

Will we get numbers for ps4 soon?

Oops, I meant to quote the person who was suggesting the UC collection might compete against Halo 5. Oh well, at least your post was on the same subject