Mario Maker will do nothing for sales at all, this is not going to be any kind of big Mario game release. Its a 2D level editor.

I'll never understand the comparisons to minecraft. Mario Maker is just a bloated level editor. Minecraft is just a bloated lego game. Completely different.

I don't think it will sell that well but I was wrong about Splatoon so I might be wrong about this game too.

I have played Minecraft in the past (back when you could fall through the center of the earth, no magic, no complex circuitry,etc.), and I will say that Mario Maker seems to have some of that potential that Minecraft had. However, while Mario Maker has potential, there are key differences that will not make it as big as you would like:

1) mario maker is for platforming, minecraft was open world. Having a customizable open world is better than a customizable platformer, because the open world has more options to become more. Art, 3d platforming, exploration, hunting, quests, minigames,... Minecraft pretty much gives you a world and lets you set the rules. As a 2d platformer on an existing franchise, mario maker has most of its rules already set.

2) there are huge diverse communities that have great influence over minecraft that is pretty much only possible on pc. There are modders that were willing to make the game quick and fun. There were server hosts that brought inspired games like hunger games to minecraft. There were youtube and twitch streamers that broadcast all the cool things about Minecraft. The only one of the that can happen for mario maker is youtube, but we know that youtube won't be supported early on, and I don't know about any streaming capabilities.

3) Mario Maker is on a limited console that has barely sold 10 million. Minecraft was on a capable platform that many own, and was soon spread to nearly every device but Nintendo. In other words, Mario Maker can pretty much only appeal to 15 million max (current wii u owners plus anyone who buys a wii u, lets assume +5 million). Minecraft being on ps4 is already more that 20 million (no need to add phone, tablet, pc, vita, xbox). No one thought "hmm if I want Minecraft, I have to give up wanting a ps4/xbox one for a pc," people will be thinking "if I want mario maker, the ps4/xbox one purchase needs to wait till after my wii u purchase."

Ultimately, Mario maker will do great sales (around but no higher than mario kart 8 or smash bros wii u). It may even give the wii u a mario kart style boost, but the console's fate has been determined when even smash bros couldn't save it

I don't say this to sound rude (ad many do) but it is startling how much ignorance is I'm your post. Of your logic was the case, something like mine craft would never have gotten even 1/20th of its size and people wouldn't demand for level editing features in games like mariokart and smash bros.

First of all, people overestimate Mario. Yes, there are millions of Mario fans but the Mario universe itself is no longer a massive draw for the average consumer. Mario fans are going to love a Mario level editor but people who don't already have a Wii U likely won't care.

Second, Minecraft is so popular because of freedom. It's almost limitless. That's not the same thing as a Mario level editor at all. The comparison is barely applicable.

It's going to sell pretty well but it's not going to grow the installed base or win over anyone who isn't already invested in the Nintendo ecosystem.

Yep, I could see the wii u at 20 million or more if mario maker was a launch title. It actually is the most gamepad centric title, and could have been the wii sports of the wii u. Instead we were left with zombiu (mature title, third party) and rayman legends (multiplat, third party) as the most gamepad heavy games, which is really sad

mario maker is pretty much the next step for 2d mario since the new super mario bros upgrade over super mario world. That is why some think it will be huge.

I personally think it will be fantastic as a new series and will thrive on future platforms, but I won't delude myself in thinking that it will change the wii u's fate. Simply because it is limited in many ways where minecraft was not 

all excellent points   and i will add:  The You-tube communnitty and Minecraft embraced each other and it was/is mutually benneficial in a hue way. to this day some of the most watched yo tubers are primarily minecraft guys/girls.  We know that won t happen w Mario Maker for a variety of reasons including Nintendo s You-tube policies.  

There is no doubt IMO the fact Nintendo (Wii u and 3DS ) consoles are among the only platforms you can t play Minecraft will coe back to hayunt them in a big way.   Nintendo has always "owned" the next generation of gamers but now Minecraft does (FAR more than Nintendo)  Even kids who have not played Minecraft yet begin as fans by watching dozens of Minecaft videos and follow them religiously-       Nintenod admittedly had difficulty developing games for the wii u early when it launched and to this day suffers major drooughts but still could not work w a 3rd party like Mojang to get Minecraft on its consoles even though vitually every other platform owner managed to do so .    

So now Nintendo s primarily down to its long time loyal fans plus some remaining family gamers -  They still have a part of the family gamig biz afterall just not the majority of it like they used to -     So there is NO WAY Mario Maker will be anywere near as popular as Minecarft-   It surely will not outsell Mario Kart 8 or Smash Bros-  

Minecraft lets you create massive structures--any shape or building you want. You can create your own world to hang out in with your friends, and you can all get together and build, and explore caves and fight monsters to boot. Mario Maker lets you build Mario levels. When you're done building a Mario level, you play a Mario level. I do think that people like to create, and this game has at least the potential to sell a good amount, but I can't compare it with the success of Minecraft. It's apples and oranges.

I will say that the gamepad could have been used to develop a whole slew of creative games, thus making it a truly unique platform, but Nintendo made almost no effort. Mario Maker's cool, Art Academy's alright. But imagine drawing out dungeons, and creating sprites, and etching caves and maps and any number of things in any number of genres. That could have been Wii U's hook. In fact, that's what I imagined when I first saw the thing.