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Forums - Sales Discussion - Ethomaz's Japan Sales Trending Prediction For 2015 (373,286 For PS4 1.5m)

hiska-kun on 11 November 2015

PS4 needs to average 61k weekly to reach that conservative prediction.



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ethomaz on 11 November 2015
hiska-kun said:

PS4 needs to average 61k weekly to reach that conservative prediction.

It will sell over 100k the last weeks of December in my opinion.



hiska-kun on 02 December 2015

PS4 needs to average at 82k to reach the conservative prediction of 1.500.000 million



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tbone51 on 02 December 2015

Wiiu going to outsell ps4 in Dec?



tak13 on 02 December 2015
tbone51 said:
Wiiu going to outsell ps4 in Dec?


 I can't say that it will but it definately can... Splatoon bundle and super mario maker...! Also SMT X FE on the 26th of December, even thougth that game isn't being promoted as it should be and I start feeling that it probably won't  have any significant effect on wii u sales, despite being released in a week with astronomical sales for Japan and the fact that is a game with the Japanese factor/appeal...

I mean, last week wii u rised by 6k (14->20k)  while ps4 dropped by 4k(29k->25k)... That in a week when holiday effect starts in Japan! :P

Also wii u has a fairly similar perfomance with this in its peak year ( Next week should  tells us if this trend will continue tlll the end of holidays) when it had huge holiday sales, 2013!



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OneKartVita on 02 December 2015
tak13 said:
tbone51 said:
Wiiu going to outsell ps4 in Dec?


 I can't say that it will but it definately can... Splatoon bundle and super mario maker...! Also SMT X FE on the 26th of December, even thougth that game isn't being promoted as it should be and I start feeling that it probably won't  have any significant effect on wii u sales, despite being released in a week with astronomical sales for Japan and the fact that is a game with the Japanese factor/appeal...

I mean, last week wii u rised by 6k (14->20k)  while ps4 dropped by 4k(29k->25k)... That in a week when holiday effect starts in Japan! :P

Also wii u has a fairly similar perfomance with this in its peak year ( Next week should  tells us if this trend will continue tlll the end of holidays) when it had huge holiday sales, 2013!


It definitely can happen but probably won't.  The ps4 has fallout 4 and so far it's been doing much better than any wii u game yet to release this year.  

 

Ps4 baseline is far higher and it was coming off a boost so that's why it returned to its ~25k baseline the week after battlefront.  

 

It will interesting to see for sure,  vita and 3DS too. 



hiska-kun on 02 December 2015

Holiday season is going to be: 3DS>>>PS4>WiiU>PSV Yeah, some kind of battle could happen between PS4 and WiiU but PS4 will win at the end



Media Create Annual Archive (Spanish version)

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LipeJJ on 02 December 2015
tak13 said:
tbone51 said:
Wiiu going to outsell ps4 in Dec?


 I can't say that it will but it definately can... Splatoon bundle and super mario maker...! Also SMT X FE on the 26th of December, even thougth that game isn't being promoted as it should be and I start feeling that it probably won't  have any significant effect on wii u sales, despite being released in a week with astronomical sales for Japan and the fact that is a game with the Japanese factor/appeal...

I mean, last week wii u rised by 6k (14->20k)  while ps4 dropped by 4k(29k->25k)... That in a week when holiday effect starts in Japan! :P

Also wii u has a fairly similar perfomance with this in its peak year ( Next week should  tells us if this trend will continue tlll the end of holidays) when it had huge holiday sales, 2013!

Yeah, it can happen. Look at that Wii U boost this week (and the PS4 actually dropped)... we need to see how that will carry on the following weeks.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

Bofferbrauer on 02 December 2015

What gets released this december in Japan for PS4? Looking at COMG!, there doesn't seem to be very much, and certainly not too much pushing the console very far over several weeks.



ethomaz on 09 December 2015

More 4 3 weeks to end the year... can my early estimates become true?

Updated.

Wii U (Up YoY)

2014: 508.552
2015: 603.578 (+19%)

PS4 (Up YoY)

2014: 838.525
2015: 1.126.714 (+34%)

 

PS4 will reach 1.5m?
WiiU will staty below 750k?