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Forums - Sales Discussion - Ethomaz's Japan Sales Trending Prediction For 2015 (373,286 For PS4 1.5m)

The trend continues the same... Wii U a bit up yoy and PS4 heavy up yoy.
I can't think about anything that can make my prediction off right now.

Wii U (Up YoY)

2014: 428.921
2015: 447.432

PS4 (Up YoY)

2014: 745.126
2015: 903.925

 

PS4 will hit 1.5m this year and Wii U will do less than 750k.



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Just to add a bit more.

PS4 will cross 1 million YTD in about 4 weeks (Nov 1)... after that it will need to sell 500k in the Holidays (Nov + Dec).

Last year it sold 200k in Nov + Dec combined.



ethomaz said:

The trend continues the same... Wii U a bit up yoy and PS4 heavy up yoy.
I can't think about anything that can make my prediction off right now.

Wii U (Up YoY)

2014: 428.921
2015: 447.432

PS4 (Up YoY)

2014: 745.126
2015: 903.925

 

PS4 will hit 1.5m this year and Wii U will do less than 750k.

So PS4 needs to average 50k weekly from now until the end of the year to reach your "conservative" prediction. 

Again, good luck.



Media Create Annual Archive (Spanish version)

http://zonaforo.meristation.com/topic/2246651/

1.3M for PS4
650k for Wii U



hiska-kun said:
ethomaz said:

The trend continues the same... Wii U a bit up yoy and PS4 heavy up yoy.
I can't think about anything that can make my prediction off right now.

Wii U (Up YoY)

2014: 428.921
2015: 447.432

PS4 (Up YoY)

2014: 745.126
2015: 903.925

 

PS4 will hit 1.5m this year and Wii U will do less than 750k.

So PS4 needs to average 50k weekly from now until the end of the year to reach your "conservative" prediction. 

Again, good luck.


No, he's expecting November and December combined to considerably boost the YTD like it did last year. Last year it did 200k, and it's safe to say it will sell more this holiday because of the lower price and more available games, so I could definitely see it reaching at least 1.3M at the end of the year. If, for the moment, you would assume the PS4 woul sell 60k during the last 3 yet to be counted weeks of this month, it would only have to sell an additional 340k to even reach that 1.3M, which seems very much in reach, so that might be a conservative estimate, and 1.5M doesn't seem that crazy anymore.



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McReally said:
hiska-kun said:

So PS4 needs to average 50k weekly from now until the end of the year to reach your "conservative" prediction. 

Again, good luck.


No, he's expecting November and December combined to considerably boost the YTD like it did last year. Last year it did 200k, and it's safe to say it will sell more this holiday because of the lower price and more available games, so I could definitely see it reaching at least 1.3M at the end of the year. If, for the moment, you would assume the PS4 woul sell 60k during the last 3 yet to be counted weeks of this month, it would only have to sell an additional 340k to even reach that 1.3M, which seems very much in reach, so that might be a conservative estimate, and 1.5M doesn't seem that crazy anymore.

You should read his posts. He's expecting 1.5M minimum, not less than that, and that's he's low end. Meaning that he would expect 1.6M, 1.7M or more.



Media Create Annual Archive (Spanish version)

http://zonaforo.meristation.com/topic/2246651/

PS4 continue to hold a over 200% yoy grow per week.

Wii U (Up YoY)

2014: 434.214
2015: 489.090

PS4 (Up YoY)

2014: 753.172
2015: 929.624



The actual PS4WiiU GAP:

732.379

Closing so fast that it is possible to be below 500k before year ends.



New update.

Wii U (Up YoY)

2014: 443.183
2015: 508.178

PS4 (Up YoY)

2014: 771.020
2015: 974.529

 

PS4 just passed the last year sales before holidays.



Sky's the limit!