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Forums - Nintendo - Reality check: The NX MUST be successful.

bunchanumbers on 27 June 2015
Conina said:
zorg1000 said:
How much does it need to sell and how much profit does it need to make in order to be considered successful?

Well, if it replaces the 3DS and the Wii U it should sell at least more than 3DS + WiiU hardware combined to be considered successful (60 million for now, but until NX launches that number will grow).

70 million devices (handhelds and home consoles combined) lifetime sales would be the absolute minimum to stop the downward spiral, more than 100 million devices could be considered successful (DS + Wii combined were 250 million devices, but that will never happen again).

Software sales also shouldn't be lower than 3DS + WiiU software combined.

There will be differences though. If it is a fusion style system there won't be as much double dipping. LIke 3D Land and 3D World. Or MK7 and MK8 etc. I actually think that software sales may dip for certain franchises but hardware sales will increase.



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OnlyForDisplay on 27 June 2015

Indeed Spem-San. While they do profit off of each system, this still doesn't help them overall. I want to the NX to be a success due to the fact that variety and options are needed: Nintendo's charm and creativity being needed more than ever due to the current era of gaming. If Nintendo doesn't succeed, then gaming could possibly not be the same again.



" It has never been about acknowledgement when you achieve something. When you are acknowledged, then and only then can you achieve something. Always have your friends first to achieve your goals later." - OnlyForDisplay

sc94597 on 27 June 2015
Danman27 said:
Snesboy said:
Danman27 said:
Yep. If the nx fails, it might be the end of nintendo's home console business.

People have been saying this for 15 years, it's not going to happen.

 

@OP

So am I doing my part when I buy the system and don't buy any games for it? That's what I did with Wii U.

Of their past 4 consoles, 3 have performed poorly. That's really bad news. If they have a fourth failure, no one will want to back nintendo consoles. 


They had? Both the N64 and GC were more profitable than their competition in HW and HW+SW. For a firm that is all that matters.



StuOhQ on 27 June 2015

Of their past 4 consoles, 3 have performed poorly. That's really bad news. If they have a fourth failure, no one will want to back nintendo consoles. 


They had? Both the N64 and GC were more profitable than their competition in HW and HW+SW. For a firm that is all that matters.


Everyone seems to neglect the fact that Nintendo made good money on every GCN and N64 sold. Many financial journals were quick to point out that Nintendo made more money on the Gamecube than Sony made on the PS2. Nintendo was sitting on mad loot before they even launched the Wii. That's why they turned down Microsoft's billion dollar offer for Xbox 2nd party exclusitivity. 

The NX can be a failure without ending Nintendo as we know it, so long as it's a profitable failure like the N64 and GCN. 



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Soundwave on 27 June 2015
StuOhQ said:


They had? Both the N64 and GC were more profitable than their competition in HW and HW+SW. For a firm that is all that matters.


Everyone seems to neglect the fact that Nintendo made good money on every GCN and N64 sold. Many financial journals were quick to point out that Nintendo made more money on the Gamecube than Sony made on the PS2. Nintendo was sitting on mad loot before they even launched the Wii. That's why they turned down Microsoft's billion dollar offer for Xbox 2nd party exclusitivity. 

The NX can be a failure without ending Nintendo as we know it, so long as it's a profitable failure like the N64 and GCN. 


Somewhat misleading. The GameCube almost assuredly didn't make Nintendo more money than the PS2 did. However when you factor in GBA sales, which averaged about 18 million units a year (huge numbers) then yes they did make more overall profit than just the PS2 alone. 



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GribbleGrunger on 27 June 2015

I reckon the NX will be backward compatible with the WiiU. The low install base of the WiiU actually helps Nintendo in that regard. When they released the new 3DS, the old 3DS already had an install base of 50m and there was no way in hell that developers were going to make games specifically for the better hardware and cut out a potential audience of 50m. But that's different with the WiiU and devs will actually see a good reason to finish projects they currently have on the WiiU and begin new projects on the NX.



 

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zorg1000 on 27 June 2015
spemanig said:
Snesboy said:

People have been saying this for 15 years, it's not going to happen.

 

@OP

So am I doing my part when I buy the system and don't buy any games for it? That's what I did with Wii U.


"Doing your part" isn't really the point I was trying to make. I'm just saying that if Nintendo doesn't hit it out of the park with the NX, they aren't the ones who will suffer, we are. They'll just make another console with a far less hardcore focus, while we may have to actually consider only playing on other hardware. Like I see them going iTV/micro console if the NX fails.

You shouldn't do anything you don't want to do. I was just making an observation.

What if they are already planning something like that for NX? Some signs point to that being a possibility.

Nikkei rumors state NX will be Android-based.

Miyamoto stated they are not interested in high-end specs.

Iwata said they plan on surprising with NX.

Mobile games/apps are meant to provide advertising for NX.

What this could point to is a weak, casual focused, gimmick based console.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Areym on 27 June 2015
Blob said:
I think everybody, even sony and Microsoft fans, should hope that the nx is successful. The gaming industry is bigger than fanboy console war lines, and a healthy one that covers all demographic bases is better for all parties.
If nx fails..... I don't want to see what nintendo would lower themselves too if this venture isn't profitable.

Why, exactly?



"Trick shot? The trick is NOT to get shot." - Lucian

Baalzamon on 27 June 2015

I really don't think they are as bad off as most people see them. They actually posted an overall net income in FY15. They have been consistently decreasing their debt in the past several years. They have a pretty healthy chunk of cash in their account, despite significant cash flow issues in prior years.



Money can't buy happiness. Just video games, which make me happy.

benji232 on 27 June 2015
Burek said:
Ruler said:

People would notice because nintendo wouldnt have a reason making that much software anymore. Just look at sega and their IPs.


Some people would notice, but most would not. Do you think that many of 170 million X360/PS3 users ever cared about Sega games. Some did, but most couldn't care less.

Same thing now. Nintendo fans would notice, but most people would not be affected by Nintendo's demise at all, and the industry would barely be affected. 

In a gaming world where one multiplat AAA console game in 18 months outsells the entire WiiU library of 30 months, and by a comfortable margin, it is obvious that Nintendo is just a minor league player in the industry.

My head hurts after reading both of your comments. So for you, every AAA games sell GTA5 levels? Interesting. I won't even bother arguing.



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M