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Forums - Nintendo - I believe XenoBlade X will sell well this holidays. What's your opinion? ( poll )

 

The thread title

It will bombed hard like The Wonderful 101. 54 22.50%
 
It will bombed hard like Splatoon. :D 61 25.42%
 
It will sell great... not... 125 52.08%
 
Total:240
Ryng_Tolu said:
yvanjean said:
If it reach 1 million that would be a major success. The Wii version barely sold 900k with a much larger install base.

I say it will have a hard time getting to 500k.

Is already over 100k in Japan withouth digital, and the game is selling better in the other market... 500k is pessimist, expecially if you say is hard.

 

Xenoblade X WiiU      
         
Japan First Ten Weeks (Units)
   
         
Week Ending Week Weekly Change Total
02nd May 2015 1 86,574 N/A 86,574
09th May 2015 2 11,626 -86.60% 98,200
16th May 2015 3 4,236 -63.60% 102,436
23rd May 2015 4 2,545 -39.90% 104,981
30th May 2015 5 1,753 -31.10% 106,734
06th June 2015 6 1,279 -27.00% 108,013
13th June 2015 7 912 -28.70% 108,925
20th June 2015 8 762 -16.40% 109,687
27th June 2015 9 690 -9.40% 110,377
         
Japan Annual Summary (Units)
   
         
Year Yearly Change Total  
2015 110,377 N/A 110,377  
         
Xenoblade Chronicles (Wii)      
         
Japan First Ten Weeks (Units)
   
         
Week Ending Week Weekly Change Total
12th June 2010 1 82,083 N/A 82,083
19th June 2010 2 20,983 -74.40% 103,066
26th June 2010 3 11,850 -43.50% 114,916
03rd July 2010 4 7,206 -39.20% 122,122
10th July 2010 5 5,075 -29.60% 127,197
17th July 2010 6 2,956 -41.80% 130,153
24th July 2010 7 2,468 -16.50% 132,621
31st July 2010 8 2,123 -14.00% 134,744
07th August 2010 9 1,713 -19.30% 136,457
14th August 2010 10 1,611 -6.00% 138,068
         
Japan Annual Summary (Units)
   
         
Year Yearly Change Total  
2010 150,884 N/A 150,884  
2011 8,021 -94.70% 158,905  
2012 83 -99.00% 158,988  
         


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mZuzek said:
You need to look back at Nintendo's E3 showing. They made it pretty clear which game is the big holiday title, and that wasn't Xenoblade Chronicles X. I don't think this is getting a lot of advertising at all.

They're going to focus completely on Super Mario Maker and Star Fox Zero.

So, do you think will sell great, or will do badly?



I love Xenoblade .... but it's a niche game with a limited market. The only major boost will be from having it bundle.

The bundle will help increase sales of the game that's why I think it can sell over 500K.



yvanjean said:
I love Xenoblade .... but it's a niche game with a limited market. The only major boost will be from having it bundle.

The bundle will help increase sales of the game that's why I think it can sell over 500K.

"XenoBlade is a niche game compared to Splatoon ( a shooter) That's true.

Even BloodBorne is a niche game, and it sold 1 million in just 2 weeks thanks a very good marketing.

But BloodBorne is on PS4, a console with the HUGE sales... ok, but so? We already see how can sell a Wii U game even if is a Wii U game.

You guys seriusly underestimate the attach rate of those games."



mZuzek said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

So, do you think will sell great, or will do badly?

Well that depends on what you consider great or bad.

I think it'll do around 900k-1m.

In my opinion, 1 million is sufficient. Not bad and not great.



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It'll certainly sell a million, I have confidence on that. Beyond that? Dunno, hopefully I can be surprised.

I'll definitely call that it'll not have the same level of success and legs Splatoon has though. Niche game and it'll be lucky to have more than one advertisement.



Over 1 million (if you're talking LT in N.A and Europe) sounds like an okay estimation to me. What with Nintendo putting Xenoblade X information in their Directs and E3 Digital Event (even giving it it's own one), including Shulk in Smash Bros., having it's own bundle and all of the positive buzz about Xenoblade Chronicles after Operation Rainfall I feel as though the stage is set for Xenoblade X to carve a out a little niche for itself.
Over the holidays I believe X will sell okay for a game of it's kind but it's not going to be something that will light the JRPG world on fire in terms of sales.



It won't do a million in just 28 days for this year, but it'll get there not long after.



What can I say by now,is that its release date,is extremely beneficial(as it was for captain toad treasure tracker)!In the first week of December,the month,when sales are skyrocketing into (excluding Black Friday week,it's only in theUSA),having other three weeks of December in front of it,which one of them is the highest selling week of all the year....Holy sh@t!


And sell 1m lifetime(which is my conservative expectation about the game,1.5-2m is the optimistic one) is great providing that the wii version in a far bigger installbase didn't manage it(well it is still possible to happen)!


Although,Size of installbase isn't everything,how many people of the specific installbase will buy the game is very important,for instance if the sales of a console are at 20m where a game sells 3m,and in 10m 1.5m,but the 50% of the 10m owners of the console can buy the game,i.e 5m, and the sales of the game being on a higher selling console but with a lower attach rate!
That's attach rate,not something which is just related to the heights of the sales of a console,to explain it further,if something sells 5m on 10m installbase,it's 50% attach rate,some people will say,that's expected with low installbase,but it can have the same attach rate on a higher installbase by selling accordingly...
Who knows that the 5m on 10m installbase,wouldnt'be 10m on 20m installbase?Okay,it sells double in the double installbase,so it sells more,however,this is not a result of having higher installbase as it seems to be(it could sell lower and even lower than the version of the 10m installbase with poor attach rate) but having the 50% of the owners of the console willing to buy the game...

Will Nintendo market the game?hmmm,it has to...Anyway,it won't flop for sure!Also the bundle with game is a limited version/temporal thing?

 

 

 



I'm positive it'll do 500k at least. A million would be a landmark!

Lets hope for the best.