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Forums - Nintendo - Estimation of 3DS Software Sales Figures at the end of 2015. FINAL RESULTS!

Majora's Mask 3D sold over 2M by the end of March already.

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2015/150507_4e.pdf



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PAOerfulone said:

So, this is my very first thread that I shall be authoring for this site. So to start out with a bang, I decided to take all the sales data from the top 31 3DS games according to VGChartz, do a little bit of math, and estimate where all of those games will be at in terms of sales figures by the end of the year.
(Note: This will not include the week where the end of December 2015 and beginning of January 2016 take place in the same week.)
So with that said. Here are the my estimations of what I believe the sales figures for the top 40 best selling Nintendo 3DS games, according to VGChartz, will be by the end of the year of 2015!

1)      Pokemon X/Y                    Year End 2014: 12.58           7/11: 12.95                     Year End 2015: 13.37

2)      Mario Kart 7                       Year End 2014:  10.51         7/11: 10.87                        Year End 2015: 11.25

3)      Super Mario 3D Land      Year End 2014: 10.02            7/11: 10.24                      Year End 2015: 10.44

4)      New Super Mario Bros. 2  Year End 2014: 8.51            7/11: 8.80                    Year End 2015: 9.07

5)      Pokemon Omega Ruby
Alpha Sapphire                    Year End 2014: 7.34              7/11: 8.58                          Year End 2015: 10.68

6)      Animal Crossing: New
Leaf                                       Year End 2014: 7.56              7/11: 7.95                        Year End 2015: 8.33

7)      Super Smash Bros.
3DS                                        Year End 2014: 5.47           7/11: 6.29                          Year End 2015: 7.56

8)      Luigi’s Mansion Dark
Moon                                    Year End 2014: 4.08          7/11: 4.23                          Year End 2015: 4.33

9)      Tomodachi Life                  Year End 2014: 3.81           7/04: 4.22                          Year End 2015: 4.70

10)   The Legend of Zelda:
Ocarina of Time 3D          Year End 2014: 3.57              7/11: 3.72                          Year End 2015: 3.83

11)   Nintendogs + cats            Year End 2014: 3.51              7/11: 3.58                          Year End 2015: 3.63

12)   Monster Hunter 4            Year End 2014: 3.43               7/11: 3.44                          Year End 2015: 3.45

14)   Monster Hunter 4
Ultimate                              Year End 2014: 2.41              7/11: 3.35                         Year End 2015: 3.42+West

13)   Youkai Watch 2 Ganso/
Honke                                   Year End 2014: 3.06              7/11: 3.14                          Year End 2015: 3.32

15)   Monster Hunter Tri          Year End 2014: 2.69                7/11: 2.73                          Year End 2015: 2.80

16)   Youkai Watch 2
Shinuchi                               Year End 2014: 2.25                7/11: 2.63                          Year End 2015: 3.03 EDIT

17)   The Legend of Zelda: A
Link Between Worlds         Year End 2014: 2.38                7/11: 2.52                          Year End 2015: 2.70

18)   Paper Mario: Sticker
Star                                        Year End 2014: 2.12               7/11: 2.17                          Year End 2015: 2.22

19)   Mario & Luigi: Dream
Team                                     Year End 2014: 1.81              7/11: 1.88                          Year End 2015: 1.94

20)   The Legend of Zelda:   February 14, 2014: 0.86            7/11: 1.78                           Year End 2015: 2.00+      
Majora's Mask 3D

21)   Donkey Kong Country
Returns                                Year End 2014: 1.59               7/11: 1.68                          Year End 2015: 1.77

22)   Fire Emblem:
Awakening                         Year End 2014: 1.50          7/11: 1.64                          Year End 2015: 1.79

23)   Professor Layton & the
Mask of Miracle                     Year End 2014: 1.55          7/11: 1.61                          Year End 2015: 1.69

 

24)   Puzzles & Dragons           Year End 2014: 1.49          7/11: 1.50                          Year End 2015: 1.52+West

25)   Kirby: Triple Deluxe         Year End 2014: 1.33          7/11: 1.49                         Year End 2015: 1.67

26)   Kingdom Hearts 3D:
Dream Drop Distance     Year End 2014: 1.43          7/11: 1.48                          Year End 2015: 1.53

 

27)   Mario Party: Island Tour Year End 2014: 1.27          7/11: 1.40                       Year End 2015: 1.52

28)   Youkai Watch                     Year End 2014: 1.31          7/11: 1.33                          Year End 2015: 1.35+West

