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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo is expecting to ship 20 million NX consoles in the first year

 

Can they reach the goal?

Of course it will 64 17.58%
 
They're insane... 300 82.42%
 
Total:364

That's G.



I am a Nintendo fanatic.

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zorg1000 said:
Nem said:
Err... if its after dropping the WiiU like a rock... no chance. It will do 2m at best on the home market and if its a handheld it will do a bit more. Either way, it sounds like they are commiting the same mistake they did with the Wii U by severely overestimating demand.


U seem pretty adamant on dropping Wii U early hurting Nintendo when it's been proven to u that such things have happened multiple times to great results.


You are mistaken. Nothing of the sort was proven. 

But, wait and see, i suppose.



Conina said:
zorg1000 said:
sultanofpoon said:


3ds + w-u LOL.  Anything can be big if you start combining 2 different products.


Ummm the person u originally quoted said if it's a type of unification of handheld & console, if that happens than its only logical to compare it to both devices.

I suppose a big share of the early adopters who bought the Wii U in its first year also bought the 3DS in its first year... so a few million early adopters bought both devices; there was also enough time between the 2 launches to save some money for the second device.

But if the NX-handheld and the NX-console get released in the same year and play both the same games... how many of the Nintendo hardcore base will again buy both devices within the same year instead of choosing one of them?

True there is a decent amount of overlap but the hardcore Nintendo fans will most likely buy both and ur completely ignoring what I said in my other post, 3DS/Wii U both had high launch prices with software droughts and bad marketing/advertising.

This same rumor states the device(s) will be $150 plus a unified strategy allows for a more consistent release schedule. The continued expansion of Amiibo figurines/cards, multi-device account system/rewards program, Mobile games/apps, theme park attractions, Quality of Life integration, and rumored films/series shows they are committed to pushing new ways of advertising/marketing.

I'm not saying 20 million in the first year is a sure thing, just pointing out that it's not some unobtainable goal like many others claim.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

This just in..

The NX is a amazon fire type cloud box that price tag is 99 dollars, plays complete Nintendo new and old library for a monthly fee of 10 dollars a month. It also allows you to play all those titles on any tablet or cell phone (if it's compatible).

If it's not that I don't know how you reach 20 million.



Nem said:
zorg1000 said:


U seem pretty adamant on dropping Wii U early hurting Nintendo when it's been proven to u that such things have happened multiple times to great results.


You are mistaken. Nothing of the sort was proven. 

But, wait and see, i suppose.


Master System was replaced after 3 years, successor became most popular console Sega ever released

Gameboy Advance was replaced after 3.5 years, successor became most popular device Nintendo ever released

Xbox was replaced after 4 years, successor became most popular console Microsoft has ever released

That is proof that an early replacement does not automatically mean result in a bad performance.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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padib said:
Lawlight said:


In the way that it became a fad. Fads are lucky strikes.

Kind of like Pokemon, or Mario?

We don't really know why the Wii fizzled, so to just dismiss it as a fad is ignoring that Nintendo has many times struck lightning and held it. Who knows, the Wii craze could reignite, my best conclusion on the Wii situation is that people got saturated with it and it was poorly managed in the end of the Wii's lifecycle.

Pokemon wasn't really a lucky strike though - they spent $50M marketing it in the west 2 decades ago. Mario was shipped with every console sold.

But I can you why the Wii fizzled. It was a gimmick that catered to the casual audience (not to be confused with mainstream) like the elderly - an audience who's not actually interested in gaming but toys. They probably looked at the Eye Toy fad and decided to make a console based on that gimmick.



padib said:
Lawlight said:

Pokemon wasn't really a lucky strike though - they spent $50M marketing it in the west 2 decades ago. Mario was shipped with every console sold.

But I can you why the Wii fizzled. It was a gimmick that catered to the casual audience (not to be confused with mainstream) like the elderly - an audience who's not actually interested in gaming but toys. They probably looked at the Eye Toy fad and decided to make a console based on that gimmick.

How are you certain that Pokemon didn't appeal to children who at first had absolutely no interest in gaming?

Also, I remember Tetris appealing to people of all ages, young and old.

As for marketing, so was the Wii marketed. That's not what defines a lucky strike.


So, where's the Wii with its motion controls now? Come on, you know it was a fad and was never going to last.



Maybe its because it will be handheld and console version?



I also plan on releasing a new console and I expect it to sell 50 million the first year...see people can say whatever they want on the internet :)



sultanofpoon said:
zorg1000 said:

How do u know it's only one device? Last year Iwata spoke about how a unified approach could possibly lead to them increasing the amount of former factors.


Unified approach does not mean 20 million year one...the market for people who want to play Handheld games on a big TV is noit large, and the handheld market is shrinking...Whats the point of a handheld if you can;t take it with you? If they cater to the handhld market the home onsole market suffers, and nig scale AAA games don;t work well on a mobile platform...you cannot marry the two.

 

Its not as simple as them saying w are unifying the two and it will work, trhe two models conflict.


Most Nintendo games don't really have that big barrier between handheld/console, some work better or are more desirable on one form factor than the other but the vast majority of Nintendo games are fully playable on either form factor. Does Animal Crossing only work well on handhelds? No, the GC & Wii entries prove otherwise. Does the gameplay of 3D Zelda only work on home consoles? No, Ocarina of Time 3D & Majora's Mask 3D prove otherwise.

Nintendo has merged their handheld & console software teams, no longer will games be thought of as just a handheld or just a console game, but rather just a game in general and will be designed with both form factors in mind. U can't say the two can't successfully be married since the idea had never truly been tried.

I'm not saying 20 million is a sure thing, I was just pointing out that first year sales of 3DS+Wii U were 20 million while making a large amount of mistakes so if they have a good strategy, nice price point, steady flow of software and strong advertising than something like 5 million for the console and 15 million for the handheld is not an unbelievable task.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.