Hypothetical: What if Super Mario Maker is more of a success than we can predict?

[midrange]

I have played Minecraft in the past (back when you could fall through the center of the earth, no magic, no complex circuitry,etc.), and I will say that Mario Maker seems to have some of that potential that Minecraft had. However, while Mario Maker has potential, there are key differences that will not make it as big as you would like:

1) mario maker is for platforming, minecraft was open world. Having a customizable open world is better than a customizable platformer, because the open world has more options to become more. Art, 3d platforming, exploration, hunting, quests, minigames,... Minecraft pretty much gives you a world and lets you set the rules. As a 2d platformer on an existing franchise, mario maker has most of its rules already set.

2) there are huge diverse communities that have great influence over minecraft that is pretty much only possible on pc. There are modders that were willing to make the game quick and fun. There were server hosts that brought inspired games like hunger games to minecraft. There were youtube and twitch streamers that broadcast all the cool things about Minecraft. The only one of the that can happen for mario maker is youtube, but we know that youtube won't be supported early on, and I don't know about any streaming capabilities.

3) Mario Maker is on a limited console that has barely sold 10 million. Minecraft was on a capable platform that many own, and was soon spread to nearly every device but Nintendo. In other words, Mario Maker can pretty much only appeal to 15 million max (current wii u owners plus anyone who buys a wii u, lets assume +5 million). Minecraft being on ps4 is already more that 20 million (no need to add phone, tablet, pc, vita, xbox). No one thought "hmm if I want Minecraft, I have to give up wanting a ps4/xbox one for a pc," people will be thinking "if I want mario maker, the ps4/xbox one purchase needs to wait till after my wii u purchase."

Ultimately, Mario maker will do great sales (around but no higher than mario kart 8 or smash bros wii u). It may even give the wii u a mario kart style boost, but the console's fate has been determined when even smash bros couldn't save it