Faxanadu said:
Green: I fully agree with you. Red: see my answer to red above. do you understand the gap in your logic? Yellow: SSBB, WiiFit, MK Wii, MP3 all say hello. How close to Xmas will they be released? Exactly. @Entroper: You are right. That is the ONLY valid reason. Access to a different customer segment. All other reasons fail. For Louie, Entroper to illustrate my point. A small case: Data: 60 million wiis, produced before Month 0, case period: 24 months Assumption: Each console owner buys one game every 3 months but NO MORE, starting at day of purchase. NO games older than 6 months are being bought (as in:; thank you, Louie.) Assumption: Shipped ALWAYS = sold Assumption: Xmas at 0, 12 and 24 months Business Case 1: Sell all 60 million at Month 0. Result after 24 Months: 60 Million consoles sold, 480 million games sold Business Case 2: Sell 20 million each Xmas. Result after 24 months: 60 million consoles sold, 260 million games sold Here I stop, even before mentioning the cost of warehouse space.... |
You are a hard one, aren´t you? 
Red: Yeah, I see where you are comming from but I´m talking about something different. Let me explain: You don´t know how many games a consumer who owned a console for several months buys in a year. You know for certain, though, that people who will buy a console will buy a game with it - that´s why Nintendo is getting a lot of Wii´s out there everytime big games are released. Usually there is one flagship title and as soon the next one is close to release you can expect people to buy the latest game rather than the old one: SSBB for example is the current lead title in Japan and the US - as soon as Mario Kart Wii hits people will probably buy the console with Mario Kart as it will be the current lead title then - of course both of those titles will see enormous legs, that´s why both of them will sell for a long time. But that´s more a general statement. That´s what I meant: If you buy the console in June you´ll buy title A but Nintendo wants you to buy title B - which is released in July for example. You know what I´m talking about now?
Yellow: Of course not during the Christmas period but we are talking about Nintendo. Just look at any other developer, most games are released during Q4 that´s what it is all about - during Christmas you have so much titles that people who buy the console will probably buy 2 or even 3 games with it because there are so many titles out. Or they will buy only one of them in which case good supply is even more important because you want to attract all groups at once, of course.
What do you think 3rd parties would do if Nintendo didn´t ship many Wii´s during Christmas? Again: 3rd Parties, Shops, Nintendo itself... there are many reasons for stockpiling and it is what all companies do. The market just doesn´t work the way you described it in your example, otherwise shops would never stockpile themselve - isn´t that prove enough for you? I just describe the way the industry works.
