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Magnific0 said:
I serioulsy doubt it will take so long if Japan finally starts buying the system as expected once a number of titles are released for them. Also, Xbox 360 selling below $400 has made little difference for its sales year to year, which leads me to believe a PS3 below the $400 range will get a bigger boost than what Xbox would get below $300. By next X-mas holidays a $300 PS3 with a robust library of great exclusives + the best multiplatforms combined with an emerging Blu-ray interest (more movies, more HDTVs sold, and cheaper players, something you couldn't factor in last year sales) will definitely give it the edge to outsell 360 by a larger margin than what "the current pace" may show right now.

 I agree with the fact that many of the things you listed will have an effect on sales but the problem is, there aren't any ways to quantify each of the variables. I noted at the beggining of the first post that there will be variables that come into play, but for the most part this pace will hold true. If there is any difference in time I would expect that the PS3 would reach the mark maybe a moth or two sooner than November. But also keep in mind that the pace of 63,460 set in the first two months of the year is dropping a little and now I'm expecting the PS3 to only outsell the 360 by around 30,000 consoles including Japan this week. Keep your head up though because I believe catching up that quickly is a respectable feat.