What are your thoughts of things to come? Predictions for major shifts in sales?  Exclusives that will change the way things are going.

If you pick a number that looks like the last few weeks...

I am going to pick

220k for wii, 170 for PS3, 140 for 360 - a little hard on Wii, a little generous for the other two.

 Of course there will be higher holiday sales, but it will probably only add an extra 5-10 million for each. So I will say for the sake of arguement these will be the numbers.

 So what and how do you think things like price drops or exclusives shift this around?

(These numbers are not my prediction, just a projection of current numbers.) 

as the price for these consoles goes down, sales will increase per week. No way Wii is staying in the 60 mil. range for this gen.

 I don't agree, the past trends have been that sales go down and then a price cut returns them to where they were... except during the holidays.

stockstar, that's the Wii's minimum.

Except that in most places, they can't keep Wiis on the shelf for more than a couple of hours, so when produciton is fixed, we have no idea how much they'll start selling.

So, where is this '2-3 more years' coming from?  The oldest console right now is just over 2 years old.  This gen is lasting from 6-10 years.

 good point, I think there is a 10% chance we will see a new XBOX out by Xmas 10 (really depends on how 360 sells), but other than that I can't imagine Sony putting a new console out til at least 2013, which is more like 260 weeks away.  Nintendo won't be putting out a new console either for quite a while (2013 at the earliest).

I love all those talks about end of generation.
I have yet to see any game that would require more powerfull consoles to run on.

I think this generation will last longer than most have been predicting it....

When the PS2 was 3 years old you could make the case that PC were starting to see games that woudn't run on a console, that is far from being the case now....

And if any of the big 3 jumps the gun and releases a new console way before the others they are going to have a hard time making the case that gamers have to upgrade ( Nintendo is the only one that could arguably do it.)

I think those numbers will be within the ballpark.

Grab a flameshield, you put the PS3 1 million BEHIND the 360.

@Starcraft: I didn't put it there the current number did... but nobody is flaming me for that. They are flaming me for calling it the end of the generation and for not saying that I did it wrong. That's the point, they are supposed to be talking about what will change it. (Plus they seem to think I am attacking their console no matter which one they are a fan boy of.)

220k for wii?
that is only 950k/month when they are producing 1.8mil/month

also, 180 weeks is 3.46 years...

1.8mil*12=21.6mil/year * 3.46 years = 74.74mil + 22.26 mil = 97mil, not the 70 u are predicting

your 70mil just makes no logical sense based on current production and historical/current wii sales trends

basically, if u want to have a discussion around what things could change the current trends in the future, u need to get the current trends accurate first...the current trend is for wii to sell everything they ship that year, so 21.6mil/year at current production rates...

if u'd rather discuss why wii won't continue to sell at that rate, then that's fine, but your post is about what things will change the CURRENT TRENDS and so you need to start with a baseline of the current trend, which is 97mil wiis in 180 weeks

so start at 97mil and then give your logic on why it will miss that mark by 27mil