Nice prediction although exclusives will make a difference and also I think the 360 will lose more steam so I think it might be a bit earlier than Novemeber.

14th October 2009 is the day.

Acording to NPD November sales are 3x October sales and December sales are 2x November sales. This roughly means that Holiday boost is equal around 27 additional weeks (I won't be going into details). So the result would be around 80 weeks. But when GTA hits all those calculations become inacurate.

Edited by user: 

-Posted in the wrong thread-

I wonder how long 'till the Wii outsells Xbox 360 and PS3 combined, LTD.

cant really predict since it matters on price drops...games etc

 I agree with the fact that many of the things you listed will have an effect on sales but the problem is, there aren't any ways to quantify each of the variables. I noted at the beggining of the first post that there will be variables that come into play, but for the most part this pace will hold true. If there is any difference in time I would expect that the PS3 would reach the mark maybe a moth or two sooner than November. But also keep in mind that the pace of 63,460 set in the first two months of the year is dropping a little and now I'm expecting the PS3 to only outsell the 360 by around 30,000 consoles including Japan this week. Keep your head up though because I believe catching up that quickly is a respectable feat.

Japan is definitely a wild card. It could become a whole different game if they ever embraced the PS3 over there.

 Yes we do have to assume but then again what is a prediction? I'm pretty confident that things will hold up though. I have a feeling that the PS3 will gain steam later in the year so the fist week sales close to 300,000 will no longer skew the data.