If you'd have read yesterday's "Konami wants MGS4 to sell 1 million in Japan" thread, you'd have known that even most of the most blattant fanboys don't expect MGS4 to sell over a million in Japan. That will make the hardware boost 200.000 maximum, which is not even near domination.

FF is very big, but I wonder if one game can boost a console towards domination. (At this moment that would mean selling more than 3.5 million consoles with FF13, something I don't see happening).

So far Minna no Golf, DMC4, Dynasty Warriors and Yakuza have failed boosting PS3's hardware numbers in Japan significantly.

I don't expect Japan to support either of the HD consoles this gen. The rest of the world is very interesting though. 

The answer you get depends greatly on the time period you choose. Is there any particular reason to pick that period?

If you take the last year, this is what you get:

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 10th Mar 2007 to 08th Mar 2008:

Difference: 359787 for one year

6,7M/360K = over 18 years.

See my point?

A Minna nog Golf, DMC4, Dynasty warriror, etc. are not games like MGS4 and FF XIII. If you think that a FF won't boost a game console, well then you aren't really smart ^^

good figures and a good estimate.

i reckon going into 2009 mabey around june(ish)

i seriously dont belive 360 ill compete with ps3 once the ps3 starts pulling in the huge numbers, especially if ps2 is discontinued and ppl start to upgrade thier machines to a ps3.

if ps3 was reduced to about £249 or £229 that would be it.

If you'd actually read my post you'd seen that I expect FF to sell consoles, but that I doubted it would sell 3.5 million consoles (referring to dogweeds post that said FF + MGS4 would bring domination for PS3).

Minna no Golf and Dynasty Warriors are in fact bigger franchises in Japan than MGS, if you don't believe me check the PS2 all time best sellers and you'll find Minna at #7 and Dynasty Warriors at #9, MGS2 and 3 are at #23 and 24.

 Yeah,  I could see why it may look biased, but if I were to take things from March of last year things would be so blatantly pro 360 that the whole thread would be reguarded as B.S. (BTW what you did was cherry picking) Keep in mind, what period of time is a better model for future sales? Now or a year ago. The market changes and evolves, and one thing that is evidant is that it's shifting towards the PS3 a bit for several reasons. As of right now you would have to be defying logic to believe that the 360 will maintain a lead this generation. I'm no fanboy, but the sales are spelling out the future.

Indeed, watch and learn: http://www.akihabaranews.com/en/news-14154-New+PS3+bundle+in+Japan,+Mina+No+Golf+included!.html

My point was that however you draw your straight lines, they won't make much sense since the market doesn't follow straight lines.

So I'm not saying that last year is a better period than this calendar year, I'm saying no periods are much use. Just try using the data from this week (around 40k) and you'll get quite a different result.

Good prediction however your averaging the PS3 and 360's sales , I'm not saying that i'm sorta expert (because i'm not) but your calculations don't seem to take into consideration the effect of Exclusive titles , Home , Blu-Ray these factors alone could reduce the time it takes to around Spring-Summer '09.