29)   Lego City Undercover    Year End 2014: 1.18          7/11: 1.28                          Year End 2015: 1.40

30)   Dragon Quest VII             Year End 2014: 1.24          7/11: 1.26                          Year End 2015: 1.24

12)   Bravely Default: Flying     Year End 2014: 1.12          7/11: 1.22                         Year End 2015: 1.29
Fairy

 

21)   Kid Icarus: Uprising          Year End 2014: 1.18          7/11: 1.21                        Year End 2015: 1.23

 

33) Pokemon Mystery Dungeon:
  Gates to Infinity                  Year End 2014: 1.15        7/11: 1.18                         Year End 2015: 1.20

34) Mario & Sonic at the London
2012 Olympic Games            Year End 2014: 1.15       7/11: 1.16                         Year End 2015: 1.17

35) Super Street Fighter IV:
3D Edition                               Year End 2014:  1.10      7/11: 1.13                         Year End 2015: 1.16

36) Pokemon Rumble Blast         Year End 2014:  1.09      7/11: 1.10                        Year End 2015: 1.11

37) Yoshi's New Island                  Year End 2014:  0.97      7/11: 1.05                        Year End 2015: 1.10

38) LEGO Star Wars III: The
Clone Wars                              Year End 2014: 0.99       7/11: 1.01                        Year End 2015:  1.03

39) Dragon Quest Monsters:
Terry's Wonderland 3D          Year End 2014: 0.96      7/11: 0.96                        Year End 2015: 0.96

40) Sonic Generations                    Year End 2014: 0.91     7/11: 0.94                         Year End 2015: 0.97

 



Now these figures are entirely hypothetical and are strictly my estimations based on the math that I've done. Most of these figures could very easily be either waay overtracked, or waay undertracked, or some may be close, but not quite there, and some may be right on the money. Only time will tell.
But in the mean time, let's all just enjoy it! :)

N


Bolded is in reply to Samus' comment. It's very possible that at this point, Majora's Mask 3D is closing in on 3 million.
But I'm just going off of VGChartz' tracking, as ludicrous as that sounds.



Nice to see that the 3DS has a great amount of million sellers! I'll have to dig around and see how it stacks up to prior Nintendo handhelds. Also if these numbers are just from VGC I'm assuming that digital isn't counted. Then these numbers can only be underestimations (unless they were overtracked or whatnot).



Yep. VGChartz estimates is correct. (Or incorrect since they don't track digital) For example, Nintendo's official website had Pokemon X/Y at 13.99 million units by 30 June 2015. And Animal Crossing is so undertracked it's ridiculous. (Also, Super Mario 3D Land is slighty overtracked) But still, very solid software figures overall from the 3DS.
As for how it might stack up to prior handhelds.
I'd expect the 3DS to surpass the original Game Boy/Game Boy Color in total million sellers. (Right now it's, 38 vs 52) But not in total software overall.
I think it'll be vice versa in Comparison with the Game Boy Advance. I think the 3DS will finish with less million sellers than the Game Boy Advance (38 vs 70), but surpass it in software sales totals.
And I don't think ANY handheld Nintendo makes from now on will ever match the DS in any category.



You know, looking back at this chain of comments between you and me is pretty funny... Because according to Nintendo's website, at the end of June it was already well of 9 million, and given it's insane legs, I wouldn't be surprised if by the end of September it's already passed 10 million, WELL before the holiday season! XD
I guess that's what happens when I base a list off of VGChartz's tracking.



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7/18 Numbers Added!
Kirby is now tied with Puzzles and Dragons!



Pokemon X/Y is closing in on 13 million! (Although if you saw Nintendo's earnings through ^/31, it is already well over 14 million at this point)
Animal Crossing is closing in on 8 million! (Although it's closing in on 10 million in all actuality)
And Kirby is on the verge of passing Puzzles and Dragons!
These next few weeks shall be quite interesting!
Also, some new releases are about to rapidly shake things up with the next numbers to be posted in the following months (Youkai Watch Busters, Dragon Quest VIII, Animal Crossing: HHD, and pretty soon Monster Hunter X)
So some games that are around 35-40 will be bumped out of the top 40 list as these games shred right through the charts!
So look forward to that!



I apologize for the very late updates.
Had a long busy day at work.
Anyways,
7/25 numbers added!



New million seller! Woo!

Next up: Happy Home Designer!



Official Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE Thread

                                      

8/01 Numbers have been added and with a new string of 3DS games to follow, and fall/holiday season looming around the corner, things are about to get interesting!