Rock_on_2008 said: Come on PS3 sales will boost dramatically with huge exclusive games being released this year including: GT Prologue 5 (5 million seller), GTA 4(8 million seller), Kill Zone 2 (5 million seller), Little Big Planet (4 million seller) and Resistance 2 (5 million seller). *Totals in brackets are expected number of that game to be sold this year only on the PS3 Quite possible total PS3 console sales could be well over 25 and close to 30 million consoles worlwide. 27million or 28 million PS3 consoles worldwide by 31/12/08 will not be that far off. Nintendo will never get to 50% market share for this generation. It will never, ever happen. The Wii can not keep up with demand and production is limited. PS3 will overtake the XBox 360 in world wide console sales during December 2008. |
Resistance 2=5 million? The original benefited from being the only heavy hitter in the PS3 launch window and for it's first few months and after all of that it's at 2.5 million. It enjoyed a very healthy attach rate to go along with that. Resistance will be directly competing with Killzone 2 and if the hype works on the latter, you can be rest assured it can take away from the former. There is also a heavier FPS market now, so PS3 owners will not have to scramble for the only FPS available like they did at launch. With this being an FPS, you're in addition looking at only two markets to sell it in because Japan will not eat this game up no matter how good it is. (This takes away nothing from the quality of the series, I'm just speaking sales)
Gran Turismo 5 Prologue=5 million? Don't bet on it. GT Concept 2001 Tokyo sold 1.6 million in two regions and GT 4 Prologue sold 1.4 million in two regions. Considering how Others is as big a GT market as America, tack on an extra million for each and you'll have respectable numbers. This brings GT 5 Prologue to 2.5-2.7 million. Add on another 1.3 million for European bundles which is very generous and you have 4 million. You must understand that many people are aware that GT 5 Prologue is not GT 5 and will hold out till this Winter for the big daddy.
Killzone 2=5 million? The original sold roughly 2 million worldwide(VG Chartz has incomplete data for the game so I went elsewhere) and had a good portion of the same "Halo Killer" hype that this one does. Also expect Resistance 2 to cut into sales. I won't completely deny this claim however, because it could happen. It's the best prediction you've made out of any of them.
Little Big Planet=4 million? You must be out of your mind. Uncharted, Heavenly Sword, Warhawk, Resistance and Lair all add up to about 4.8 million in sales and every one of those games have more mainstream appeal than Little Big Planet. If they combined can't crack 5 million I don't see how Little Big Planet is going to. That title, while awesome, is an original IP, very niche and will be lucky to hit 1.5 million without a bundle.
GTA 4=8 million? The best selling GTA game is San Andreas with almost 16 million so I can see this if half the sales go to the PS3 since I firmly believe too that GTA IV can match San Andreas between both platforms. I say it's slightly high, but within reach. I personally see a 60/40 360/PS3 split happening because GTA's biggest market is NA and 360 still has a wide margin of console owners in that region. Japan will be a non-issue becasue they don't buy GTA, so Sony's victory in that region will not help any. My prediction is 6 million.
Your 25-30 million consoles worldwide is seriously out there considering that you're speaking about PS2 numbers, and I'm not even sure PS2 got that high in a single year. Even the Wii can't make those numbers. How do you expect PS3 to gain so much ground in so little time?